scholarly journals Long-Term Forecasting of Death in the Neonatal ICU using Heart Rate Characteristics Monitoring and Clinical Data

2011 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 37-37
Author(s):  
J R Moorman ◽  
W A Carlo ◽  
J Kattwinkel ◽  
R L Schelonka ◽  
P J Porcelli ◽  
...  
1993 ◽  
Vol 265 (5) ◽  
pp. H1603-H1613 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. De Paola ◽  
H. X. Wang ◽  
W. I. Norwood

Distinctive patterns of premature heart beats are frequently observed in clinical data, yet transitions from one pattern to another often appear to occur unpredictably. In this study we investigate the origins of this apparent lack of long-term order by processing the time intervals between successive R wave features of the electrocardiogram to obtain a symbolic description of all characteristic patterns of premature beats observed in a clinical data set. These characteristic patterns are found to be 1) associated with fixed ranges of heart rate over periods of many hours and 2) organized into an interwoven fractal structure that corresponds to the sequence of mode-locked states predicted by a nonlinear mathematical model. The apparent randomness of transitions from one pattern to another results from the normal fluctuations in heart rate which can sample many such patterns on a minute-by-minute basis.


2013 ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
G. Kuranov

The role of the prominent Soviet economist, academician A. Anchishkin (1933—1987), whose 80th birth anniversary we celebrate this year, in the development of ideas and formation of economic forecasting in the country at the time when the directive planning acted as a leading tool of economic management is explored in the article. Besides, Anchishkin’s special role is noted in developing a comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress, an information basis for working out long-term forecasts of the country’s development, moreover, his contribution to the creation of long-term forecasting methodology and improvement of the statistical basis for economic analysis and economic planning. The authors show that social and economic forecasting in the period after 1991, which has undertaken a number of functions of economic planning, has largely relied on further development of Anchishkin’s ideas, at the same time responding to new challenges for the Russian economy development during its entry into the world economic system.


2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.


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