Modeling ice shelf water overflow and bottom water formation in the southern Weddell Sea

Deep and bottom water formation regions have long been recognized to be efficient vectors for carbon transfer to depth, leading to carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries or more. Precursors of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) are formed on the Weddell Sea continental shelf as a consequence of buoyancy loss of surface waters at the ice-ocean or atmosphere-ocean interface, which suggests that any change in water mass transformation rates in this area affects global carbon cycling and hence climate. Many of the models previously used to assess AABW formation in present and future climates contained only crude representations of ocean-ice shelf interaction. Numerical simulations often featured spurious deep convection in the open ocean, and changes in carbon sequestration have not yet been assessed at all. Here, we present results from the global model FESOM-REcoM, which was run on a mesh with elevated grid resolution in the Weddell Sea and which includes an explicit representation of sea ice and ice shelves. Forcing this model with ssp585 scenario output from the AWI Climate Model, we assess changes over the 21st century in the formation and northward export of dense waters and the associated carbon fluxes within and out of the Weddell Sea. We find that the northward transport of dense deep waters (&#963;2>37.2 kg m-3 below 2000 m) across the SR4 transect, which connects the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula with the eastern Weddell Sea, declines from 4 Sv to 2.9 Sv by the year 2100. Concurrently, despite the simulated continuous increase in surface ocean CO2 uptake in the Weddell Sea over the 21st century, the carbon transported northward with dense deep waters declines from 3.5 Pg C yr-1 to 2.5 Pg C yr-1, demonstrating the dominant role of dense water formation rates for carbon sequestration. Using the water mass transformation framework, we find that south of SR4, the formation of downwelling dense waters declines from 3.5 Sv in the 1990s to 1.6 Sv in the 2090s, a direct result of the 18% lower sea-ice formation in the area, the increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the continental shelf, and 50% higher ice shelf basal melt rates. Given that the reduced formation of downwelling water masses additionally occurs at lighter densities in FESOM-REcoM in the 2090s, this will directly impact the depth at which any additional oceanic carbon uptake is stored, with consequences for long-term carbon sequestration.

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Variability Of Thermohaline Circulation Under An Ice Shelf

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0260305500009009 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 338

Author(s):

H.H. Hellmer

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Boundary Conditions ◽

Thermohaline Circulation ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Melting Zone ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

Shelf Water ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Grounding Line ◽

Ice Shelf Water

The production of Antarctic Bottom Water is mainly influenced by Ice Shelf Water, which is formed through the modification of shelf water masses under huge ice shelves. To simulate this modification a two-dimensional thermohaline circulation model has been developed for a section perpendicular to the ice-shelf edge. Hydrographic data from the Filchner Depression enter into the model as boundary conditions. In the outflow region they also serve as a verification of model results. The standard solution reveals two circulation cells. The dominant one transports shelf water near the bottom toward the grounding line, where it begins to ascend along the inclined ice shelf. The contact with the ice shelf causes melting with a maximum rate of 1.5 m a−1 at the grounding line. Freezing and therefore the accumulation of “sea ice” at the bottom of the ice shelf occurs at the end of the melting zone at a rate on the order of 0.1 ma−1. Both rates are comparable with values estimated or predicted by models concerning ice-shelf dynamics. As one example of model sensitivity to changing boundary conditions, a higher sea-ice production in the southern Weddell Sea, as might be expected for a general climatic cooling event, is assumed. The resultant decrease/ increase in temperature/salinity of the inflow (Western Shelf Water) reduces the circulation under the ice shelf and therefore the outflow of Ice Shelf Water by 40%. The maximum melting and freezing rate decreases by 0.1 ma−1 and 0.01 m a−1, respectively. and the freezing zone shifts toward the grounding line by 100 km. In general the intensity of the circulation cells, the characteristics of Ice Shelf Water, the distribution of melting and freezing zones and the melting and freezing rates differ from the standard results with changing boundary conditions. These are the temperature and salinity of the inflow, the surface temperature at the top, and the extension and morphology of the ice shelf.

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