scholarly journals Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations of stratospheric ozone-temperature coupling between 1950 and 2005

2008 ◽  
Vol 113 (D12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Pawson ◽  
Richard S. Stolarski ◽  
Anne R. Douglass ◽  
Paul A. Newman ◽  
J. Eric Nielsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
System Chemistry

scholarly journals Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan P. Boisier ◽  
Camila Alvarez-Garreton ◽  
Raúl R. Cordero ◽  
Alessandro Damiani ◽  
Laura Gallardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Southern Chile ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.

Impact of Lagrangian transport on lower-stratospheric water vapor and radiative balance in a climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Charlesworth ◽  
Felix Plöger ◽  
Patrick Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chem Phys ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Lagrangian Transport ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>A robust result of climate model simulations is the moistening of the stratosphere.<br>Many models show their strongest changes in stratospheric water vapor in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, a change which could have substantial climate feedbacks (e.g. Banerjee et al. 2019). However, models are also heavily wet-biased in this region when compared to observations (Keeble et al. 2020), presenting some uncertainty on the robustness of these model results.</p><p>In this study, we investigate the contribution of the choice of model transport scheme to this wet bias using a climate model (EMAC) coupled with two transport schemes: the standard EMAC flux-form semi-Lagrangian (FFSL) scheme and the fully-Lagrangian scheme of CLaMS. This experiment has the advantage of analytical clarity in that the dynamical fields driving both transport schemes are identical. Prior work using this tool has shown large differences in transport timecales within the extratropical lowermost stratosphere depending on the transport scheme used (Charlesworth et al. 2020). </p><p>These results also suggested that EMAC-CLaMS should reduce the transport of water vapor into this region, but calculations of water vapor fields using this tool were not performed until now. We present the results of that work, comparing the water vapor fields calculated using EMAC-CLaMS and EMAC-FFSL online. Two model simulations were performed, wherein each water vapor field was used to drive radiation calculations, such that the radiative consequences of applying one transport scheme or the other could be assessed.</p><p>References:</p><p>Banerjee, A., Chiodo, G., Previdi, M. <em>et al.</em> Stratospheric water vapor: an important climate feedback. <em>Clim Dyn</em> <strong>53, </strong>1697–1710 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04721-4</p><p>Keeble, J., Hassler, B., Banerjee, A., Checa-Garcia, R., Chiodo, G., Davis, S., Eyring, V., Griffiths, P. T., Morgenstern, O., Nowack, P., Zeng, G., Zhang, J., Bodeker, G., Cugnet, D., Danabasoglu, G., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Li, L., Michou, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Park, S., and Wu, T.: Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapor changes in CMIP6 models from 1850–2100, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1202, in review, 2020. </p><p>Charlesworth, E. J., Dugstad, A.-K., Fritsch, F., Jöckel, P., and Plöger, F.: Impact of Lagrangian transport on lower-stratospheric transport timescales in a climate model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15227–15245, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15227-2020, 2020. </p>

AN ASSEMBLY OF PRESCRIBED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR THE CLIMATE-MODEL SIMULATIONS ACROSS THE PERMO-TRIASSIC BOUNDARY(PTB)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitali D. Gautam ◽  
◽  
Arne Winguth ◽  
Cornelia Winguth ◽  
Christopher Scotese ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Triassic Boundary ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

scholarly journals Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman ◽  
David Paynter ◽  
V. Ramaswamy
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Solar Spectrum ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Energy Imbalance ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractThe observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Using climate model simulations, we show that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that this trend can be explained by internal variability. Instead, TEEI is achieved only upon accounting for the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing and the associated climate response. TEEI is driven by a large decrease in reflected solar radiation and a small increase in emitted infrared radiation. This is because recent changes in forcing and feedbacks are additive in the solar spectrum, while being nearly offset by each other in the infrared. We conclude that the satellite record provides clear evidence of a human-influenced climate system.

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