Pseudo Global Warming Sensitivity Experiments of Subtropical Cyclone Anita (2010) under RCP 8.5 Scenario

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

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Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 °C less global warming

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-019-05014-6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 54 (1-2) ◽

pp. 543-560 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Dongdong Peng ◽

Tianjun Zhou ◽

Lixia Zhang ◽

Wenxia Zhang ◽

Xiaolong Chen

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Central Asia ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Correction Method ◽

Maximum Precipitation ◽

Extreme Climate Events ◽

Extreme Climate ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Climate Events ◽

The Impact

Abstract Arid Central Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Information on potential future changes in extreme climate events in Central Asia is limited. In this study, the performances of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climatological extremes in Central Asia are first evaluated, and a bias correction method is employed to constrain future projections. The responses of extreme climate events over Central Asia to future warming and, in particular, the impact of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios are then assessed based on the observationally constrained projections. During the twenty-first century, coldest night (TNn), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx), warmest day (TXx), 1-day maximum precipitation (RX1 day), 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5 day), and precipitation intensity (SDII) in Central Asia would robustly increase at best estimated rates of 1.93 °C, 1.71 °C, 1.18 °C, 1.25 °C, 6.30%, 5.71%, and 4.99% per degree of global warming, respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Compared with the 2 °C warming scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could reduce the intensification (relative to 1986–2005) of TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, RX1 day, RX5 day, and SDII by 33%, 24%, 32%, 29%, 39%, 42%, and 53% from the best estimates under RCP8.5, respectively. The avoided intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx (RX1 day and SDII) would be larger (smaller) under RCP4.5. This suggests that a low warming target is necessary for avoiding the dangerous risk of extremes in this arid region.

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Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

Earth System Dynamics Discussions ◽

10.5194/esdd-4-1-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 1-24 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

A. Menon ◽

A. Levermann ◽

J. Schewe ◽

J. Lehmann ◽

K. Frieler

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Summer Monsoon ◽

Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Indian Monsoon ◽

Indian Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Consistent Increase

Abstract. The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.

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Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-4-287-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 287-300 ◽

Cited By ~ 107

Author(s):

A. Menon ◽

A. Levermann ◽

J. Schewe ◽

J. Lehmann ◽

K. Frieler

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Summer Monsoon ◽

Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Indian Monsoon ◽

Indian Monsoon Rainfall ◽

Historic Period ◽

Wide Range ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Consistent Increase

Abstract. The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.

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Ocean acidification may be increasing the intensity of lightning over the oceans

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-79066-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mustafa Asfur ◽

Jacob Silverman ◽

Colin Price

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Ocean Acidification ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

First Century ◽

Carbon Uptake ◽

Flash Intensity ◽

Worst Case ◽

Biogenic Carbon ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Uptake And Release

AbstractThe anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 is not only considered to drive global warming, but also ocean acidification. Previous studies have shown that acidification will affect many aspects of biogenic carbon uptake and release in the surface water of the oceans. In this report we present a potential novel impact of acidification on the flash intensity of lightning discharged into the oceans. Our experimental results show that a decrease in ocean pH corresponding to the predicted increase in atmospheric CO2 according to the IPCC RCP 8.5 worst case emission scenario, may increase the intensity of lightning discharged into seawater by approximately 30 ± 7% by the end of the twenty-first century relative to 2000.

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Impact of global warming (1.5ºC) on the productivity of selected C3 and C4 crops across Tamil Nadu

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v22i1.115 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 7-17

Author(s):

R. GOWTHAM ◽

K. BHUVANESHWARI ◽

A. SENTHIL ◽

M. DHASARATHAN ◽

AROMAR REVI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Tamil Nadu ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Crop Phenology ◽

Maize Productivity ◽

C4 Pathway ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Negative Impacts

Over the last century, mean annual temperatures increased by ~1°C. UNFCCC has proposed to limit warming below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. A study was conducted on rice (C3 pathway) and maize (C4 pathway) over Tamil Nadu using DSSAT to understand the climate change impacts with projected temperature increase of 1.5°C.The future climate under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 indicated 1.5°Cincrease in temperature to happen by 2053 and 2035, respectively over Tamil Nadu.Annual rainfall deviations in RCP4.5 showed drier than current condition and RCP8.5 projected wetter SWM and drier NEM (90 % of current rainfall).Impact of 1.5°C warming on crop phenology indicated 8 days reduction in duration for rice and maize. The W UE of rice would decrease by 17 per cent at current CO2 whereas, enrichment (430 ppm) would reduce by12 per cent and rice yield is reduced by 21 per cent with 360 ppm CO2 and 430 ppm reducedby 17 per cent. There is no considerable varaition (- 5 to 1 %) in maize productivity with 1.5 ºC warming. The above results indicated that 1.5 ºC warming has more negative impacts on plants with C3 compared to C4 pathway

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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