scholarly journals Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomomichi Ogata ◽  
Ryo Mizuta ◽  
Yukimasa Adachi ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Tomoaki Ose
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Coupling Effect ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Ocean Coupling

scholarly journals IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL HAZARDS DUE TO WINTER CYCLONE AROUND JAPAN USING LARGE ENSEMBLE DATABASE

2018 ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Junichi Ninomiya ◽  
Yuya Taka ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Coastal Hazard

IPCC AR5 reported that the extreme events like tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and so on will be strengthen. The winter cyclone is one of the cause of coastal hazard. The winter cyclone is defined as the extratropical depression with rapid development. It causes high wave and storm surge from winter to spring, and Japan sometimes have casualties and economical loss. Some researches reported that the number of winter cyclone tend to increase. Because its tendency seems to go on, future change estimation of winter cyclone activity is important for disaster reduction. Understanding of winter cyclone is developing. For example, Yoshida and Asuma showed that the winter cyclones are classified by their track and the development of winter cyclone is related to lateral heat flux. On the other hand, almost of all researches of impact assessment on coastal hazard focus on the tropical cyclone. Mori et al. showed the maximum potential storm surge in Japan using maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclone and GCM outputs, and large storm surge will increase. Shimura et al. showed that extreme wave caused by the tropical cyclone will develop at offshore region of east from Japan. This research aims to reveal stochastic future change of winter cyclone using the database for policy decision making for future climate change (after here, d4PDF) which is huge ensemble dataset of present- and futureclimate. Then, the risk of coastal hazard will be evaluate.

scholarly journals Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: a case study of Southeast China coast

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingchuan Nie ◽  
Qingyong Wuxi ◽  
Jiachun Li ◽  
Feng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coupling Effect ◽  
Storm Tide ◽  
Southeast China ◽  
China Coast ◽  
Water Elevation

Abstract. A methodology for assessing the storm tide inundation under TCI (tropical cyclone intensification) and SLR (sea level rise) is proposed, which integrates the trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis. In the trend analysis, the potential TCI and SLR can be estimated based on the long-term historical data of TC (tropical cyclone) and MSL (mean sea level) considering the non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effect; the numerical simulation is relied on the ADCIRC+SWAN model, which is capable of taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect to improve the precision of water elevation prediction; the water elevation is then analyzed on the GIS platform, the potential inundation regions can be identified. Based on this methodology, a case study for the Southeast China coast, one of the storm surge prone areas in China, is presented. The results show that the high water elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries, the maximal water elevations caused by the typhoon wind of 100-year recurrence period can reach as high as 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Non-stationary TCI and SLR due to climate change can further deteriorate the situation and enhance the risk of inundation there, i.e. the potential inundation area would expand by 108 % to about 798 km2 compared with the situation without considering TCI and SLR. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there.

scholarly journals BASIC EXAMINATION OF FUTURE CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STORM SURGE PROPERTIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Sota Nakajo ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
Hajime Mase
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
Correlation Algorithm ◽  
Future Prediction

Recently high-resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) shows that global climate changes may cause the future change of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) characteristics, such as frequency, developing process and intensity. However, there are two difficulties for assessment of future TC disaster, one is uncertainty of future prediction in GCM, and another is shortage of sample TC data. In this paper, we estimated future changes of TC properties and reduced uncertainty by ensemble averaging of multi-GCM prediction results, and generated many synthetic TC data with Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model (GSTCM). In addition, GSTCM which have empirical temporal correlation algorithm was improved for the reproducibility of arrival TC statistics by cluster analysis of TC data. This upgrade could pave the way to local future prediction of TC disaster.

The impact of upper tropospheric temperature change on tropical cyclone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nawo Eguchi ◽  
Kenta Kobayashi ◽  
Kosuke Ito ◽  
Tomoe Nasuno
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Cold Simulation ◽  
The Impact

<p>We evaluate the impact of temperature at the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) on the tropical cyclone (TC) generation and its development by using the nonhydrostatic atmosphere-ocean coupling axisymmetric numerical model [Rotunno and Emanuel, 1987; Ito et al., 2010]. In the case of cold simulation at UTLS, the maximum wind and the minimum sea level pressure are increased and decreased than the control run, respectively. The magnitude of intensity change is the approximately 4 times larger than the change estimated from the MPIs (Maximum Potential Intensity [Bister and Emanuel,1998; Holland, 1997]). Further, during the development phase, the cold air mass intrudes to the middle troposphere from the upper troposphere at the center of TC, which is not seen in the warm case, leading the atmosphere unstable and enhanced the upward motion and then the TC got stronger.</p>

The ice and ocean coupling effect on towing cables

2021 ◽  
Vol 233 ◽  
pp. 109203
Author(s):  
Wei Wang ◽  
Zhonghao Ren ◽  
Gang Ma ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Coupling Effect ◽  
Ocean Coupling

scholarly journals A Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Modeling System: Simulation of the Intensity of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Liu ◽  
Huiqing Liu ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
Changlong Guan ◽  
Dongliang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Negative Feedback ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Ocean Modeling ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Spray ◽  
Wave Coupling ◽  
Sst Cooling ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean modeling system (CAWOMS) based on the integration of atmosphere–wave, atmosphere–ocean, and wave–current interaction processes is developed. The component models consist of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model, and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The coupling between the model components is implemented by using the Model Coupling Toolkit. The CAWOMS takes into account various wave-related effects, including wave state and sea-spray-affected sea surface roughness, sea spray heat fluxes, and dissipative heating in atmosphere–wave coupling. It also considers oceanic effects such as the feedback of sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and the impact of sea surface current on wind stress in atmosphere–ocean coupling. In addition, wave–current interactions, including radiation stress and wave-induced bottom stress, are also taken into account. The CAWOMS is applied to the simulation of an idealized tropical cyclone (TC) to investigate the effects of atmosphere–wave–ocean coupling on TC intensity. Results show that atmosphere–wave coupling strengthens the TC system, while the thermodynamic coupling between the atmosphere and ocean weakens the TC as a result of the negative feedback of TC-induced SST cooling. The overall effects of atmosphere–wave–ocean coupling on TC intensity are determined by the balance between wave-related positive feedback and the negative feedback attributable to TC-induced SST cooling.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document