scholarly journals Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan P. Boisier ◽  
Camila Alvarez-Garreton ◽  
Raúl R. Cordero ◽  
Alessandro Damiani ◽  
Laura Gallardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Southern Chile ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.

scholarly journals Comparison and assessment of large-scale surface temperature in climate model simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-85
Author(s):  
Raquel Barata ◽  
Raquel Prado ◽  
Bruno Sansó
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract. We present a data-driven approach to assess and compare the behavior of large-scale spatial averages of surface temperature in climate model simulations and in observational products. We rely on univariate and multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) techniques to estimate both long-term and seasonal changes in temperature. The residuals from the DLM analyses capture the internal variability of the climate system and exhibit complex temporal autocorrelation structure. To characterize this internal variability, we explore the structure of these residuals using univariate and multivariate autoregressive (AR) models. As a proof of concept that can easily be extended to other climate models, we apply our approach to one particular climate model (MIROC5). Our results illustrate model versus data differences in both long-term and seasonal changes in temperature. Despite differences in the underlying factors contributing to variability, the different types of simulation yield very similar spectral estimates of internal temperature variability. In general, we find that there is no evidence that the MIROC5 model systematically underestimates the amplitude of observed surface temperature variability on multi-decadal timescales – a finding that has considerable relevance regarding efforts to identify anthropogenic “fingerprints” in observational surface temperature data. Our methodology and results present a novel approach to obtaining data-driven estimates of climate variability for purposes of model evaluation.

scholarly journals Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1653-1685 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Brohan ◽  
R. Allan ◽  
E. Freeman ◽  
D. Wheeler ◽  
C. Wilkinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
East India Company ◽  
Temperature History ◽  
British Library ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations. As the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East-India Company (EEIC), and their archives have been preserved in the British Library. Inspection of those archives revealed 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure, and subjective estimates of wind speed and direction, from voyages across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans between 1789 and 1834. Those records have been extracted and digitised, providing 273 000 new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5 °C). This provides a powerful out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions – supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this – such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

scholarly journals Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Slater ◽  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Malcolm McMillan ◽  
Amber Leeson ◽  
Lin Gilbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractRunoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased over recent decades affecting global sea level, regional ocean circulation, and coastal marine ecosystems, and it now accounts for most of the contemporary mass imbalance. Estimates of runoff are typically derived from regional climate models because satellite records have been limited to assessments of melting extent. Here, we use CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry to produce direct measurements of Greenland’s runoff variability, based on seasonal changes in the ice sheet’s surface elevation. Between 2011 and 2020, Greenland’s ablation zone thinned on average by 1.4 ± 0.4 m each summer and thickened by 0.9 ± 0.4 m each winter. By adjusting for the steady-state divergence of ice, we estimate that runoff was 357 ± 58 Gt/yr on average – in close agreement with regional climate model simulations (root mean square difference of 47 to 60 Gt/yr). As well as being 21 % higher between 2011 and 2020 than over the preceding three decades, runoff is now also 60 % more variable from year-to-year as a consequence of large-scale fluctuations in atmospheric circulation. Because this variability is not captured in global climate model simulations, our satellite record of runoff should help to refine them and improve confidence in their projections.

scholarly journals North American Winter Dipole: Observed and Simulated Changes in Circulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Tang Chien ◽  
S.-Y. Simon Wang ◽  
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto ◽  
Steve L. Voelker ◽  
Jonathan D. D. Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Northwestern North America

In recent years, a pair of large-scale circulation patterns consisting of an anomalous ridge over northwestern North America and trough over northeastern North America was found to accompany extreme winter weather events such as the 2013–2015 California drought and eastern U.S. cold outbreaks. Referred to as the North American winter dipole (NAWD), previous studies have found both a marked natural variability and a warming-induced amplification trend in the NAWD. In this study, we utilized multiple global reanalysis datasets and existing climate model simulations to examine the variability of the winter planetary wave patterns over North America and to better understand how it is likely to change in the future. We compared between pre- and post-1980 periods to identify changes to the circulation variations based on empirical analysis. It was found that the leading pattern of the winter planetary waves has changed, from the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode to a spatially shifted mode such as NAWD. Further, the potential influence of global warming on NAWD was examined using multiple climate model simulations.

scholarly journals Global Warming and Western North Pacific Typhoon Activity from an Observational Perspective

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590-4602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Kin Sik Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions.

scholarly journals Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1551-1563 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Brohan ◽  
R. Allan ◽  
E. Freeman ◽  
D. Wheeler ◽  
C. Wilkinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
East India Company ◽  
Temperature History ◽  
British Library ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores, etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations. As the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East India Company (EEIC), and their archives have been preserved in the British Library. Inspection of those archives revealed 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure, and subjective estimates of wind speed and direction, from voyages across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans between 1789 and 1834. Those records have been extracted and digitised, providing 273 000 new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5 °C). This provides an out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions – supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this – such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

scholarly journals The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3427-3446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Notz ◽  
Alexandra Jahn ◽  
Marika Holland ◽  
Elizabeth Hunke ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Ice Model

Abstract. A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standard for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. In this contribution, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.

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