scholarly journals The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data

Space Weather ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Kodikara ◽  
Kefei Zhang ◽  
N. M. Pedatella ◽  
Claudia Borries
Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1526
Author(s):  
Chen-Ke-Min Teng ◽  
Sheng-Yang Gu ◽  
Yusong Qin ◽  
Xiankang Dou

In this study, a global atmospheric model, Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X), and the residual circulation principle were used to study the global atmospheric circulation from the lower to upper atmosphere (~500 km) from 2002 to 2019. Our analysis shows that the atmospheric circulation is clearly influenced by solar activity, especially in the upper atmosphere, which is mainly characterized by an enhanced atmospheric circulation in years with high solar activity. The atmospheric circulation in the upper atmosphere also exhibits an ~11 year period, and its variation is highly correlated with the temporal variation in the F10.7 solar index during the same time series, with a maximum correlation coefficient of up to more than 0.9. In the middle and lower atmosphere, the impact of solar activity on the atmospheric circulation is not as obvious as in the upper atmosphere due to some atmospheric activities such as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), volcanic forcing, and so on. By comparing the atmospheric circulation in different latitudinal regions between years with high and low solar activity, we found the atmospheric circulation in mid- and high-latitude regions is more affected by solar activity than in low-latitude and equatorial regions. In addition, clear seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation was detected in the global atmosphere, excluding the regions near 10−4 hPa and the lower atmosphere, which is mainly characterized by a flow from the summer hemisphere to the winter hemisphere. In the middle and low atmosphere, the atmospheric circulation shows a quasi-biennial oscillatory variation in the low-latitude and equatorial regions. This work provides a referable study of global atmospheric circulation and demonstrates the impacts of solar activity on global atmospheric circulation.


Author(s):  
Eugene Onori

Introduction: The ionosphere owes its origin primarily to ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. The ionosphere is an essential part of the Earth’s upper atmosphere. It is ionized by solar radiation and influences transionospheric radio wave propagation. Maximum electron density of the F2- layer (NmF2) is an important parameter for studying the ionosphere. The ionospheric F2-region maximum electron density (NmF2) depends strongly on solar activity, it also suffers temporal and spatial variations. Aim: The aim of this paper is to investigate the response of NmF2 to solar activity during high solar activity (HSA), moderate solar activity (MSA) and low solar activity (LSA) years using correlation analysis. Materials and Methods: The data used in this work are the hourly NmF2 values derived from foF2 data observed at Jicamarca (Lat.11.9 oS, Long.76.8 oW) and Puerto Rico (Lat.18.5 oN, Long.67.2 oW) during high solar activity HSA (2002), moderate solar activity MSA (2011) and low solar activity LSA (2006) years. The NmF2 data were evaluated using the relation in equation 1 NmF2 = 1.24 x 1010 (foF2)2 (1) Where NmF2 is in el/m3 and foF2 is in MHz. Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) was used to further analyse the NmF2 data. Results: Our results revealed two unequal NmF2 peaks. The NmF2 peaks values at Jicamarca (60 - 240; 63– 204) x 1010 el/m3 are observed to be higher in values than those at Puerto Rico (63 – 187; 57 – 164) x 1010 el/m3. The highest NmF2 peak values of 240 and 187x 1010 el/m3 occurred during March equinox at 09:00 and 14:00 hours at Jicamarca and Puerto Rico respectively during HSA year. Conclusion: Correlation analysis for the three epochs of solar activity revealed that NmF2 showed positive correlation with sunspot number with highest correlation values of 0.904 and 0.976 at Jicamarca and Puerto Rico stations respectively during MSA year.


Author(s):  
S. I. Boldyrev ◽  
I. A. Egorov ◽  
I. A. Zhitnik ◽  
G. S. Ivanov–Kholodny ◽  
S. P. Ignat’yev ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Kodikara ◽  
Kefei Zhang ◽  
Nicholas M. Pedatella ◽  
Claudia Borries

<p>We present a comprehensive comparison of the impact of solar activity on forecasting the ionosphere and thermosphere. Here we investigate the response of physics-based TIE-GCM (thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model) in a data assimilation scheme through assimilating radio occultation (RO)-derived electron density (Ne) using an ensemble Kalman filter (KF). Constellation observations of Ne profiles offer opportunities to assess the accuracy of the model forecasted state on a global scale. In this study, we emphasise the importance of understanding how the assimilation results vary with solar activity, which is one of the primary drivers of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics.</p><p>We validate the assimilation results with independent RO-derived GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission) Ne data. The main result is that the forecast Ne agree best with data during the solar minimum compared to solar maximum. The results also show that the assimilation scheme significantly adjusts both the nowcast and forecast states during the two solar activity periods. The results show that TIE-GCM significantly underestimate Ne in low altitudes below 250 km and the assimilation of Ne is not as effective in these lower altitudes compared to higher altitudes. The results demonstrate that assimilation of Ne significantly impacts the neutral mass density estimates via the KF state vector. This impact is larger during solar maximum than solar minimum relative to a control run. The results also demonstrate that the impact of assimilation of Ne on neutral mass density state persists through to forecast state better during solar minimum compared to solar maximum. The results are useful to explain the inherent model bias, to understand the limitations of the data, and to demonstrate the capability of the assimilation technique.</p>


1999 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 1465-1473 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.L Bruinsma ◽  
P Exertier ◽  
R Biancale

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1559
Author(s):  
Fabricio S. Prol ◽  
M. Mainul Hoque

A 3D-model approach has been developed to describe the electron density of the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements onboard low Earth orbit satellites. Electron density profiles derived from ionospheric Radio Occultation (RO) data are extrapolated to the upper ionosphere and plasmasphere based on a linear Vary-Chap function and Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements. A final update is then obtained by applying tomographic algorithms to the slant TEC measurements. Since the background specification is created with RO data, the proposed approach does not require using any external ionospheric/plasmaspheric model to adapt to the most recent data distributions. We assessed the model accuracy in 2013 and 2018 using independent TEC data, in situ electron density measurements, and ionosondes. A systematic better specification was obtained in comparison to NeQuick, with improvements around 15% in terms of electron density at 800 km, 26% at the top-most region (above 10,000 km) and 26% to 55% in terms of TEC, depending on the solar activity level. Our investigation shows that the developed model follows a known variation of electron density with respect to geographic/geomagnetic latitude, altitude, solar activity level, season, and local time, revealing the approach as a practical and useful tool for describing topside ionosphere and plasmasphere using satellite-based GNSS data.


2018 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jhonatha R. dos Santos ◽  
Jonas Jakutis Neto ◽  
N. Rodrigues ◽  
M.G. Destro ◽  
José W. Neri ◽  
...  

In this work, we suggest a methodology to determine the impact parameter for neutral dysprosium emission lines from the characterization of the plasma generated by laser ablation in a sealed chamber filled with argon. The procedure is a combination of known consistent spectroscopic methods for plasma temperature determination, electron density, and species concentration. With an electron density of 3.1 × 1018 cm–3 and temperature close to 104 K, we estimated the impact electron parameter for nine spectral lines of the neutral dysprosium atom. The gaps in the impact parameter data in the literature, mainly for heavy elements, stress the importance of the proposed method.


Author(s):  
D. C. Price ◽  
C. Flynn ◽  
A. Deller

Abstract Galactic electron density distribution models are crucial tools for estimating the impact of the ionised interstellar medium on the impulsive signals from radio pulsars and fast radio bursts. The two prevailing Galactic electron density models (GEDMs) are YMW16 (Yao et al. 2017, ApJ, 835, 29) and NE2001 (Cordes & Lazio 2002, arXiv e-prints, pp astro–ph/0207156). Here, we introduce a software package PyGEDM which provides a unified application programming interface for these models and the YT20 (Yamasaki & Totani 2020, ApJ, 888, 105) model of the Galactic halo. We use PyGEDM to compute all-sky maps of Galactic dispersion measure (DM) for YMW16 and NE2001 and compare the large-scale differences between the two. In general, YMW16 predicts higher DM values towards the Galactic anticentre. YMW16 predicts higher DMs at low Galactic latitudes, but NE2001 predicts higher DMs in most other directions. We identify lines of sight for which the models are most discrepant, using pulsars with independent distance measurements. YMW16 performs better on average than NE2001, but both models show significant outliers. We suggest that future campaigns to determine pulsar distances should focus on targets where the models show large discrepancies, so future models can use those measurements to better estimate distances along those line of sight. We also suggest that the Galactic halo should be considered as a component in future GEDMs, to avoid overestimating the Galactic DM contribution for extragalactic sources such as FRBs.


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