scholarly journals Correcting the mathematical structure of a hydrological model via Bayesian data assimilation

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Bulygina ◽  
Hoshin Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Bayesian Data Assimilation

scholarly journals Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall–runoff model

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Coustau ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
V. Borrell-Estupina ◽  
C. Bouvier ◽  
O. Thual
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Southern France ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Event Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables) in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR). For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i) to select the parameter(s) which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii) to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii) to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

scholarly journals Remotely sensed latent heat fluxes for improving model predictions of soil moisture: a case study

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 6179-6205
Author(s):  
J. M. Schuurmans ◽  
F. C. van Geer ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Small Catchment

Abstract. This paper investigates whether the use of remotely sensed latent heat fluxes improves the accuracy of spatially-distributed soil moisture predictions by a hydrological model. By using real data we aim to show the potential and limitations in practice. We use (i) satellite data of both ASTER and MODIS for the same two days in the summer of 2006 that, in association with the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), provides us the spatial distribution of daily ETact and (ii) an operational physically based distributed (25 m×25 m) hydrological model of a small catchment (70 km2) in The Netherlands that simulates the water flow in both the unsaturated and saturated zone. Firstly, model outcomes of ETact are compared to the processed satellite data. Secondly, we perform data assimilation that updates the modelled soil moisture. We show that remotely sensed ETact is useful in hydrological modelling for two reasons. Firstly, in the procedure of model calibration: comparison of modeled and remotely sensed ETact together with the outcomes of our data assimilation procedure points out potential model errors (both conceptual and flux-related). Secondly, assimilation of remotely sensed ETact results in a realistic spatial adjustment of soil moisture, except for the area with forest and deep groundwater levels. As both ASTER and MODIS images were available for the same days, this study provides also an excellent opportunity to compare the worth of these two satellite sources. It is shown that, although ASTER provides much better insight in the spatial distribution of ETact due to its higher spatial resolution than MODIS, they appeared in this study just as useful.

scholarly journals Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 3895-3905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nena Griessinger ◽  
Jan Seibert ◽  
Jan Magnusson ◽  
Tobias Jonas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Temperature Index ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Index Approach ◽  
Snow Model ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
Time Invariant ◽  
Snowmelt Time

Abstract. In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is often a major contribution to runoff. Therefore, modeling snow processes is important when concerned with flood or drought forecasting, reservoir operation and inland waterway management. In this study, we address the question of how sensitive hydrological models are to the representation of snow cover dynamics and whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we have used the hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) in the version HBV-light, which has been applied in many hydrological studies and is also in use for operational purposes. While HBV originally follows a temperature-index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt, in this study the HBV model was modified to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model, which is also based on the temperature-index approach but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: (a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, (b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off and (c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid-elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model, which utilized data assimilation. This was especially true for snow-rich years. These findings suggest that with increasing elevation and the correspondingly increased contribution of snowmelt to runoff, the accurate estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt rates has gained importance.

scholarly journals Using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in a meteorological model to improve very short range hydrological forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 3823-3841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Laura Poletti ◽  
Francesco Silvestro ◽  
Silvio Davolio ◽  
Flavio Pignone ◽  
Nicola Rebora
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Distributed Approach ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Small Catchments

Abstract. Forecasting flash floods some hours in advance is still a challenge, especially in environments made up of many small catchments. Hydrometeorological forecasting systems generally allow for predicting the possibility of having very intense rainfall events on quite large areas with good performances, even with 12–24 h of anticipation. However, they are not able to predict the exact rainfall location if we consider portions of a territory of 10 to 1000 km2 as the order of magnitude. The scope of this work is to exploit both observations and modelling sources to improve the discharge prediction in small catchments with a lead time of 2–8 h. The models used to achieve the goal are essentially (i) a probabilistic rainfall nowcasting model able to extrapolate the rainfall evolution from observations, (ii) a non-hydrostatic high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and (iii) a distributed hydrological model able to provide a streamflow prediction in each pixel of the studied domain. These tools are used, together with radar observations, in a synergistic way, exploiting the information of each element in order to complement each other. For this purpose observations are used in a frequently updated data assimilation framework to drive the NWP system, whose output is in turn used to improve the information as input to the nowcasting technique in terms of a predicted rainfall volume trend; finally nowcasting and NWP outputs are blended, generating an ensemble of rainfall scenarios used to feed the hydrological model and produce a prediction in terms of streamflow. The flood prediction system is applied to three major events that occurred in the Liguria region (Italy) first to produce a standard analysis on predefined basin control sections and then using a distributed approach that exploits the capabilities of the employed hydrological model. The results obtained for these three analysed events show that the use of the present approach is promising. Even if not in all the cases, the blending technique clearly enhances the prediction capacity of the hydrological nowcasting chain with respect to the use of input coming only from the nowcasting technique; moreover, a worsening of the performance is observed less, and it is nevertheless ascribable to the critical transition between the nowcasting and the NWP model rainfall field.

scholarly journals Bayesian data assimilation provides rapid decision support for vector-borne diseases

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (108) ◽  
pp. 20150367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris P. Jewell ◽  
Richard G. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Significant Advance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Bayesian Data Assimilation

Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Although host population data are typically available, for novel disease introductions there is a high chance of the pathogen using a vector for which data are unavailable. This presents a barrier to estimating the parameters of dynamical models representing host–vector–pathogen interaction, and hence limits their ability to provide quantitative risk forecasts. The Theileria orientalis (Ikeda) outbreak in New Zealand cattle demonstrates this problem: even though the vector has received extensive laboratory study, a high degree of uncertainty persists over its national demographic distribution. Addressing this, we develop a Bayesian data assimilation approach whereby indirect observations of vector activity inform a seasonal spatio-temporal risk surface within a stochastic epidemic model. We provide quantitative predictions for the future spread of the epidemic, quantifying uncertainty in the model parameters, case infection times and the disease status of undetected infections. Importantly, we demonstrate how our model learns sequentially as the epidemic unfolds and provide evidence for changing epidemic dynamics through time. Our approach therefore provides a significant advance in rapid decision support for novel vector-borne disease outbreaks.

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