scholarly journals Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Yang ◽  
Shuwen Zhang ◽  
Yansui Liu ◽  
Xiaoshi Xing ◽  
Alex de Sherbinin

Abstract Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model.

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Rajarshi Dasgupta ◽  
Brian Johnson ◽  
Chitresh Saraswat ◽  
Mrittika Basu ◽  
...  

Rapid changes in land use and land cover pattern have exerted an irreversible change on different natural resources, and water resources in particular, throughout the world. Khambhat City, located in the Western coastal plain of India, is witnessing a rapid expansion of human settlements, as well as agricultural and industrial activities. This development has led to a massive increase in groundwater use (the only source of potable water in the area), brought about significant changes to land management practices (e.g., increased fertilizer use), and resulted in much greater amounts of household and industrial waste. To better understand the impacts of this development on the local groundwater, this study investigated the relationship between groundwater quality change and land use change over the 2001–2011 period; a time during which rapid development occurred. Water quality measurements from 66 groundwater sampling wells were analyzed for the years 2001 and 2011, and two water quality indicators (NO3− and Cl− concentration) were mapped and correlated against the changes in land use. Our results indicated that the groundwater quality has deteriorated, with both nitrate (NO3−) and chloride (Cl−) levels being elevated significantly. Contour maps of NO3− and Cl− were compared with the land use maps for 2001 and 2011, respectively, to identify the impact of land use changes on water quality. Zonal statistics suggested that conversion from barren land to agricultural land had the most significant negative impact on water quality, demonstrating a positive correlation with accelerated levels of both NO3− and Cl−. The amount of influence of the different land use categories on NO3− increase was, in order, agriculture > bare land > lake > marshland > built-up > river. Whereas, for higher concentration of Cl− in the groundwater, the order of influence of the different land use categories was marshland > built-up > agriculture > bare land > lake > river. This study will help policy planners and decision makers to understand the trend of groundwater development and hence to take timely mitigation measures for its sustainable management.


Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.


Author(s):  
Tanjeeb Ahmed ◽  
Suman Kumar Mitra ◽  
Rezwana Rafiq ◽  
Sanjana Islam

In recent decades, a major shift in the land use pattern has been observed in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. To understand and model the impact of these land use changes on transportation demand, this study aimed to determine the trip generation rates for six different land use categories adjacent to Mirpur Road in Dhaka. A total of 20 establishments consisting of six land use categories were selected for the collection of data on person trip rates and respective modal share by manual counts and intercept surveys. These data were used to develop vehicular trip generation rates for each land use category in passenger car equivalents as a uniform unit of comparison. Results showed that commercial and healthcare land uses had the highest average and peak-hour trip rates. There was also a significant variation in the share of eight transport mode categories among the trips generated by the land uses. The peak-hour trip generation rates of the study area were found to be different from the values established by the Institute of Transportation Engineers which corresponds to the fact that trip generation depends on a host of factors, such as surrounding land uses, modal share, the economic condition of a region, and so forth, rather than on a single factor inherent to the land use. The findings of this research can help to determine the trip generation impact of new establishments and consequently identify suitable locations to minimize the impact.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 4391-4419 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Clymans ◽  
E. Struyf ◽  
G. Govers ◽  
F. Vandevenne ◽  
D. J. Conley

Abstract. Human land use changes directly affect silica (Si) mobilisation and Si storage in terrestrial ecosystems and influence Si export from the continents, although the magnitudes of the impact are unknown. Yet biogenic silica (BSi) in soils is an understudied aspect. We have quantified and compared total biogenic (PSia) and easily soluble (PSie) Si pools at four sites along a gradient of disturbance in southern Sweden. An estimate of the magnitude of change in temperate continental BSi pools due to human disturbance is provided. Land use clearly affects BSi pools and their distribution. Total PSia and PSie for a continuous forested site at Siggaboda Nature Reserve (66 900 ± 22 800 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 952 ± 16 kg SiO2 ha−1) are significantly higher than disturbed land use types from the Råshult Culture Reserve including arable land (28 800 ± 7200 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 239 ± 91 kg SiO2 ha−1), pasture sites (27 300 ± 5980 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 370 ± 129 kg SiO2 ha−1) and grazed forest (23 600 ± 6370 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 346 ± 123 kg SiO2 ha−1). Vertical PSia and PSie profiles show significant (p<0.05) variation among the sites. These differences in size and distribution are interpreted as the long-term effect of reduced BSi replenishment and increased mobilisation of the PSia in disturbed soils. In temperate regions, total PSia showed a 10 % decline since agricultural development (3000BCE). Recent agricultural expansion (after 1700CE) has resulted in an average export of 1.1 ± 0.8 Tmol Si yr−1, leading to an annual contribution of ca. 20 % to the global land-ocean Si flux carried by rivers. Human activities clearly exert a long-term influence on Si cycling in soils and contribute significantly to the land-ocean Si flux.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 2281-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Clymans ◽  
E. Struyf ◽  
G. Govers ◽  
F. Vandevenne ◽  
D. J. Conley

Abstract. Human land use changes perturb biogeochemical silica (Si) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. This directly affects Si mobilisation and Si storage and influences Si export from the continents, although the magnitude of the impact is unknown. A major reason for our lack of understanding is that very little information exists on how land use affects amorphous silica (ASi) storage in soils. We have quantified and compared total alkali-extracted (PSia) and easily soluble (PSie) Si pools at four sites along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance in southern Sweden. Land use clearly affects ASi pools and their distribution. Total PSia and PSie for a continuous forested site at Siggaboda Nature Reserve (66 900 ± 22 800 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 952 ± 16 kg SiO2 ha−1) are significantly higher than disturbed land use types from the Råshult Culture Reserve including arable land (28 800 ± 7200 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 239 ± 91 kg SiO2 ha−1), pasture sites (27 300 ± 5980 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 370 ± 129 kg SiO2 ha−1) and grazed forest (23 600 ± 6370 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 346 ± 123 kg SiO2 ha−1). Vertical PSia and PSie profiles show significant (p < 0.05) variation among the sites. These differences in size and distribution are interpreted as the long-term effect of reduced ASi replenishment, as well as changes in ecosystem specific pedogenic processes and increased mobilisation of the PSia in disturbed soils. We have also made a first, though rough, estimate of the magnitude of change in temperate continental ASi pools due to human disturbance. Assuming that our data are representative, we estimate that total ASi storage in soils has declined by ca. 10 % since the onset of agricultural development (3000 BCE). Recent agricultural expansion (after 1700 CE) may have resulted in an average additional export of 1.1 ± 0.8 Tmol Si yr−1 from the soil reservoir to aquatic ecosystems. This is ca. 20 % to the global land-ocean Si flux carried by rivers. It is necessary to update this estimate in future studies, incorporating differences in pedology, geology and climatology over temperate regions, but data are currently not sufficient. Yet, our results emphasize the importance of human activities for Si cycling in soils and for the land-ocean Si flux.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Eyad H Fadda ◽  
Fatemah Al Shebli ◽  
Ayshah Al Kabi

Many studies house indicated the increase of the proportion of urban areas over the arable land in many provinces of the Sultanate of Oman. This came as a result of urban growth and development processes taking place since the era of the Renaissance which started in 1970. Consequently, spatial variation in land use is an important issue to be taken into consideration, because lands are being converted to be less productive, due to the lack of raw soil, vegetation, and water as a result of human exploitation of the limited resources in different ways, in addition to the natural factors of droughts and floods and all that will eventually lead to land degradation. Barka province (wilayat) in al Batinah Governorate is one of the provinces, which has been affected by land cover/land use changes due to several reasons. Therefore, this study will focus on the determination of land use changes, whether commercial or residential that have been occurred in the province, in addition to the loss of agricultural areas and fertile land during the period from 1987 to 2015. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) were utilized in order to delineate and to determine the cause of shrinking in the arable land and fertile land. Satellite images were used to detect the change in land use/land cover by applying selective digital image processing techniques such as supervised classification and change detection. Thematic maps were prepared using GIS software with attribute data about the land uses in the study area, which highlights and show the impact of urban growth on land degradation.


Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andong Guo ◽  
Yuqing Zhang ◽  
Qing Hao

Changes in land use/cover are among the most prominent impacts that humans have on the environment. Therefore, exploring land use/cover change is of great significance to urban planning and sustainable development. In this study, we preprocessed multiperiod land use and socioeconomic data, combined with spatial zoning, multilayer perception (MLP) artificial neural network, and Markov chain (MC), to construct a cellular automaton model of spatial zoning. Moreover, with the help of ArcGIS 10.2 and TerrSet 18.07 software, we explore the current status of land use and predict future changes. The results showed that drastic changes have occurred among different land use classes in Jinzhou District over the past 13 years owing to the impact of economic development and reclamation projects. Construction land, arable land, and waters have changed by +85.09, −24.42, and −23.62 km2, respectively. By comparing the FoM and Kappa coefficients, we concluded that the prediction accuracy of partitioned MLP-MC is better than that of unpartitioned MLP-MC. Therefore, using the spatial zoning approach to identify the conversion rules among land use classes in different zones can more effectively predict future land use changes and provide a reference for urban planning and policy making.


2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 565-579
Author(s):  
P. Ciaian

This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.


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