scholarly journals Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian Boon Law ◽  
Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy ◽  
Balvinder Singh Gill ◽  
Sarbhan Singh ◽  
Bala Murali Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Control ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

AbstractThe susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, $$\beta_{t}$$ β t and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Predicting the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19: A time-varying SIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian Boon Law ◽  
Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy ◽  
Balvinder Singh Gill ◽  
Sarbhan Singh Lakha Singh ◽  
Bala Murali Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Control ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Abstract The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I), and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, βt, and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily, and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4·7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7–day and 14–day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I, and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian Boon Law ◽  
Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy ◽  
Balvinder Singh Gill ◽  
Sarbhan Singh Lakha Singh ◽  
Bala Murali Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Control ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Abstract The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I), and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, βt, and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily, and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4·7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7–day and 14–day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I, and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The attainment of herd immunity with a reducing risk of contact infection in modelling 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian Boon Law ◽  
Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy ◽  
Hishamshah Ibrahim ◽  
Noor Hisham Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mixed Population ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
And Control ◽  
Model Features

Abstract The risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals in a randomly mixed population can be reduced by the presence of immune individuals and this principle forms the fundamental of herd immunity. The conventional susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model features an infection-induced herd immunity model, but does not include the reducing risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals in the transmission model, therefore tends to overestimate the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Here we show that the reducing risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals can be achieved by incorporating the proportion of susceptible individuals (model A) or the inverse of proportion of recovered individuals (model B) in the force of infection of the SIR model. We numerically simulated the conventional SIR model and both new SIR models A and B under the exact condition with a basic reproduction number of 3·0. Prior to the numerical simulation, the threshold for the eradication of infectious disease through herd immunity was expected to be 0·667 (66·7%) for all three models. All three models performed likewise at the initial stage of disease transmission. In the conventional SIR model, the infectious disease subsided when 94·0 % of the population had been infected and recovered, way above the expected threshold for eradication and control of the infectious disease. Both models A and B simulated the infectious disease to diminish when 66·7% and 75·6% of the population had been infected, showing herd immunity might protect more susceptible individuals from the infectious disease as compared to the projection generated by the conventional SIR. Our study shows that model A provides a better framework for modelling herd immunity through vaccination, while model B provides a better framework for modelling herd immunity through infection. Both models overcome the insufficiency of the conventional SIR model in attaining the effect of herd immunity in modelling outputs, which is important and relevant for modelling infectious disease, such as the COVID-19 in a randomly mixed population.

scholarly journals The attainment of herd immunity with reduced risk of contact infection in modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian Boon Law ◽  
Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy ◽  
Hishamshah Ibrahim ◽  
Noor Hisham Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mixed Population ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
And Control ◽  
Reduced Risk

Abstract The risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals in a randomly mixed population can be reduced by the presence of immune individuals and this concept is referred to as herd immunity1–3. The conventional susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model does not feature a reduced risk of susceptible individuals in the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, therefore violates the fundamental of herd immunity4. Here we show that the reduced risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals in the SIR model can be attained by incorporating the proportion of susceptible individuals (model A) or the inverse of proportion of recovered individuals (model B) in the force of infection of the SIR model. We simulated the conventional SIR model and both new SIR models under the exact condition with a basic reproduction ratio of 3.0 and an expected herd immunity threshold of 0.667 (66.7%). All three models performed likewise at the initial stage of an epidemic. In the conventional SIR model, the epidemic continued until 94.0 % of the population had been infected and recovered, way above the threshold for eradication and control of the epidemic. Both models A and B simulated the epidemic waning when 66.7% and 75.6% of the population had been infected, as a result of the herd effect. As a result, model A provides a better framework for modelling vaccine-induced herd or population immunity, while model B provides a better framework for modelling infection-induced herd or population immunity. Our results demonstrate how the new modelling framework overcomes the drawback of the conventional SIR model and attain the effect of herd immunity in modelling outputs, which is important for modelling infectious disease in a randomly mixed population, especially for the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Comparison of cephalometric measurements from three radiological clinics

2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Antonio Gonçalves ◽  
Lígia Schiavon ◽  
João Sarmento Pereira Neto ◽  
Darcy Flávio Nouer
Keyword(s):  
Orthodontic Treatment ◽  
Great Variability ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Cephalometric Analysis ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
The Mean ◽  
School Of Dentistry ◽  
And Control ◽  
Child Dentistry ◽  
Cephalometric Measurements

The orthodontic documentation carried out in radiological clinics is essential for diagnosis, planning and control of the orthodontic treatment. Amongst the diagnosis elements used are the cephalometric measurements, and errors can be incorporated as they are obtained. The objective of this work was to evaluate the values of some cephalometric measurements obtained in three radiological clinics using 30 lateral cephalometric radiographs of the head randomly chosen from the archives of the Department of Child Dentistry (Discipline of Orthodontics), School of Dentistry of Piracicaba, UNICAMP. These values were compared with the measurements obtained manually (control group) using variance analysis and Tukey’s and Friedman’s tests. Of the fourteen cephalometric measurements evaluated, the results demonstrated that only four of them presented statistically significant differences: IMPA, 1-NA, FMA, and H-nose. We concluded that although the majority of the mean cephalometric values did not present statistically significant differences, a great variability in the results was found when all the radiographic values were compared. This variability may influence the interpretation of the cephalometric measurements. Hence, we suggest that when the practitioner receives orthodontic documentation, he/she should redo the cephalometric analysis and compare the measurement values found with those presented to him. In addition, the practitioner should be prepared to use other elements for diagnosis, planning and control of the orthodontic treatment.

Prothrombin Time Standardization: Report of the Expert Panel on Oral Anticoagulant Control

1979 ◽  
Vol 42 (04) ◽  
pp. 1073-1114 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prothrombin Time ◽  
Expert Panel ◽  
The Other ◽  
Rabbit Brain ◽  
Calibration Constant ◽  
Freeze Dried ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Point Of Intersection ◽  
And Control ◽  
Standardization Report

SummaryIn collaborative experiments in 199 laboratories, nine commercial thromboplastins, four thromboplastins held by the National Institute for Biological Standards and Control (NIBS & C), London and the British Comparative Thromboplastin were tested on fresh normal and coumarin plasmas, and on three series of freeze-dried plasmas. One of these was made from coumarin plasmas and the other two were prepared from normal plasmas; in each series, one plasma was normal and the other two represented different degrees of coumarin defect.Each thromboplastin was calibrated against NIBS&C rabbit brain 70/178, from the slope of the line joining the origin to the point of intersection of the mean ratios of coumarin/normal prothrombin times when the ratios obtained with the two thromboplastins on the same fresh plasmas were plotted against each other. From previous evidence, the slopes were calculated which would have been obtained against the NIBS&C “research standard” thromboplastin 67/40, and termed the “calibration constant” of each thromboplastin. Values obtained from the freeze-dried coumarin plasmas gave generally similar results to those from fresh plasmas for all thromboplastins, whereas values from the artificial plasmas agreed with those from fresh plasmas only when similar thromboplastins were being compared.Taking into account the slopes of the calibration lines and the variation between laboratories, precision in obtaining a patient’s prothrombin time was similar for all thromboplastins.

PLANNING TO MEET THE GROWING DEMANDS ON NORTHLANDS WATER RESOURCES

1986 ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
D.L. Roke
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Development ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Careful Planning ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
Sources Of Pollution ◽  
And Control ◽  
Resource Management Planning ◽  
Pastoral Farming

The growth in horticultural and some industrial development in selected areas of Northland has led to a need for more specific and careful planning and control of limited resources in a number of major catchments. The potential irrigation demands for horhculture comprise over 60% of Northland's potential water requirements. By contrast, farm water supply needs are only 11% of these needs. Because of their importance to the Northland economy, and in the legislation these needs are given a high priority in water resource management planning. Land uses, including pastoral farming, require careful operation to reduce diffuse sources of pollution.

CHROMATOGRAPHY OF THE 17-KETOGENIC STEROIDS IN THE DIAGNOSIS AND CONTROL OF CONGENITAL ADRENAL HYPERPLASIA

1960 ◽  
Vol XXXIII (II) ◽  
pp. 230-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eileen E. Hill
Keyword(s):  
Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia ◽  
List Type ◽  
Adrenal Hyperplasia ◽  
Normal Children ◽  
Paediatric Practice ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Cortisone Therapy ◽  
And Control ◽  
Clinical Problems ◽  
Stimulation Of

ABSTRACT A method for the fractionation of the urinary 17-ketogenic steroids with no oxygen grouping at C11 and those oxygenated at C11, is applied to the clinical problems of congenital adrenal hyperplasia. In normal children the mean ratio of the non-oxygenated to oxygenated steroids is 0.24. In childrern with congenital adrenal hyperplasia the ratio is 2.3. The reason for this difference in ratio is discussed. The changes in ratio found under stimulation of the adrenal gland with exogenous or endogenous corticotrophin and the suppression with cortisone therapy are studied. This test can be applied to isolated samples of urine, a major advantage in paediatric practice, and can be carried out in routine laboratories. It is found to be reliable in the diagnosis and sensitive in the control of congenital adrenal hyperplasia.

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