Costs and liabilities of US public pension systems in a low-return environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Gang Chen ◽  
David Matkin ◽  
Hyewon Kang
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Moderating Effects ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Unfunded Liabilities ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Investment Portfolios

Abstract In recent years, a growing number of capital market professionals have projected a low-return environment in US investment portfolios – where returns in most asset classes are expected to drop below historical rates. While these specific forecasts may not fully materialize, it is natural for cyclical investment markets to go through extended periods of lower returns, creating significant risks for public pension systems which rely on investment returns to sustain their long-term solvency and offset budgetary contributions. This paper uses a simulation method to examine the long-term effect of a low-return environment on the unfunded liabilities and contribution costs of US public pension systems while considering the moderating effects of asset allocation strategies, amortization approaches, and contribution policies.

scholarly journals Sustainability of the Funded Ratio and Asset Allocation Choice of State Public Pension Plans

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 366
Author(s):  
Amod Choudhary ◽  
Nikolaos Papanikolaou
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pension Plans ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Current Member ◽  
Public Pension Plans

The paper examines State Public Pension Plans in the United States and the sustainability of their funded ratios. The authors apply a panel logit with random effects regression model of asset allocation choice and average returns during fiscal years 2001 to 2015. There are three key factors which adequately fund State Public Pension Plans: (i) current member contributions, (ii) members’ employer contributions, and (iii) investment returns on those contributions. Returns on those contributions depend heavily on allocation choice of those funds in traditional and alternative investments. Alternatives are generally assumed to provide higher average returns with higher risk. This paper shows that in the long-term, investment in traditional assets such as bonds, equities and short-term cash have a higher likelihood of funding State Public Pension Plan’s payment obligations to beneficiaries.

scholarly journals Pension Funding and the Actuarial Assumption Concerning Investment Returns

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 289-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Iqbal Owadally
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Pension Plans ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Pension Liabilities

An assumption concerning the long-term rate of return on assets is made by actuaries when they value defined-benefit pension plans. There is a distinction between this assumption and the discount rate used to value pension liabilities, as the value placed on liabilities does not depend on asset allocation in the pension fund. The more conservative the investment return assumption is, the larger planned initial contributions are, and the faster benefits are funded. A conservative investment return assumption, however, also leads to long-term surpluses in the plan, as is shown for two practical actuarial funding methods. Long-term deficits result from an optimistic assumption. Neither outcome is desirable as, in the long term, pension plan assets should be accumulated to meet the pension liabilities valued at a suitable discount rate. A third method is devised that avoids such persistent surpluses and deficits regardless of conservatism or optimism in the assumed investment return.

scholarly journals Analyzing Retirement Withdrawal Strategies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Rietz ◽  
Tim Blumenschein ◽  
Spencer Crough ◽  
Albert Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Relative Impact ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Lifetime Income ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Constant Percentage

An optimal withdrawal strategy beginning at age 65 provides a lifetime income from a portfolio, adjusted annually for inflation, while reducing the probability of living in financial ruin to an ac-ceptable level. This paper analyzes the probability of living in financial ruin, potentially for multiple years, rather than just the event of ruin. A stochastic Excel model was developed to simulate the effect of varying investment returns on a portfolio with two asset classes; large company stocks and long-term government bonds. A stochastic model is also applied to retiree mortality. The following variables were analyzed to determine their relative impact on withdrawal strategies: • Withdrawing a constant percentage of the portfolio, • Gender, • Initial asset allocation, • Asset allocation rebalancing methods, and • Low investment return environments. For both genders and most withdrawal rates, an approximately equal initial asset allocation of stocks and bonds, combined with a level rebalancing function, provided the lowest probability of living in financial ruin. Because each investment return followed its own probability distribution function, some retirees experienced financial ruin even in the most conservative simulations.

scholarly journals Inefficiency of pension investment regulation: case of Russia

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 148-159
Author(s):  
Alexander Nepp
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Replacement Rate ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Regulatory Measures ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Investment Portfolios ◽  
Pension Benefits

Inflation risks are one of the major factors faced by funded pension systems. Investment risks affect such key parameters of pension systems as the amount of pension contributions and payments. In order to limit the exposure of pension systems to such risks, governments have introduced instrumental and geographical restrictions on pension investments. These measures are particularly popular in developing countries. This article discusses the efficiency of pension investment regulation in Russia and demonstrates the inadequacy of the current regulatory measures. Authors show that the negative investment results of pension market players were caused by inefficient government regulation. Authors also show that pension market players should be given more freedom in their investments and that instrumental and geographical restrictions should be removed. Was proposed to diversify investment portfolios into stocks traded on the leading stock markets, which would allow to increase investment returns and maintain the risk at the current level. Thus, it would be reasonable to invest 76% of funds into foreign assets, which will increase pension benefits and the replacement rate by 2.54 times. If we keep the geographical barriers but lift the restrictions on equity investments, the growth will be 1.34 times.

scholarly journals Pension Funding and the Actuarial Assumption Concerning Investment Returns

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Iqbal Owadally
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Pension Plans ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Pension Liabilities

An assumption concerning the long-term rate of return on assets is made by actuaries when they value defined-benefit pension plans. There is a distinction between this assumption and the discount rate used to value pension liabilities, as the value placed on liabilities does not depend on asset allocation in the pension fund. The more conservative the investment return assumption is, the larger planned initial contributions are, and the faster benefits are funded. A conservative investment return assumption, however, also leads to long-term surpluses in the plan, as is shown for two practical actuarial funding methods. Long-term deficits result from an optimistic assumption. Neither outcome is desirable as, in the long term, pension plan assets should be accumulated to meet the pension liabilities valued at a suitable discount rate. A third method is devised that avoids such persistent surpluses and deficits regardless of conservatism or optimism in the assumed investment return.

scholarly journals CAN YALE ENDOWMENT MODEL BE APPLIED FOR ISLAMIC PENSION FUND?

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 131-162
Author(s):  
Yunice Karina Tumewang
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Development Goals

This paper examines Yale Endowment model and proposes a modified investment model to achieve an investment objective of mainstream investors and to comply with Sharia principle. The proposed model utilizes Islamic CAPM to formulate the optimal asset allocation for Islamic pension fund’s portfolio. It will offer a strong investment strong which could be adopted by government to manage the Islamic pension fund and raise the awareness of society to see the great potential of Islamic pension fund in the future. Promoting an efficient and productive investment of pension-fund assets not only helps reaching Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing important sources of long-term finance for development, supporting financial inclusion and ensuring that poverty among the elderly is alleviated by a strong growth and resilience of income in retirement through pension systems that have broad coverage.

A long-term effect of subliminally presented words

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas T. Breuer ◽  
Michael E. J. Masson ◽  
Glen E. Bodner
Keyword(s):  
Term Effect ◽  
Long Term Effect
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