Interstate Conflict Management in South America: The Relevance of Overlapping Institutions

Author(s):  
Marcos Valle Machado da Silva
Author(s):  
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell ◽  
Patrick M. Regan

The issue of armed conflict management was first mentioned in the inaugural issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution in 1957, when Quincy Wright wrote that the resolution of international conflict can be facilitated by national government efforts “to prevent tensions for arising and aggravating disputes […] among nations. Such resolution can also proceed through the application of appropriate methods of negotiation, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement […] and the coordination of measures to prevent aggression.” However, there was remarkably little emphasis on studies of negotiation, mediation, or interstate bargaining before the mid-1970s. A more concerted focus on managing armed conflict began in the mid-1970s, and the 1990s and 2000s saw an explosion in the number of published quantitative studies on conflict management, driven in part by the significant growth in data collection projects on interstate conflict management. Over the past half-century, quantitative studies have identified the factors that promote the use and success of interstate conflict management. It should be noted that a lot of the usual suspect variables in the conflict literature, such as power parity, democracy, rivalry, and contiguity, appear in conflict management analyses as well. Yet the dialogue between these two literatures is often limited. On the other hand, conflict management courses typically organize themselves around the dependent variable, examining different forms of conflict management techniques (good offices, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, adjudication, etc.). Progress will be made on both fronts when we start thinking about these processes in a unified framework.


1990 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 31-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip A. Schrodt

The ID3 algorithm is an inductive artificial intelligence technique that generates classification trees. These trees are similar to those used in simple expert systems; with ID3 they are generated by machine rather than using human experts. This article applies a bootstrapped ID3 to the Butterworth data set on interstate conflict management. By generating a number of classification trees from randomly selected subsets of the complete data set, the variables that most effectively predict the outcome of the conflict management effort are identified, and the degree of unpredictability in the data is estimated from the accuracy of the classification tree in predicting cases not in the training set. The original set of 38 independent variables can be reduced to 5 or less with almost no loss of accuracy; classification trees using these variables have 95–100 percent accuracy when fitted to the entire data set and an average accuracy of 50–60 percent in predicting new cases in split-sample tests. Unlike many existing statistical techniques, the classification tree is a plausible model of human inductive knowledge representation since it is compatible with the cognitive constraints of the human brain.


Author(s):  
Muhammad Idrees ◽  
Manzoor Naazer ◽  
Ashfaq Rehman

The mechanism created by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) excludes the discussions on bilateral and contentious issues which is said to be the main hurdle in the SAARC to take off. Despite similarities in the South Asian member countries, e.g. cultural, linguistic, and historical, they have not yet been able to evolve cooperative environment and their relations are characterised by varying conflicts. Keeping with the background nominal progress that has been made by SAARC, it will be wise to review the inter-state conflicts which are halting the ways of the South Asian progress. The present study surveys the nature of interstate conflict among SAARC members and their impact on regional cooperation. It also explores various modes of conflict management and conflict resolution. It offers conflict management and multi-track diplomacy as keys to peace in the South Asian region and progress for SAARC.


2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 269-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanisha Bond ◽  
Faten Ghosn

This article seeks to explain the role and salience of culture in interstate conflict management efforts. Past studies of cultural similarity in conflict management involving third parties often focused on two-way cultural relationships: either examining cultural similarity between disputants or similarity between third parties and each of the disputants as individuals. However, we argue that this first wave of research should be augmented by a focus on triads. Our study asks the question: to what extent does cultural similarity among disputants and potential mediators predict the likelihood of a mediation offer? We test our hypotheses using data from the International Conflict Management Dataset between 1945 and 1995 and find that mediation offers are most likely to emerge when the triad is ethnically or religiously similar, while shared political culture is not a reliable predictor of mediation offers to disputing dyads.


2013 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch ◽  
Michael D Ward

Prediction is an important goal in the study of international conflict, but a large body of research has found that existing statistical models generally have disappointing predictive abilities. We show that most efforts build on models unlikely to be helpful for prediction. Many models essentially ignore the origins of conflict; studies look either at invariant structural features believed to affect the opportunities of conflict, or at factors that are believed to reduce the baseline risk of conflict, without attempting to identify the potential motivations and contentious issues over which conflicts typically arise. Researchers that have considered how contentious issues may motivate conflict and how these can be managed, using the Issues Correlates of War (ICOW) data, have not considered how these features may inform prediction. We assess the risk of dyadic interstate conflict based on the presence of specific contentious issues and conflict management events that may change the conflict potential of these contentious issues. We evaluate to what extent incorporating contentious issues and conflict management can help improve out-of-sample forecasting, as well as advance our understanding of conflict dynamics. Our results provide strong support for the idea that taking into account contentious issues can inform and improve out-of-sample forecasting.


Nordlit ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Ash

Conflict in the Arctic is nothing new, and Svalbard is a geographical confluence of factors that create the potential for inter-group violence. The purpose of this paper is to explore those factors, identifying approaches to the evaluation of their associated risk. The emphasis is on biomarine resources, which at present constitute the most likely focus for escalating disputes. Contributory factors, including the catalytic effects of climate change, will also be considered. Given the political progress that has been achieved recently, the most likely situation for an intense interstate conflict in the short term is one that spreads tothe Arctic, rather than one igniting within it. However, as the century progresses, dormant problems relating to the Svalbard archipelago will combine with environmental, economic and political trends to exacerbate conflict risk. Traditionally, armed conflict has been viewed as a phenomenon that cannot be predicted. This view is identified as dangerously misleading. Using a risk based approach and noting advances in analytical techniques, representative scenarios in which conflict may occur are examined and prospective methods of risk management identified.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam R. Bell

This paper examines how territorial claims between states condition the effect of power on interstate conflict. I argue that when the weaker state in a dyad controls a piece of contested territory, increases in power for the state that does not hold the territory lead to increases in the probability of conflict initiation. This has important implications for our understanding of the role that territorial claims play in conflict processes and attempts at conflict management, and provides support for the theoretical claim that the relationship between power and conflict is conditioned by the distribution of benefits.


2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-181
Author(s):  
Leon Monroe Miller

Purpose This paper aims to explain how peace research has influenced a re-conceptualization of the international relations (IR) notion of security and conflict, the nature of the global arena, how to effectively negotiate conflict resolution and strategies for peacebuilding. The paper argues that – although peace research had contributed to reducing the threat of interstate conflict – IR scholars have failed to recognize the need for a more inclusive theoretical strategy for dealing with the new challenge imposed by intrastate conflict. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses Cyprus as a case to compare the conflict management strategies of the liberal peace agenda and the integrative, multi-level, multi-dimensional approach to peacebuilding that is proposed by peace research. The Cyprus case is also used as an example of how the alternative approach to participatory political communication has moved the Cyprus situation off deadlock and in the direction of more promising outcomes. Findings The research reveals that although the liberal peace agenda (i.e. the state-centric and established diplomatic approach to conflict management) is effective in getting the two sides of the conflict to the negotiating table, it is inadequate in addressing the underlying cause of conflict; thus, in many instances, there is a reoccurrence of conflict and violence. Research limitations/implications The paper is limited in its ability to place peace research within the context of theoretical developments in the field of IR (e.g. this is even more-so true in regard to researching international politics). Although peace research has made enormous contributions in reducing the threat of interstate conflict (e.g. it is acknowledged that peace research contributed to ending the Cold War, thus bringing about new perspectives on how the global arena is defined, the nature of conflict and the role of communicative action in global relations), there has not been a corresponding development in the theory and practice of IR. Practical implications The paper explains how recent developments in communication theory and information communication technology have altered the nature of the global arena and the factors impacting global social movements. Thus, the paper indicates factors that are vital to cross-border interactions, cross-border social movements and alternative approaches to interstate social-political activities that deserve further research. Social implications The research analyzes the contribution to participatory political communication in conflict management, reconciliation and peacebuilding processes. The paper also highlights the role of alternative media as a component of the infrastructure for peace (e.g. in the Cyprus context, it provides a forum in which agents from an otherwise divided community can participate in establishing shared values and common objectives). Originality/value Cyprus represents one of the longest running conflicts and, in addition, one of the longest running peacekeeping missions of the UN. This paper explains how unique features of the peace research approach to peacebuilding contributes to producing more positive results in what has heretofore been a deadlock in the divided community of Cyprus. Thus, this paper provides an indication of how the lessons learned by peace researchers in the Cyprus micro context contribute to addressing macro-level IR challenges (e.g. north-south and east-west challenges that occur because of outlooks in the proverbial other).


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra
Keyword(s):  

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