scholarly journals Large-Scale Drivers and Seasonal Predictability of Extreme Wind Speeds Over the North Atlantic and Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (20) ◽  
pp. 11,518-11,535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Walz ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Gregor C. Leckebusch
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Wind Speeds

Seasonal Predictability of Wintertime mid-latitude Cyclonic Activity over the North Atlantic and Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvise Aranyossy ◽  
Sebastian Brune ◽  
Lara Hellmich ◽  
Johanna Baehr
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Average Lifespan ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>We analyse the connections between the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the eddy-driven jet stream with the mid-latitude cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic and Europe. We investigate, through the comparison against ECMWF ERA5 and hindcast simulations from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), the potential for enhancement of the seasonal prediction skill of the Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) by accounting for the connections between large-scale climate and the regional cyclonic activity. Our analysis focuses on the wintertime months (December-March) in the 1979-2019 period, with seasonal predictions initialized every November 1st. We calculate EKE from wind speeds at 250 hPa, which we use as a proxy for cyclonic activity. The zonal and meridional wind speeds are bandpass filtered with a cut-off at 3-10 days to fit with the average lifespan of mid-latitude cyclones. </p><p>Preliminary results suggest that in ERA5, major positive anomalies in EKE, both in quantity and duration, are correlated with a northern position of the jet stream and a positive phase of the NAO. Apparently, a deepened Icelandic low-pressure system offers favourable conditions for mid-latitude cyclones in terms of growth and average lifespan. In contrast, negative anomalies in EKE over the North Atlantic and Central Europe are associated with a more equatorward jet stream, these are also linked to a negative phase of the NAO.  Thus, in ERA5, the eddy-driven jet stream and the NAO play a significant role in the spatial and temporal distribution of wintertime mid-latitude cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic and Europe. We extend this connection to the MPI-ESM hindcast simulations and present an analysis of their predictive skill of EKE for wintertime months.</p>

scholarly journals The Global Wind Resource Observed by Scatterometer

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 2920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian R. Young ◽  
Ebru Kirezci ◽  
Agustinus Ribal
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Resource

A 27-year-long calibrated multi-mission scatterometer data set is used to determine the global basin-scale and near-coastal wind resource. In addition to mean and percentile values, the analysis also determines the global values of both 50- and 100-year return period wind speeds. The analysis clearly shows the seasonal variability of wind speeds and the differing response of the two hemispheres. The maximum wind speeds in each hemisphere are comparable but there is a much larger seasonal cycle in the northern hemisphere. As a result, the southern hemisphere has a more consistent year-round wind climate. Hence, coastal regions of southern Africa, southern Australia, New Zealand and southern South America appear particularly suited to coastal and offshore wind energy projects. The extreme value analysis shows that the highest extreme wind speeds occur in the North Atlantic Ocean with extreme wind regions concentrated along the western boundaries of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans and the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. The signature of tropical cyclones is clearly observed in each of the well-known tropical cyclone basins.

scholarly journals Springtime connections between the large-scale sea-level pressure field and gust wind speed over Iberia and the Balearics

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 191-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. L. Martín ◽  
F. Valero ◽  
A. Pascual ◽  
A. Morata ◽  
M. Y. Luna
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Pressure Field ◽  
Wind Gust ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Wind Gusts ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. This paper investigates, by means of Singular Value Decomposition analysis, the springtime relationships between the mean sea-level pressure field over the North Atlantic and the regional wind gusts over the Iberian Peninsula, identifying the main atmospheric circulation patterns linked to gust wind speed anomaly configurations. The statistical significance of the obtained modes is investigated by means of Monte Carlo approach. The analysis highlighted that the covariability is dominated by two main large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The first mode relates to Iberian gust wind speeds to the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND), linking the large-scale pattern to above-normal wind gusts. The second covariability mode, associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, correlates with maximum wind speeds over Iberia. An enhanced spring NAO pattern is related to positive (negative) wind gust correlations over northern (southern) Iberia. To find true relationships between large-scale atmospheric field and the gust wind speeds, composite maps were built up to give an average atmospheric circulation associated with coherent wind gust variability over Iberia.

scholarly journals Persistent regimes and extreme events of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 (1991) ◽  
pp. 20110471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian L. E. Franzke
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Extreme Wind Speeds

Society is increasingly impacted by natural hazards which cause significant damage in economic and human terms. Many of these natural hazards are weather and climate related. Here, we show that North Atlantic atmospheric circulation regimes affect the propensity of extreme wind speeds in Europe. We also show evidence that extreme wind speeds are long-range dependent, follow a generalized Pareto distribution and are serially clustered. Serial clustering means that storms come in bunches and, hence, do not occur independently. We discuss the use of waiting time distributions for extreme event recurrence estimation in serially dependent time series.

scholarly journals Summer Covariability of Surface Climate for Renewable Energy across the Contiguous United States: Role of the North Atlantic Subtropical High

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (12) ◽  
pp. 2749-2768 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Doering ◽  
Scott Steinschneider
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
North Atlantic Subtropical High ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractThis study examines the joint spatiotemporal variability of summertime climate linked to renewable energy sources (precipitation and streamflow, wind speeds, and insolation) and energy demand drivers (temperature, relative humidity, and a heat index) across the contiguous United States (CONUS) between 1948 and 2015. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify the primary modes of joint variability between wind speeds and precipitation and related patterns of the other hydrometeorological variables. The first two modes exhibit a pan-U.S. dipole with lobes in the eastern and central CONUS. Composite analysis shows that these modes are directly related to the displacement of the western ridge of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), suggesting that a single, large-scale feature of atmospheric circulation drives much of the large-scale climate covariability related to summertime renewable energy supply and demand across the CONUS. The impacts of this climate feature on the U.S. energy system are shown more directly by examining changes in surface climate variables at existing and potential sites of renewable energy infrastructure and locations of high energy demand. Also, different phases of the NASH are related to concurrent and lagged modes of oceanic and atmospheric climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, with results suggesting that springtime climate over both oceans may provide some potential to predict summer variability in the NASH and its associated surface climate. The implications of these findings for the impacts of climate variability and change on integrated renewable energy systems over the CONUS are discussed.

scholarly journals Seasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Zonal Mean Fields Associated with Stratospheric Influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2

SOLA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (0) ◽  
pp. 209-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoaki Saito ◽  
Shuhei Maeda ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa ◽  
Yuhei Takaya ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
The North ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

scholarly journals Climate impacts on multidecadal <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 15223-15244
Author(s):  
M. L. Breeden ◽  
G. A. McKinley
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle using a regional model forced with realistic climate and pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948–2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Warming with the positive AMO increases subpolar gyre pCO2, but there is also a significant reduction of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due primarily to reduced vertical mixing. The net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net impacts of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.

scholarly journals Lagrangian formation pathways of moist anomalies in the trade-wind region during the dry season: two case studies from EUREC<sup>4</sup>A

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonie Villiger ◽  
Heini Wernli ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Martin Hagen ◽  
Franziska Aemisegger
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
The North ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Shallow clouds in the trade-wind region over the North Atlantic contribute substantially to the global radiative budget. In the vicinity of the Caribbean island Barbados, they appear in different mesoscale organisation patterns with distinct net cloud radiative effects (CRE). Cloud formation processes in this region are typically controlled by the prevailing large-scale subsidence. However, occasionally weather systems from remote origin cause significant disturbances. This study investigates the complex cloud-circulation interactions during the field campaign EUREC4A (Elucidate the Couplings Between Clouds, Convection and Circulation) from 16 January to 20 February 2020, using a combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. Based on observations and ERA5 reanalyses, we identify the relevant processes and characterise the formation pathways of two moist anomalies above the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO), one in the lower (~1000–650 hPa) and one in the middle troposphere (~650–300 hPa). These moist anomalies are associated with strongly negative CRE values and with contrasting long-range transport processes from the extratropics and the tropics, respectively. The low-level moist anomaly is characterised by an unusually thick cloud layer, high precipitation totals and a strongly negative CRE. Its formation is connected to an “extratropical dry intrusion” (EDI) that interacts with a trailing cold front. A quasi-climatological (2010–2020) analysis reveals that EDIs lead to different conditions at the BCO depending on how they interact with the associated cold front. Based on this climatology, we discuss the relevance of the strong large-scale forcing by EDIs for the low-cloud patterns near the BCO and the related CRE. The second case study about the mid-tropospheric moist anomaly is associated with an extended and persistent mixed-phase shelf cloud and the lowest daily CRE value observed during the campaign. Its formation is linked to “tropical mid-level detrainment” (TMD), which refers to detrainment from tropical deep convection near the melting layer. The quasi-climatological analysis shows that TMDs consistently lead to mid-tropospheric moist anomalies over the BCO and that the detrainment height controls the magnitude of the anomaly. However, no systematic relationship was found between the amplitude of this mid-tropospheric moist anomaly and the CRE at the BCO. Overall, this study reveals the important impact of the long-range transport, driven by dynamical processes either in the extratropics or the tropics, on the variability of the vertical structure of moisture and clouds, and on the resulting CRE in the North Atlantic winter trades.

Near-surface wind speeds in ERA5: Climatology, decadal variability and long-term trends

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terhi K. Laurila ◽  
Victoria A. Sinclair ◽  
Hilppa Gregow
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

&lt;p&gt;The knowledge of long-term climate and variability of near-surface wind speeds is essential and widely used among meteorologists, climate scientists and in industries such as wind energy and forestry. The new high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) will likely be used as a reference in future climate projections and in many wind-related applications. Hence, it is important to know what is the mean climate and variability of wind speeds in ERA5.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We present the monthly 10-m wind speed climate and decadal variability in the North Atlantic and Europe during the 40-year period (1979-2018) based on ERA5. In addition, we examine temporal time series and possible trends in three locations: the central North Atlantic, Finland and Iberian Peninsula. Moreover, we investigate what are the physical reasons for the decadal changes in 10-m wind speeds.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The 40-year mean and the 98th percentile wind speeds show a distinct contrast between land and sea with the strongest winds over the ocean and a seasonal variation with the strongest winds during winter time. The winds have the highest values and variabilities associated with storm tracks and local wind phenomena such as the mistral. To investigate the extremeness of the winds, we defined an extreme find factor (EWF) which is the ratio between the 98th percentile and mean wind speeds. The EWF is higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe during all months. Mostly no statistically significant linear trends of 10-m wind speeds were found in the 40-year period in the three locations and the annual and decadal variability was large.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The windiest decade in northern Europe was the 1990s and in southern Europe the 1980s and 2010s. The decadal changes in 10-m wind speeds were largely explained by the position of the jet stream and storm tracks and the strength of the north-south pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. In addition, we investigated the correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in the three locations. The NAO has a positive correlation in the central North Atlantic and Finland and a negative correlation in Iberian Peninsula. The AMO correlates moderately with the winds in the central North Atlantic but no correlation was found in Finland or the Iberian Peninsula. Overall, our study highlights that rather than just using long-term linear trends in wind speeds it is more informative to consider inter-annual or decadal variability.&lt;/p&gt;

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