scholarly journals Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yuan ◽  
Linying Wang ◽  
Peili Wu ◽  
Peng Ji ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Exposure Risk ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Optimal Fingerprinting

Abstract Flash droughts refer to a type of droughts that have rapid intensification without sufficient early warning. To date, how will the flash drought risk change in a warming future climate remains unknown due to a diversity of flash drought definition, unclear role of anthropogenic fingerprints, and uncertain socioeconomic development. Here we propose a new method for explicitly characterizing flash drought events, and find that the exposure risk over China will increase by about 23% ± 11% during the middle of this century under a socioeconomic scenario with medium challenge. Optimal fingerprinting shows that anthropogenic climate change induced by the increased greenhouse gas concentrations accounts for 77% ± 26% of the upward trend of flash drought frequency, and population increase is also an important factor for enhancing the exposure risk of flash drought over southernmost humid regions. Our results suggest that the traditional drought-prone regions would expand given the human-induced intensification of flash drought risk.

scholarly journals Socioeconomics drive population change in the world's largest carnivores

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frederick Johnson ◽  
Nick J.B. Isaac ◽  
Agustin Paviolo ◽  
Manuela Gonzalez-Saurez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Population Changes ◽  
Wildlife Population ◽  
Development Goals

Land-use and climate change have been linked to wildlife population declines, but the role of socioeconomic factors in driving declines, and promoting population recoveries, remains relatively unexplored despite its likely importance. Here, we evaluate a comprehensive array of potential drivers of population changes observed in some of the world's most charismatic species - large mammalian carnivores. Our results reveal a strong role of human socioeconomic development, which we find has a greater impact on population change than habitat loss and climate change. Increases in socioeconomic development are linked to sharp population declines but, importantly, once development is high, carnivore populations have the potential to recover. These links between human development and wildlife population health highlight the challenges ahead to achieve the different UN Sustainable development goals.

scholarly journals Potential impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection on drought risk managements over major river basins in Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babatunde J. Abiodun ◽  
Romaric C. Odoulami ◽  
Windmanagda Sawadogo ◽  
Olumuyiwa A. Oloniyo ◽  
Abayomi A. Abatan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Major River ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractMost socio-economic activities in Africa depend on the continent’s river basins, but effectively managing drought risks over the basins in response to climate change remains a big challenge. While studies have shown that the stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) intervention could mitigate temperature-related climate change impacts over Africa, there is a dearth of information on how the SAI intervention could influence drought characteristics and drought risk managements over the river basins. The present study thus examines the potential impacts of climate change and the SAI intervention on droughts and drought management over the major river basins in Africa. Multi-ensemble climate simulation datasets from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) Project were analysed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to characterize the upper and lower limits of future drought severity, respectively, over the basins. The SPEI is a function of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, whereas the SPI is only a function of rainfall, so the difference between the two indices is influenced by atmospheric evaporative demand. The results of the study show that, while the SAI intervention, as simulated in GLENS, may offset the impacts of climate change on temperature and atmospheric evaporative demand, the level of SAI that compensates for temperature change would overcompensate for the impacts on precipitation and therefore impose a climate water balance deficit in the tropics. SAI would narrow the gaps between SPEI and SPI projections over the basins by reducing SPEI drought frequency through reduced temperature and atmospheric evaporative demand while increasing SPI drought frequency through reduced rainfall. The narrowing of this gap lowers the level of uncertainty regarding future changes in drought frequency, but nonetheless has implications for future drought management in the basins, because while SAI lowers the upper limit of the future drought stress, it also raises the lower limit of the drought stress.

scholarly journals The Future of Water Management in Central Asia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2241
Author(s):  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Kamshat Tussupova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Potential Conflict

Central Asia is an increasingly important strategic geopolitical region. During the latest decades, the region has often been identified as close to potential conflict regarding water usage. This includes the sharing of water from the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya in the Aral Sea Basin. The Aral Sea disaster has exposed a complex picture of water needs and potential political conflict. Rapid population increase together with climate change impacts are likely to further aggravate the short- and long-term future precarious situation for water management in the region. This Special Issue focuses on present and future water management issues in Central Asia in view of future climate changes and how these will affect socioeconomic development. Central Asia is, in general, water rich; however, exercising efficient and fair water management will be important in view of future population increase and climate change. At the same time, water and natural resource development is a cornerstone in all the Central Asian republics. Especially, water resources are, to a great extent, shared between all five republics. A common ground for water-sharing is, therefore, of utmost importance.

Drought and heat-stress mortality risks: Assessing the role of climate change, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and population growth

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmadalipour ◽  
Hamid Moradkhani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Drought And Heat Stress

<p>Drought risk refers to the potential losses imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. Here, we assess drought risk at a national level across Africa by considering climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Drought vulnerability is quantified using a rigorous multi-dimensional framework based on 28 factors from six different sectors of economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Various analyses are conducted to assess the reliability and accuracy of the proposed drought vulnerability index (DVI). A multi-model and multi-scenario framework is employed to quantify drought hazard using a multitude of regional climate models. Drought risk is then assessed for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 future vulnerability scenarios in each country during 2010-2100. Drought risk ratio is calculated for each scenario, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of unprecedented vulnerability and population rise in the region. Results indicate that controlling the population growth is imperative for mitigating drought risk since it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought. Meanwhile, climate change will considerably exacerbate drought and heat-stress hazards. Our findings show that global warming will escalate heat-stress mortality risk across Central Africa to unprecedented levels. It is revealed that unfortunately, the poorest countries (that have least contribution to climate change) are expected to be most impacted, and they will experience markedly higher risk ratios compared to the wealthier nations.</p>

Public and Private Net Savings in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Tests for the Period 1972-88 (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1992 ◽  
Vol 31 (4I) ◽  
pp. 431-447
Author(s):  
Peter A. Cornelisse ◽  
Elma Van De Mortel
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Critical Size ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Critical Dimensions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Financial Issues

The severe shocks that rocked the world economy in the 1970s and the ensuing efforts to adjust and to renew economic growth have had a profound effect on the economic literature. Especially the external and public debt problems which reached critical dimensions in many countries attracted much attention. Thus, in the field of macroeconomics financial issues have gained more prominence over the last two decades. Studies relating to the fiscal deficit have been particularly numerous. The critical size of national public debts, the contribution of the public debt to external debt, the reduced confidence in the state as the guide in socioeconomic development and the role of fiscal policy in adjustment processes are among the main reasons for this increased interest.

The Role of Late-Night Infotainment Comedy in Communicating Climate Change Consensus

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward John Roy Clarke ◽  
Anna Klas ◽  
Joshua Stevenson ◽  
Emily Jane Kothe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Mitigation Policy ◽  
Behavioural Intentions ◽  
Late Night ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Adaptation Policies ◽  
Diverse Audience

Climate change is a politically-polarised issue, with conservatives less likely than liberals to perceive it as human-caused and consequential. Furthermore, they are less likely to support mitigation and adaptation policies needed to reduce its impacts. This study aimed to examine whether John Oliver’s “A Mathematically Representative Climate Change Debate” clip on his program Last Week Tonight polarised or depolarised a politically-diverse audience on climate policy support and behavioural intentions. One hundred and fifty-nine participants, recruited via Amazon MTurk (94 female, 64 male, one gender unspecified, Mage = 51.07, SDage = 16.35), were presented with either John Oliver’s climate change consensus clip, or a humorous video unrelated to climate change. Although the climate change consensus clip did not reduce polarisation (or increase it) relative to a control on mitigation policy support, it resulted in hyperpolarisation on support for adaptation policies and increased climate action intentions among liberals but not conservatives.

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