scholarly journals Pan-European groundwater to atmosphere terrestrial systems climatology from a physically consistent simulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carina Furusho-Percot ◽  
Klaus Goergen ◽  
Carl Hartick ◽  
Ketan Kulkarni ◽  
Jessica Keune ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Terrestrial System ◽  
Terrestrial Water

AbstractApplying the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, TSMP, this study provides the first simulated long-term (1996–2018), high-resolution (~12.5 km) terrestrial system climatology over Europe, which comprises variables from groundwater across the land surface to the top of the atmosphere (G2A). The data set offers an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses related to short- and long-range feedback processes in space and time between the different interacting compartments of the terrestrial system. The physical consistency of simulated states and fluxes in the terrestrial system constitutes the uniqueness of the data set: while most regional climate models (RCMs) have a tendency to simplify the soil moisture and groundwater representation, TSMP explicitly simulates a full 3D soil- and groundwater dynamics, closing the terrestrial water cycle from G2A. As anthopogenic impacts are excluded, the dataset may serve as a near-natural reference for global change simulations including human water use and climate change. The data set is available as netCDF files for the pan-European EURO-CORDEX domain.

Intercomparison of terrestrial water budgets in EURO-CORDEX and TSMP evaluation runs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Eltahan ◽  
Klaus Goergen ◽  
Carina Furusho-Percot ◽  
Stefan Kollet
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Shallow Groundwater ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Terrestrial Water

<p>Water is one of Earth’s most important geo-ecosystem components. Here we present an evaluation of water cycle components using 12 EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) from ERA-Interim driven evaluation runs. Unlike the other RCMs, TSMP provides an <span>integrated</span> representation of the terrestrial water cycle by coupling the numerical weather prediction model COSMO, the land surface model CLM and the surface-subsurface hydrological model ParFlow, which simulates shallow groundwater states and fluxes. The study analyses precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), runoff (R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS=P-E-R) at a 0.11degree spatial resolution (about 12km) on EUR-11 CORDEX grid from 1996 to 2008. As reference datasets, we use ERA5 reanalysis to <span>represent</span> the complete terrestrial water budget, <span>as well as </span>the E-OBS, GLEAM and E-Run datasets for precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff, respectively. The terrestrial water budget is investigated for twenty catchments over Europe (Guadalquivir, Guadiana, Tagus, Douro, Ebro, Garonne, Rhone, Po, Seine, Rhine, Loire, Maas, Weser, Elbe, Oder, Vistuala, Danube, Dniester, Dnieper, and Neman). Annual cycles, seasonal variations, empirical frequency distributions, spatial distributions for the water cycle components and budgets over the catchments are assessed. The analysis <span>demonstrates</span> the capability of the RCMs and TSMP to reproduce the overall <span>characteristics of the</span> water cycle over the EURO-CORDEX domain<span>, which is a prerequisite if, e.g., climate change projections with the CORDEX RCMs or TSMP are to be used for vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation studies.</span></p>

scholarly journals The MSG-SEVIRI-based cloud property data record CLAAS-2

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 415-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikos Benas ◽  
Stephan Finkensieper ◽  
Martin Stengel ◽  
Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff ◽  
Timo Hanschmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Cloud Property ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Property Data ◽  
Data Record

Abstract. Clouds play a central role in the Earth's atmosphere, and satellite observations are crucial for monitoring clouds and understanding their impact on the energy budget and water cycle. Within the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF), a new cloud property data record was derived from geostationary Meteosat Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) measurements for the time frame 2004–2015. The resulting CLAAS-2 (CLoud property dAtAset using SEVIRI, Edition 2) data record is publicly available via the CM SAF website (https://doi.org/10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CLAAS/V002). In this paper we present an extensive evaluation of the CLAAS-2 cloud products, which include cloud fractional coverage, thermodynamic phase, cloud top properties, liquid/ice cloud water path and corresponding optical thickness and particle effective radius. Data validation and comparisons were performed on both level 2 (native SEVIRI grid and repeat cycle) and level 3 (daily and monthly averages and histograms) with reference datasets derived from lidar, microwave and passive imager measurements. The evaluation results show very good overall agreement with matching spatial distributions and temporal variability and small biases attributed mainly to differences in sensor characteristics, retrieval approaches, spatial and temporal samplings and viewing geometries. No major discrepancies were found. Underpinned by the good evaluation results, CLAAS-2 demonstrates that it is fit for the envisaged applications, such as process studies of the diurnal cycle of clouds and the evaluation of regional climate models. The data record is planned to be extended and updated in the future.

scholarly journals A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 889-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manolis G. Grillakis ◽  
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis ◽  
Ioannis N. Daliakopoulos ◽  
Ioannis K. Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Mapping Bias ◽  
Temperature Signal ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Bias correction of climate variables is a standard practice in climate change impact (CCI) studies. Various methodologies have been developed within the framework of quantile mapping. However, it is well known that quantile mapping may significantly modify the long-term statistics due to the time dependency of the temperature bias. Here, a method to overcome this issue without compromising the day-to-day correction statistics is presented. The methodology separates the modeled temperature signal into a normalized and a residual component relative to the modeled reference period climatology, in order to adjust the biases only for the former and preserve the signal of the later. The results show that this method allows for the preservation of the originally modeled long-term signal in the mean, the standard deviation and higher and lower percentiles of temperature. To illustrate the improvements, the methodology is tested on daily time series obtained from five Euro CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs).

scholarly journals Solar Irradiance and Temperature Variability and Projected Trends Analysis in Burundi

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
The Future

This paper assessed the variability and projected trends of solar irradiance and temperature in the East of Burundi. Observed temperature from meteorological stations and the MERRA-2 data set provided by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center are used over the historical period 1976–2005. In addition, solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered. Furthermore, projection data from eight Regional Climate Models were used over the periods 2026–2045 and 2066–2085. The variability analysis was performed using a standardized index. Projected trends and changes in the future climate were respectively detected through Mann-Kendall and t-tests. The findings over the historical period revealed increase temperature and decrease in solar irradiance over the last decades of the 20th century. At a monthly scale, the variability analysis showed that excesses in solar irradiance coincide with the dry season, which led to the conclusion that it may be a period of high production for solar energy. In the future climate, upward trends in temperature are expected over the two future periods, while no significant trends are forecasted in solar irradiance over the entire studied region. However, slight decreases and significant changes in solar irradiance have been detected over all regions.

scholarly journals Land-atmosphere interactions in sub-polar and alpine climates in the CORDEX FPS LUCAS models: Part II. The role of changing vegetation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla A. Mooney ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Edouard L. Davin ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
Surface Models

Abstract. Land cover in sub-polar and alpine regions of northern and eastern Europe have already begun changing due to natural and anthropogenic changes such as afforestation. This will impact the regional climate and hydrology upon which societies in these regions are highly reliant. This study aims to identify the impacts of afforestation/reforestation (hereafter afforestation) on snow and the snow-albedo effect, and highlight potential improvements for future model development. The study uses an ensemble of nine regional climate models for two different idealised experiments covering a 30-year period; one experiment replaces most land cover in Europe with forest while the other experiment replaces all forested areas with grass. The ensemble consists of nine regional climate models composed of different combinations of five regional atmospheric models and six land surface models. Results show that afforestation reduces the snow-albedo sensitivity index and enhances snow melt. While the direction of change is robustly modelled, there is still uncertainty in the magnitude of change. Greatest differences between models emerge in the snowmelt season. One regional climate model uses different land surface models which shows consistent changes between the three simulations during the accumulation period but differs in the snowmelt season. Together these results point to the need for further model development in representing both grass-snow and forest-snow interactions during the snowmelt season. Pathways to accomplishing this include 1) a more sophisticated representation of forest structure, 2) kilometer scale simulations, and 3) more observational studies on vegetation-snow interactions in Northern Europe.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on the water and groundwater resources of the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tibebe B. Tigabu ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Georg Hörmann ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Lake Tana Basin

Abstract Climate change impacts on the water cycle can severely affect regions that rely on groundwater to meet their water demands in the mid- to long-term. In the Lake Tana basin, Ethiopia, discharge regimes are dominated by groundwater. We assess the impacts of climate change on the groundwater contribution to streamflow (GWQ) and other major water balance components in two tributary catchments of Lake Tana. Based on an ensemble of 35 bias-corrected regional climate models and a hydrologic catchment model, likely changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) are assessed. No or only slight changes in rainfall depth are expected, but the number of rainy days is expected to decrease. Compared to the baseline average, GWQ is projected to decrease whereas surface runoff is projected to increase. Hence, rainfall trends alone are not revealing future water availability and may even be misleading, if regions rely heavily on groundwater.

Temperature and precipitation verification over Pannonian Basin in EURO-CORDEX simulations during summer season

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irida Lazic ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjevic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Pannonian Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Precipitation Bias

<p>In previous studies, it was noticed that many Regional Climate Models (RCMs) tend to overestimate mean near surface air temperature and underestimate precipitation in the Pannonian Basin during summer, leading to so-called summer drying problem [1]. Our intention for this study was to analyze temperature and precipitation biases in the state of the art EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble results in the summer season. Models’ results from the historical runs, and over time period 1971-2000, for temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure were verified against gridded E-OBS data set. In total there were 30 selected integrations, with different combinations of RCMs and Global Climate Models (GCMs). In order to assess the impact of the different lateral boundary conditions on the results from RCMs simulations, emphasizing the errors of the corresponding driving models used in 30 RCMs simulations, results from driving GCMs are also verified.</p><p>Verification results for selected time period was expressed in term of four verification scores: bias, root mean square error (RMSE), spatial correlation coefficient and standard deviations. Verification scores were evaluated within a sub-domain in the center of the region bounded by longitudes, 14E and 27E, and latitudes, 43.5N and 50N, in which topography elevation is below 200 m. This sub-domain was selected to eliminate the influence of results over the surrounding mountains on spatially averaged scores [2], because previous studies indicated a pronounced summer drying problem in low lying areas. Our analysis showed that 17 RCMs tend to overestimate the temperature, 8 RCMs tend to underestimate the temperature and 5 RCMs tend to estimate temperature around E-OBS gridded data set. On the other hand, most of the RCMs that overestimate the temperature, underestimate the precipitation. According to the results, temperature bias was in the range from -1.9°C to +4.4°C , while precipitation bias was in the range from 42% to -70%. For some models the positive temperature and negative precipitation bias were even more pronounced, leading to the conclusion, that the problem is still present in the majority of analyzed simulations. Analysis of the sea level pressure was conducted as an indirect indicator of errors in advection processes in RCMs, which was indicated, beside others, as a potential precursor of temperature and precipitation biases [3]. To better understand the sources and reasons for summer drying problem further research is needed.</p><p>[1] Kotlarski S. et al., (2014): Regional climate modelling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development 7:1297–1333, doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014</p><p>[2] Lazic I., Djurdjevic V., (2019): EURO-CORDEX regional climate models’ performances in representing temperature and precipitation over Pannonian Basin, Book of abstracts, 5th PannEx Workshop, 3-5 June 2019, Novi Sad, Serbia.</p><p>[3] Szépszó G., (2006): Adaptation of the REMO model at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (in Hungarian). Proceedings of the 31st Scientific Days for Meteorology, 125–135.</p><p><em>Keywords</em>: summer drying problem, verification, EURO-CORDEX, Pannonian Basin</p><p>Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Science and Education, under grant no. 176013.</p>

Hydrological simulations in the Rhine basin

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
B. van den Hurk ◽  
J. Beersma ◽  
G. Lenderink
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Simulations with regional climate models (RCMs), carried out for the Rhine basin, have been analyzed in the context of implications of the possible future discharge of the Rhine river. In a first analysis, the runoff generated by the RCMs is compared to observations, in order to detect the way the RCMs treat anomalies in precipitation in their land surface component. A second analysis is devoted to the frequency distribution of area averaged precipitation, and the impact of selection of various driving global climate models.

scholarly journals Objective Calibration of Regional Climate Models: Application over Europe and North America

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 819-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Bellprat ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Daniel Lüthi ◽  
Ramón De Elía ◽  
Anne Frigon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Conductivity ◽  
North America ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Parameter Calibration ◽  
Geographical Regions

Abstract An important source of model uncertainty in climate models arises from unconfined model parameters in physical parameterizations. These parameters are commonly estimated on the basis of manual adjustments (expert tuning), which carries the risk of overtuning the parameters for a specific climate region or time period. This issue is particularly germane in the case of regional climate models (RCMs), which are often developed and used in one or a few geographical regions only. This study addresses the role of objective parameter calibration in this context. Using a previously developed objective calibration methodology, an RCM is calibrated over two regions (Europe and North America) and is used to investigate the transferability of the results. A total of eight different model parameters are calibrated, using a metamodel to account for parameter interactions. The study demonstrates that the calibration is effective in reducing model biases in both domains. For Europe, this concerns in particular a pronounced reduction of the summer warm bias and the associated overestimation of interannual temperature variability that have persisted through previous expert tuning efforts and are common in many global and regional climate models. The key process responsible for this improvement is an increased hydraulic conductivity. Higher hydraulic conductivity increases the water availability at the land surface and leads to increased evaporative cooling, stronger low cloud formation, and associated reduced incoming shortwave radiation. The calibrated parameter values are found to be almost identical for both domains; that is, the parameter calibration is transferable between the two regions. This is a promising result and indicates that models may be more universal than previously considered.

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