scholarly journals Monitoring and Simulation of Dynamic Spatiotemporal Land Use/Cover Changes

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andong Guo ◽  
Yuqing Zhang ◽  
Qing Hao
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Past ◽  
Socioeconomic Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conversion Rules ◽  
Better Than

Changes in land use/cover are among the most prominent impacts that humans have on the environment. Therefore, exploring land use/cover change is of great significance to urban planning and sustainable development. In this study, we preprocessed multiperiod land use and socioeconomic data, combined with spatial zoning, multilayer perception (MLP) artificial neural network, and Markov chain (MC), to construct a cellular automaton model of spatial zoning. Moreover, with the help of ArcGIS 10.2 and TerrSet 18.07 software, we explore the current status of land use and predict future changes. The results showed that drastic changes have occurred among different land use classes in Jinzhou District over the past 13 years owing to the impact of economic development and reclamation projects. Construction land, arable land, and waters have changed by +85.09, −24.42, and −23.62 km2, respectively. By comparing the FoM and Kappa coefficients, we concluded that the prediction accuracy of partitioned MLP-MC is better than that of unpartitioned MLP-MC. Therefore, using the spatial zoning approach to identify the conversion rules among land use classes in different zones can more effectively predict future land use changes and provide a reference for urban planning and policy making.

scholarly journals Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Yang ◽  
Shuwen Zhang ◽  
Yansui Liu ◽  
Xiaoshi Xing ◽  
Alex de Sherbinin
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Map Comparison ◽  
Adequate Model ◽  
Historical Land Use ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reconstruction Model ◽  
Use Categories

Abstract Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model.

scholarly journals Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic impact on biogenic Si pools in temperate soils

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 4391-4419 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Clymans ◽  
E. Struyf ◽  
G. Govers ◽  
F. Vandevenne ◽  
D. J. Conley
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Disturbed Land ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Human land use changes directly affect silica (Si) mobilisation and Si storage in terrestrial ecosystems and influence Si export from the continents, although the magnitudes of the impact are unknown. Yet biogenic silica (BSi) in soils is an understudied aspect. We have quantified and compared total biogenic (PSia) and easily soluble (PSie) Si pools at four sites along a gradient of disturbance in southern Sweden. An estimate of the magnitude of change in temperate continental BSi pools due to human disturbance is provided. Land use clearly affects BSi pools and their distribution. Total PSia and PSie for a continuous forested site at Siggaboda Nature Reserve (66 900 ± 22 800 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 952 ± 16 kg SiO2 ha−1) are significantly higher than disturbed land use types from the Råshult Culture Reserve including arable land (28 800 ± 7200 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 239 ± 91 kg SiO2 ha−1), pasture sites (27 300 ± 5980 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 370 ± 129 kg SiO2 ha−1) and grazed forest (23 600 ± 6370 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 346 ± 123 kg SiO2 ha−1). Vertical PSia and PSie profiles show significant (p<0.05) variation among the sites. These differences in size and distribution are interpreted as the long-term effect of reduced BSi replenishment and increased mobilisation of the PSia in disturbed soils. In temperate regions, total PSia showed a 10 % decline since agricultural development (3000BCE). Recent agricultural expansion (after 1700CE) has resulted in an average export of 1.1 ± 0.8 Tmol Si yr−1, leading to an annual contribution of ca. 20 % to the global land-ocean Si flux carried by rivers. Human activities clearly exert a long-term influence on Si cycling in soils and contribute significantly to the land-ocean Si flux.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic impact on amorphous silica pools in temperate soils

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 2281-2293 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Clymans ◽  
E. Struyf ◽  
G. Govers ◽  
F. Vandevenne ◽  
D. J. Conley
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Amorphous Silica ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
Disturbed Land ◽  
Pedogenic Processes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Human land use changes perturb biogeochemical silica (Si) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. This directly affects Si mobilisation and Si storage and influences Si export from the continents, although the magnitude of the impact is unknown. A major reason for our lack of understanding is that very little information exists on how land use affects amorphous silica (ASi) storage in soils. We have quantified and compared total alkali-extracted (PSia) and easily soluble (PSie) Si pools at four sites along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance in southern Sweden. Land use clearly affects ASi pools and their distribution. Total PSia and PSie for a continuous forested site at Siggaboda Nature Reserve (66 900 ± 22 800 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 952 ± 16 kg SiO2 ha−1) are significantly higher than disturbed land use types from the Råshult Culture Reserve including arable land (28 800 ± 7200 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 239 ± 91 kg SiO2 ha−1), pasture sites (27 300 ± 5980 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 370 ± 129 kg SiO2 ha−1) and grazed forest (23 600 ± 6370 kg SiO2 ha−1 and 346 ± 123 kg SiO2 ha−1). Vertical PSia and PSie profiles show significant (p < 0.05) variation among the sites. These differences in size and distribution are interpreted as the long-term effect of reduced ASi replenishment, as well as changes in ecosystem specific pedogenic processes and increased mobilisation of the PSia in disturbed soils. We have also made a first, though rough, estimate of the magnitude of change in temperate continental ASi pools due to human disturbance. Assuming that our data are representative, we estimate that total ASi storage in soils has declined by ca. 10 % since the onset of agricultural development (3000 BCE). Recent agricultural expansion (after 1700 CE) may have resulted in an average additional export of 1.1 ± 0.8 Tmol Si yr−1 from the soil reservoir to aquatic ecosystems. This is ca. 20 % to the global land-ocean Si flux carried by rivers. It is necessary to update this estimate in future studies, incorporating differences in pedology, geology and climatology over temperate regions, but data are currently not sufficient. Yet, our results emphasize the importance of human activities for Si cycling in soils and for the land-ocean Si flux.

scholarly journals Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Nikolaos Vavlas ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The focus of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources and to find suitable drought indices to identify the occurrence, frequency and severity of the past and future drought events. The Ebbw catchment, Wales, UK was selected for this study. Data for the 1961–2012 period were used as input to the DiCaSM model. Following model calibration and validation, the model was run with UKCP09 future climate scenarios for three periods (30 years each) up to 2099 under three emission scenarios. The reconnaissance drought index, the standardized precipitation index, soil moisture deficit and the wetness index were able to reproduce the past drought events. The data of UKCP09, simple change factors to temperature (± °C) and rainfall (%) using Joint Probability plot and daily values of the weather generator were input to the model. The projections indicated that the streamflow and groundwater recharge are likely to increase in winter and to decrease in spring, summer and autumn. Under all emission scenarios, the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and the streamflow is projected in the 2050s and 2080s under high emission scenario. Moreover, under medium and high emission scenarios, severity and frequency of the drought events are likely to be high. Land use change from grass and/or arable to woodland had significant impact on water resources.

scholarly journals The Use of Remote Sensing and GIS to Study Land Use Changes in Barka Wilaya, Oman

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Eyad H Fadda ◽  
Fatemah Al Shebli ◽  
Ayshah Al Kabi
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fertile Land

Many studies house indicated the increase of the proportion of urban areas over the arable land in many provinces of the Sultanate of Oman. This came as a result of urban growth and development processes taking place since the era of the Renaissance which started in 1970. Consequently, spatial variation in land use is an important issue to be taken into consideration, because lands are being converted to be less productive, due to the lack of raw soil, vegetation, and water as a result of human exploitation of the limited resources in different ways, in addition to the natural factors of droughts and floods and all that will eventually lead to land degradation. Barka province (wilayat) in al Batinah Governorate is one of the provinces, which has been affected by land cover/land use changes due to several reasons. Therefore, this study will focus on the determination of land use changes, whether commercial or residential that have been occurred in the province, in addition to the loss of agricultural areas and fertile land during the period from 1987 to 2015. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) were utilized in order to delineate and to determine the cause of shrinking in the arable land and fertile land. Satellite images were used to detect the change in land use/land cover by applying selective digital image processing techniques such as supervised classification and change detection. Thematic maps were prepared using GIS software with attribute data about the land uses in the study area, which highlights and show the impact of urban growth on land degradation.

scholarly journals Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 565-579
Author(s):  
P. Ciaian
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Scenario Simulation ◽  
The Common ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.

scholarly journals Declines in an Augur Buzzard Buteo augur Population in a Region of Increasing Human Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J. Eichenwald ◽  
Arjun Amar ◽  
Peter Tyrrell ◽  
Evan R. Buechley ◽  
Munir Z. Virani
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Lake Naivasha ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Territory Occupancy

As with many areas in Africa, Kenya has witnessed rapid human development in recent decades, including an increase in urbanization and an intensification of agriculture. The impact of these land use changes on wildlife populations have, however, rarely been examined. The Augur Buzzard is a widespread raptor species, thought to adapt relatively well to human alterations of habitat. In this study, we explore trends in Augur Buzzard (Buteo augur) territory occupancy over nearly two decades around Lake Naivasha, Kenya, in relation to land-use changes, particularly expansion in human housing and flower farms. We hypothesized that these changes would cause population declines in this species within our study area. Using remote-sensed satellite imagery, we found that human development (agriculture and human settlement) increased from 9 to 24% of the study area from 1995 to 2014. We found a 47% decline in active territories over this same time period, representing an annualized decline of 3.1%. Based on the length of three generations this would qualify this species to be uplisted to at least Vulnerable in our study area, raising our concerns that the same pattern may be occurring across the species’ range. We then explored whether abandonment of individual territories was associated with either (i) the current amount or (ii) the change in human development within a range of buffer circles of varying radii (0.1–5.0 km). Contrary to our expectations, no associations were found between human development and territorial abandonment, and thus we could not attribute specific territorial abandonment to these broad scale anthropogenic land cover changes. We encourage further research to investigate whether territorial abandonment may be associated with either finer resolution (habitat specific) changes, or sources of direct mortality, for example human persecution or electrocutions. These factors might explain the decline in this population better than broader scale increases in anthropogenic land cover.

scholarly journals Integrating Remote Sensing and a Markov-FLUS Model to Simulate Future Land Use Changes in Hokkaido, Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 2621
Author(s):  
Zhanzhuo Chen ◽  
Min Huang ◽  
Daoye Zhu ◽  
Orhan Altan
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Land Resources ◽  
Forest Protection ◽  
Land Protection ◽  
The Past

As the second largest island in Japan, Hokkaido provides precious land resources for the Japanese people. Meanwhile, as the food base of Japan, the gradual decrease of the agricultural population and more intensive agricultural practices on Hokkaido have led its arable land use to change year by year, which has also caused changes to the whole land use pattern of the entire island of Hokkaido. To realize the sustainable use of land resources in Hokkaido, past and future changes in land use patterns must be investigated, and target-based land use planning suggestions should be given on this basis. This study uses remote sensing and GIS technology to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of land use in Hokkaido during the past two decades. The types of land use include cultivated land, forest, waterbody, construction, grassland, and others, by using the satellite images of the Landsat images in 2000, 2010, and 2019 to achieve this goal to make classification. In addition, this study used the coupled Markov-FLUS model to simulate and analyze the land use changes in three different scenarios in Hokkaido in the next 20 years. Scenario-based situational analysis shows that the cultivated land in Hokkaido will drop by about 25% in 2040 under the natural development scenario (ND), while the cultivated land area in Hokkaido will remain basically unchanged in cultivated land protection scenario (CP). In forest protection scenario (FP), the area of forest in Hokkaido will increase by 1580.8 km2. It is believed that the findings reveal that the forest land in Hokkaido has been well protected in the past and will be protected well in the next 20 years. However, in land use planning for future, Hokkaido government and enterprises should pay more attention to the protection of cultivated land.

scholarly journals A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 1: Pre-Processing of Scenario Based Flood Characteristics for the Current State of Land Use

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Frauke Kachholz ◽  
Jens Tränckner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

Land use changes influence the water balance and often increase surface runoff. The resulting impacts on river flow, water level, and flood should be identified beforehand in the phase of spatial planning. In two consecutive papers, we develop a model-based decision support system for quantifying the hydrological and stream hydraulic impacts of land use changes. Part 1 presents the semi-automatic set-up of physically based hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of geodata analysis for the current state. Appropriate hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments are derived by a transfer from a calibrated model. In the regarded lowland river basins, parameters of surface and groundwater inflow turned out to be particularly important. While the calibration delivers very good to good model results for flow (Evol =2.4%, R = 0.84, NSE = 0.84), the model performance is good to satisfactory (Evol = −9.6%, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.59) in a different river system parametrized with the transfer procedure. After transferring the concept to a larger area with various small rivers, the current state is analyzed by running simulations based on statistical rainfall scenarios. Results include watercourse section-specific capacities and excess volumes in case of flooding. The developed approach can relatively quickly generate physically reliable and spatially high-resolution results. Part 2 builds on the data generated in part 1 and presents the subsequent approach to assess hydrologic/hydrodynamic impacts of potential land use changes.

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