Potential mechanism for response of El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability to change in land surface energy budget

2004 ◽  
Vol 109 (D21) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
Edwin K. Schneider ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Potential Mechanism

scholarly journals Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Niño Southern Oscillation case study

2008 ◽  
Vol 367 (1890) ◽  
pp. 917-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debbie Putt ◽  
Keith Haines ◽  
Robert Gurney ◽  
Chunlei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation

The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

scholarly journals Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño Southern Oscillation at the global scale

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 10231-10276
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
S. Eisner ◽  
M. Flörke ◽  
M. D. Dettinger ◽  
M. Kummu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Flood Impacts ◽  
River Floods

Abstract. Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. Here, we present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on river floods. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model, and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–1999, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

scholarly journals Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the global scale

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
S. Eisner ◽  
M. Flörke ◽  
M. D. Dettinger ◽  
M. Kummu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
River Floods

Abstract. Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y PESQUERÍAS EN EL ECUADOR.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Chavarría Viteri ◽  
Dennis Tomalá Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Palabras Clave

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian  fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

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