scholarly journals ENSO modulates wildfire activity in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyan Fang ◽  
Qichao Yao ◽  
Zhengtang Guo ◽  
Ben Zheng ◽  
Jianhua Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Plant Tissues ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Subtropical China ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Temperature Ranges ◽  
Low Precipitation

AbstractChina is a key region for understanding fire activity and the drivers of its variability under strict fire suppression policies. Here, we present a detailed fire occurrence dataset for China, the Wildfire Atlas of China (WFAC; 2005–2018), based on continuous monitoring from multiple satellites and calibrated against field observations. We find that wildfires across China mostly occur in the winter season from January to April and those fire occurrences generally show a decreasing trend after reaching a peak in 2007. Most wildfires (84%) occur in subtropical China, with two distinct clusters in its southwestern and southeastern parts. In southeastern China, wildfires are mainly promoted by low precipitation and high diurnal temperature ranges, the combination of which dries out plant tissue and fuel. In southwestern China, wildfires are mainly promoted by warm conditions that enhance evaporation from litter and dormant plant tissues. We further find a fire occurrence dipole between southwestern and southeastern China that is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

scholarly journals Stratospheric Influences on the MJO-Induced Rossby Wave Train: Effects on Intraseasonal Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lon L. Hood ◽  
Malori A. Redman ◽  
Wes L. Johnson ◽  
Thomas J. Galarneau
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
Rossby Wave Train

AbstractThe tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites a northward propagating Rossby wave train that largely determines the extratropical surface weather consequences of the MJO. Previous work has demonstrated a significant influence of the tropospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the characteristics of this wave train. Here, composite analyses of ERA-Interim sea level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during the extended northern winter season are performed to investigate the additional role of stratospheric forcings [the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-yr solar cycle] in modifying the wave train and its consequences. MJO phase composites of 20–100-day filtered data for the two QBO phases show that, similar to the cool phase of ENSO, the easterly phase of the QBO (QBOE) produces a stronger wave train and associated modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. In particular, during MJO phases 5–7, positive SLP and negative SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector are enhanced during QBOE relative to the westerly phase of the QBO (QBOW). The opposite occurs during the earliest MJO phases. SAT anomalies over eastern North America are also more strongly modulated during QBOE. Although less certain because of the short data record, there is some evidence that the minimum phase of the solar cycle (SMIN) produces a similar increased modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. The strongest modulations of SLP and SAT anomalies are produced when two or more of the forcings are superposed (e.g., QBOE/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, etc.).

scholarly journals A Two-Tier Statistical Forecast Method for Agricultural and Resource Management Simulations

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1573-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Mauget ◽  
Jonghan Ko
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Ohio River Valley ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Phase Systems ◽  
Simple Phase

Abstract Simple phase schemes to predict seasonal climate based on leading ENSO indicators can be used to estimate the value of forecast information in agriculture and watershed management, but may be limited in predictive skill. Here, a simple two-tier statistical method is used to hindcast seasonal precipitation over the continental United States, and the resulting skill is compared with that of ENSO phase systems based on Niño-3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and Southern Oscillation index (SOI) persistence. The two-tier approach first predicts Niño-3 winter season SSTA, and then converts those predictions to categorical precipitation hindcasts via a simple phase translation process. The hindcasting problem used to make these comparisons is relevant to winter wheat production over the central United States. Thus, given the state of seasonal SOI and Niño-3 indicators defined before August, the goal is to predict the tercile category of the following November–March precipitation. Generally, it was found that the methods based on either predicted or persisted winter Niño-3 conditions were skillful over areas where ENSO affects U.S. winter precipitation—that is, the Southeast and the Gulf Coast, Texas, the southern and central plains, the Southwest, Northwest, and the Ohio River valley—and that the two-tier approach based on predicted Niño-3 conditions was more likely to provide the best skill. Skill based on SOI persistence was generally lower over many of those regions and was insignificant over broad parts of the central and southwest United States, but did lead the other methods over the Ohio River valley and the northwest. A more restrictive test of leading hindcast skill showed that the skill advantages of the two-tier approach over the central and western United States were not substantial, and mainly highlighted SOI persistence’s lack of skill over the central United States and leading skill over the Ohio River valley. However, two-tier hindcasts based on neural-network-predicted Niño-3 SSTA were clearly more skillful than both ENSO phase methods over areas of the Southeast. It is suggested that the relative skill advantage of the two-tier approach may be due in part to the use of arbitrary thresholds in ENSO phase systems.

scholarly journals Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Ivan Briones-Herrera ◽  
Daniel José Vega-Nieva ◽  
Norma Angélica Monjarás-Vega ◽  
Favian Flores-Medina ◽  
Pablito Marcelo Lopez-Serrano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Carbon Density ◽  
Aboveground Carbon ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Aboveground Carbon Density

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence is key for improved forest fires management, particularly under global change scenarios. Very few studies have attempted to relate satellite-based aboveground biomass maps of moderate spatial resolution to spatial fire occurrence under a variety of climatic and vegetation conditions. This study focuses on modeling and mapping fire occurrence based on fire suppression data from 2005–2015 from aboveground biomass—expressed as aboveground carbon density (AGCD)—for the main ecoregions in Mexico. Our results showed that at each ecoregion, unimodal or humped relationships were found between AGCD and fire occurrence, which might be explained by varying constraints of fuel and climate limitation to fire activity. Weibull equations successfully fitted the fire occurrence distributions from AGCD, with the lowest fit for the desert shrub-dominated north region that had the lowest number of observed fires. The models for predicting fire occurrence from AGCD were significantly different by region, with the exception of the temperate forest in the northwest and northeast regions that could be modeled with a single Weibull model. Our results suggest that AGCD could be used to estimate spatial fire occurrence maps; those estimates could be integrated into operational GIS tools for assistance in fire danger mapping and fire and fuel management decision-making. Further investigation of anthropogenic drivers of fire occurrence and fuel characteristics should be considered for improving the operational spatial planning of fire management. The modeling strategy presented here could be replicated in other countries or regions, based on remote-sensed measurements of aboveground biomass and fire activity or fire suppression records.

The Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity along the Gulf Coast. Part I: Lightning Climatology

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (7) ◽  
pp. 2523-2542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark LaJoie ◽  
Arlene Laing
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Lightning Flash

Abstract Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes from the National Lightning Detection Network are analyzed to determine if the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle influences lighting activity along the Gulf Coast region. First, an updated climatology of lightning was developed for the region. Flash density maps are constructed from an 8-yr dataset (1995–2002) and compared with past lightning climatologies. Second, lightning variability is compared with the phases of ENSO. Winter lightning distributions are compared with one published study of ENSO and lightning days in the Southeast. Flash density patterns are, overall, consistent with past U.S. lightning climatology. However, the peak flash density for the annual mean was less than observed in previous climatologies, which could be due to the disproportionately large percentage of cool ENSO periods compared to previous lightning climatologies. The highest annual lightning counts were observed in 1997, which consisted of mostly warm ENSO seasons; the 1997–98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. The lowest lightning counts were observed in 2000, which had mostly cool or neutral phases of ENSO including the lowest Niño-3.4 anomaly of the study period. Analysis of winter season lightning flash densities substantiated the role of the ENSO cycle in winter season lightning fluctuations. Winter lightning activity increased dramatically during the 1997–98 El Niño. The lowest winter flash densities are associated with cool ENSO phases. Although 8 yr is inadequate to establish a long-term pattern, results indicate that ENSO influences lightning and that further study is warranted. As more years of lightning data are acquired, a more complete climatology can be developed.

scholarly journals Wintertime Nonbrightband Rain in California and Oregon during CALJET and PACJET: Geographic, Interannual, and Synoptic Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (5) ◽  
pp. 1199-1223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Neiman ◽  
Gary A. Wick ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
Brooks E. Martner ◽  
Allen B. White ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Operational Environment ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Synoptic Variability ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Cloud Tops

Abstract An objective algorithm presented in White et al. was applied to vertically pointing S-band (S-PROF) radar data recorded at four sites in northern California and western Oregon during four winters to assess the geographic, interannual, and synoptic variability of stratiform nonbrightband (NBB) rain in landfalling winter storms. NBB rain typically fell in a shallow layer residing beneath the melting level (<∼3.5 km MSL), whereas rainfall possessing a brightband (BB) was usually associated with deeper echoes (>∼6 km MSL). The shallow NBB echo tops often resided beneath the coverage of the operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) scanning radars yet were still capable of producing flooding rains. NBB rain contributed significantly to the total winter-season rainfall at each of the four geographically distinct sites (i.e., 18%–35% of the winter-season rain totals). In addition, the rainfall observed at the coastal mountain site near Cazadero, California (CZD), during each of four winters was composed of a significant percentage of NBB rain (18%–50%); substantial NBB rainfall occurred regardless of the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (which ranged from strong El Niño to moderate La Niña conditions). Clearly, NBB rain occurs more widely and commonly in California and Oregon than can be inferred from the single-winter, single-site study of White et al. Composite NCEP–NCAR reanalysis maps and Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) cloud-top temperature data were examined to evaluate the synoptic conditions that characterize periods of NBB precipitation observed at CZD and how they differ from periods with bright bands. The composites indicate that both rain types were tied generally to landfalling polar-cold-frontal systems. However, synoptic conditions favoring BB rain exhibited notable distinctions from those characterizing NBB periods. This included key differences in the position of the composite 300-mb jet stream and underlying cold front with respect to CZD, as well as notable differences in the intensity of the 500-mb shortwave trough offshore of CZD. The suite of BB composites exhibited dynamically consistent synoptic-scale characteristics that yielded stronger and deeper ascent over CZD than for the typically shallower NBB rain, consistent with the GOES satellite composites that showed 20-K warmer (2.3-km shallower) cloud tops for NBB rain. Composite soundings for both rain types possessed low-level potential instability, but the NBB sounding was warmer and moister with stronger low-level upslope flow, thus implying that orographically forced rainfall is enhanced during NBB conditions.

scholarly journals The Influence of Large-Scale Climate Variability on Winter Maximum Daily Precipitation over North America

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 2902-2915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Jiafeng Wang ◽  
Francis W. Zwiers ◽  
Pavel Ya Groisman
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
The North

Abstract The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to winter season daily maximum precipitation over North America, with indices representing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as predictors. It was found that ENSO and PDO have spatially consistent and statistically significant influences on extreme precipitation, while the influence of NAO is regional and is not field significant. The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation response to large-scale climate variability is similar to that of total precipitation but somewhat weaker in terms of statistical significance. An El Niño condition or high phase of PDO corresponds to a substantially increased likelihood of extreme precipitation over a vast region of southern North America but a decreased likelihood of extreme precipitation in the north, especially in the Great Plains and Canadian prairies and the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley.

Variability in fire - climate relationships in ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosemary L. Sherriff ◽  
Thomas T. Veblen
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Ponderosa Pine Forests ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Montane Zone ◽  
In Fire

Understanding the interactions of climate variability and wildfire has been a primary objective of recent fire history research. The present study examines the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on fire occurrence using fire-scar evidence from 58 sites from the lower ecotone to the upper elevational limits of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in northern Colorado. An important finding is that at low v. high elevations within the montane zone, climatic patterns conducive to years of widespread fire are different. Differences in fire–climate relationships are manifested primarily in antecedent year climate. Below ~2100 m, fires are dependent on antecedent moister conditions that favour fine fuel accumulation 2 years before dry fire years. In the upper montane zone, fires are dependent primarily on drought rather than an increase in fine fuels. Throughout the montane zone, fire is strongly linked to variations in moisture availability that in turn is linked to climate influences of ENSO, PDO and AMO. Fire occurrence is greater than expected during the phases of each index associated with drought. Regionally widespread fire years are associated with specific phase combinations of ENSO, PDO and AMO. In particular, the combination of La Niña, negative PDO and positive AMO is highly conducive to widespread fire.

Low Precipitation Observational Bias at Cooperative Climatological Stations1

1961 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 561-571
Author(s):  
Robert F. Dale ◽  
Robert H. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Central Region ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
North Central Region ◽  
North Central ◽  
The North ◽  
Exact Evaluation ◽  
Gamma Distribution Parameter ◽  
Low Precipitation

An upward bias exists in probabilities of 0 or trace weekly total precipitation since small amounts often occur undetected and are recorded as 0 or trace at climatological stations where observations are made only once a day. Exact evaluation and correction of this bias is difficult, but individual estimates of 1-week P(0,T) for substations in the north-central region of the United States can be multiplied by a factor of 0.8 to reduce them to more reasonable values. Although the opportunity for low precipitation bias decreases with increasing length of period, significant bias still persists in the 2- and 3-week estimates in the western part of the north-central region during the winter season. Since the probability of measurable precipitation is 1–P(0,T), the P(0,T) bias is carried into the precipitation probabilities, but compensating biases in the gamma-distribution parameter estimates apparently contain most of the bias in the 0.01 to 0.09-inch interval.

scholarly journals Atmospheric torques and Earth's rotation: what drove the millisecond-level length-of-day response to the 2015–2016 El Niño?

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1009-1017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sébastien B. Lambert ◽  
Steven L. Marcus ◽  
Olivier de Viron
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Earth’S Rotation ◽  
Length Of Day ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Earth's Rotation ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are classically associated with a significant increase in the length of day (LOD), with positive mountain torques arising from an east–west pressure dipole in the Pacific driving a rise of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and consequent slowing of the Earth's rotation. The large 1982–1983 event produced a lengthening of the day of about 0.9 ms, while a major ENSO event during the 2015–2016 winter season produced an LOD excursion reaching 0.81 ms in January 2016. By evaluating the anomaly in mountain and friction torques, we found that (i) as a mixed eastern–central Pacific event, the 2015–2016 mountain torque was smaller than for the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 events, which were pure eastern Pacific events, and (ii) the smaller mountain torque was compensated for by positive friction torques arising from an enhanced Hadley-type circulation in the eastern Pacific, leading to similar AAM–LOD signatures for all three extreme ENSO events. The 2015–2016 event thus contradicts the existing paradigm that mountain torques cause the Earth rotation response for extreme El Niño events.

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