scholarly journals Unraveling the dynamic importance of county-level features in trajectory of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingchun Li ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Sanghyeon Lee ◽  
Xin Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
County Level ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Social Network Structure ◽  
The Social ◽  
Heterogeneous Features ◽  
Feature Importance ◽  
Machine Learning Models

AbstractThe objective of this study was to investigate the importance of multiple county-level features in the trajectory of COVID-19. We examined feature importance across 2787 counties in the United States using data-driven machine learning models. Existing mathematical models of disease spread usually focused on the case prediction with different infection rates without incorporating multiple heterogeneous features that could impact the spatial and temporal trajectory of COVID-19. Recognizing this, we trained a data-driven model using 23 features representing six key influencing factors affecting the pandemic spread: social demographics of counties, population activities, mobility within the counties, movement across counties, disease attributes, and social network structure. Also, we categorized counties into multiple groups according to their population densities, and we divided the trajectory of COVID-19 into three stages: the outbreak stage, the social distancing stage, and the reopening stage. The study aimed to answer two research questions: (1) The extent to which the importance of heterogeneous features evolved at different stages; (2) The extent to which the importance of heterogeneous features varied across counties with different characteristics. We fitted a set of random forest models to determine weekly feature importance. The results showed that: (1) Social demographic features, such as gross domestic product, population density, and minority status maintained high-importance features throughout stages of COVID-19 across 2787 studied counties; (2) Within-county mobility features had the highest importance in counties with higher population densities; (3) The feature reflecting the social network structure (Facebook, social connectedness index), had higher importance for counties with higher population densities. The results showed that the data-driven machine learning models could provide important insights to inform policymakers regarding feature importance for counties with various population densities and at different stages of a pandemic life cycle.

scholarly journals AB0652 MACHINE LEARNING TO PREDICT EARLY TNF INHIBITOR USERS IN PATIENTS WITH ANKYLOSING SPONDYLITIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1620.1-1621
Author(s):  
J. Lee ◽  
H. Kim ◽  
S. Y. Kang ◽  
S. Lee ◽  
Y. H. Eun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Ankylosing Spondylitis ◽  
Tnf Inhibitors ◽  
Tnf Inhibitor ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Feature Importance ◽  
Importance Analysis ◽  
Baseline Characteristics ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background:Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are important drugs in treating patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). However, they are not used as a first-line treatment for AS. There is an insufficient treatment response to the first-line treatment, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), in over 40% of patients. If we can predict who will need TNF inhibitors at an earlier phase, adequate treatment can be provided at an appropriate time and potential damages can be avoided. There is no precise predictive model at present. Recently, various machine learning methods show great performances in predictions using clinical data.Objectives:We aim to generate an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.Methods:The baseline demographic and laboratory data of patients who visited Samsung Medical Center rheumatology clinic from Dec. 2003 to Sep. 2018 were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: early TNF inhibitor users treated by TNF inhibitors within six months of their follow-up (early-TNF users), and the others (non-early-TNF users). Machine learning models were formulated to predict the early-TNF users using the baseline data. Additionally, feature importance analysis was performed to delineate significant baseline characteristics.Results:The numbers of early-TNF and non-early-TNF users were 90 and 509, respectively. The best performing ANN model utilized 3 hidden layers with 50 hidden nodes each; its performance (area under curve (AUC) = 0.75) was superior to logistic regression model, support vector machine, and random forest model (AUC = 0.72, 0.65, and 0.71, respectively) in predicting early-TNF users. Feature importance analysis revealed erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and height as the top significant baseline characteristics for predicting early-TNF users. Among these characteristics, height was revealed by machine learning models but not by conventional statistical techniques.Conclusion:Our model displayed superior performance in predicting early TNF users compared with logistic regression and other machine learning models. Machine learning can be a vital tool in predicting treatment response in various rheumatologic diseases.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

A Survey on Data-driven Network Intrusion Detection

2022 ◽  
Vol 54 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Dylan Chou ◽  
Meng Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Intrusion Detection ◽  
Real World ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Network Intrusion Detection ◽  
Large Network ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Simulated Environments ◽  
Network Intrusion ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Data-driven network intrusion detection (NID) has a tendency towards minority attack classes compared to normal traffic. Many datasets are collected in simulated environments rather than real-world networks. These challenges undermine the performance of intrusion detection machine learning models by fitting machine learning models to unrepresentative “sandbox” datasets. This survey presents a taxonomy with eight main challenges and explores common datasets from 1999 to 2020. Trends are analyzed on the challenges in the past decade and future directions are proposed on expanding NID into cloud-based environments, devising scalable models for large network data, and creating labeled datasets collected in real-world networks.

scholarly journals Application of Machine Learning Methods in the Task of Identifying User Accounts in Two Social Networks

2019 ◽  
pp. 29-43
Author(s):  
Anastasiya A. Korepanova ◽  
◽  
Valerii D. Oliseenko ◽  
Maxim V. Abramov ◽  
Alexander L. Tulupyev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Information System ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
User Profiles ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
The Social ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The article describes the approach to solving the problem of comparing user profiles of different social networks and identifying those that belong to one person. An appropriate method is proposed based on a comparison of the social environment and the values of account profile attributes in two different social networks. The results of applying various machine learning models to solving this problem are compared. The novelty of the approach lies in the proposed new combination of various methods and application to new social networks. The practical significance of the study is to automate the process of determining the ownership of profiles in various social networks to one user. These results can be applied in the task of constructing a meta-profile of a user of an information system for the subsequent construction of a profile of his vulnerabilities, as well as in other studies devoted to social networks.

scholarly journals Machine learning to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seulkee Lee ◽  
Yeonghee Eun ◽  
Hyungjin Kim ◽  
Hoon-Suk Cha ◽  
Eun-Mi Koh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Ankylosing Spondylitis ◽  
Tnf Inhibitor ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Feature Importance ◽  
Importance Analysis ◽  
Baseline Characteristics ◽  
Machine Learning Models

AbstractWe aim to generate an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis. The baseline demographic and laboratory data of patients who visited Samsung Medical Center rheumatology clinic from Dec. 2003 to Sep. 2018 were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: early-TNF and non-early-TNF users. Machine learning models were formulated to predict the early-TNF users using the baseline data. Feature importance analysis was performed to delineate significant baseline characteristics. The numbers of early-TNF and non-early-TNF users were 90 and 505, respectively. The performance of the ANN model, based on the area under curve (AUC) for a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.783, was superior to logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, and XGBoost models (for an ROC curve of 0.719, 0.699, 0.761, and 0.713, respectively) in predicting early-TNF users. Feature importance analysis revealed CRP and ESR as the top significant baseline characteristics for predicting early-TNF users. Our model displayed superior performance in predicting early-TNF users compared with logistic regression and other machine learning models. Machine learning can be a vital tool in predicting treatment response in various rheumatologic diseases.

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