Overcoming the Other America: José Martí's Immanent Critique of the Unionist Paradigm

This article offers a new interpretation of the Cuban intellectual José Martí's international political thought. It argues that Martí's analysis of early US imperialism and call for Spanish American unity are best understood as an immanent critique of the “unionist paradigm,” a tradition of international political thought that originated in the American independence movements. Martí recognized the impediments that racism had placed in the way of both US and Spanish American efforts to stabilize the hemisphere's republics by uniting them under regional institutions. He argued that, in his own time, Anglo-Saxon supremacism had deprived US-led Pan-Americanism of all legitimacy, causing a crisis of international political order in the Americas. In the context of this crisis, he developed a revised, antiracist unionism that, he argued, would free Spanish America's republics from imperial aggression and interstate conflicts, making the region a global model of stable and inclusive self-rule.

Appraisal of Order in ASEAN and SAARC: A Comparative Inquiry

The paper examines how ASEAN has emerged as a face of Southeast Asia: from anarchy to order, to promote stability, strengthen sovereignty, reduce the role of great powers and build the harmony of interests among the states, while SAARC remained less effective in maintaining Order in South Asia. While combating the challenges of communism and regional instability, ASEAN’s has minimized the involvement of non-state actors while keeping the state’s sovereignty at the forefront. On the other hand, SAARC remained less influential in maintaining Order under common norms, values and interests due to a lack of the conflict management mechanism and inbuilt hostility between India and Pakistan. To understand the reason for the effectiveness of ASEAN Vis-à-vis SAARC, the conceptual framework of Order proposed by Hedley Bull provides a befitting context to examine both regional platforms. Both ASEAN and SAARC had the aim to solve interstate conflicts, but SAARC turned out to be ineffective. Hence, a comparative analysis critically evaluates how and why ASEAN has performed better than SAARC in conflict management. Eventually, the paper discusses the possible changes that SAARC can make to maintain Order in South Asia.

INTENSITY OF HYBRID THREATS TO NATIONAL ECONOMIES

Background. In the context of growing tendencies to hybridize interstate conflicts, hybrid threats become especially important, which, in contrast to direct military threats, are difficult to identify and have their own logic of emergence and escalation. The hidden nature of hybrid aggression and the focus on the most vulnerable parties necessitate a proactive response of the object state based on a thorough assessment of the potential impact of hybrid confrontation on the development of the national economy. The aim of the article isto substantiate the criteria for the intensity of the impact of hybrid threats on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression. Materials and methods. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to determine the relationship of basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of the intensity of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy; method of graphical modeling – to visualize the dynamics of escalation of the destructive effects of hybrid threats. The research was performed on the basisof scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results. It is substantiated that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of their acquisition of signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, mostly of a non-military nature. It is proved that the high destructive potential of hybrid threats requires the definition of criteria for the intensity of their impact on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression. The author's interpretation of the relationship between the basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes, which are arranged by the level of escalation in the following order: potential danger, potential threat, real threat, risk situation, real danger. Based on the definition of the specifics of hybrid threats, their key characteristics are systematized and the destructive impact on the national economy is structured. It is substantiated that the generalizing characteristics of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy should be recognized as the level of its intensity, which is determined by the probability of the threat realization and potential losses. It is proved that the escalation of hybrid threats to economically weak and vulnerable states to the level of real danger is almost inevitable if their interests conflict with the ambitions of leading geopolitical actors. Conclusion. Interval assessment of the criteria for the intensity of hybrid threats allows structuring their destructive impact on the national economy from the minimum (potential danger) to the maximum (real danger) level of escalation. The structuring of the destructive impact of hybrid threats creates a basis for assessing the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression depending on the level of their intensity and overcoming the negative consequences for the economy of the state-object of hybrid aggression.

The Global Economic Impact of Terrorism

In general, when analyzing the costs of armed conflict, the literature most often relates to civil wars or interstate conflicts. The moment of September 11, 2001 marked the beginning of a new concern in the economy, namely the economic cost of terrorism. Terrorism is a form of conflict in which acts of violence are directed at non-combatants or civilians who are usually unrelated to the political target of the group that committed it. This article analyzes existing data on the costs of terrorist acts that are committed by non-state parties or subnational groups. In this article, we will also look at the impact that terrorism has on the world economy (including both developed and underdeveloped states). We will find that although it has a significant impact on the global economy, the most devastating effects of violence are felt by underdeveloped economies whose poverty and inequality do not allow for a rapid and sustained response to terrorism.

MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS OF HYBRID THREATS*

The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.

The MID5 Dataset, 2011–2014: Procedures, coding rules, and description

This article introduces the latest iteration of the most widely used dataset on interstate conflicts, the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) 5 dataset. We begin by outlining the data collection process used in the MID5 project. Next, we discuss some of the most challenging cases that we coded and some updates to the coding manual that resulted. Finally, we provide descriptive statistics for the new years of the MID data.

Climate bones of contention: How climate variability influences territorial, maritime, and river interstate conflicts

Many scholars examine the relationship between climate variability and intrastate conflict onset. While empirical findings in this literature are mixed, we know less about how climate changes increase the risks for conflicts between countries. This article studies climate variability using the issue approach to world politics. We examine whether climate variability influences the onset and militarization of interstate diplomatic conflicts and whether these effects are similar across issues that involve sovereignty claims for land (territory) or water (maritime, river). We focus on two theoretical mechanisms: scarcity ( abundance) and uncertainty. We measure these concepts empirically through climate deviation (e.g. droughts/floods, heat waves/cold spells) and climate volatility (greater short-term variance in precipitation/temperature). Analyses of issue claims in the Western Hemisphere and Europe (1901–2001) show that greater deviations and volatility in climate conditions increase risks for new diplomatic conflicts and militarization of ongoing issues and that climate change acts as a trigger for revisionist states.

THE BALKANS / SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE: THE REGION OF MYSTERY AND MYSTERIES OF THE REGION

Based on the study of various types of sources and analysis of Russian and foreign literature, the author conceptually substantiates an approach to the study of the Balkan region / South-Eastern Europe. One of the main problems considered in the article is the change in the course of the history of the 19 th-21 st centuries the ratio of the concepts of «Balkans/South-Eastern Europe», «Eastern Europe», «Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe», «Western Balkans», «Western Balkan countries» and «European Western Balkans». The author characterizes various historical stages of the development of the region in the context of world wars and revolutions of the 20 th century, shows the specifics of political and ethnic processes, the internal political situation in each country and relations between the states of the region, the correlation between the processes of regionalization and globalization. With the disappearance of Eastern Europe in the form in which it existed in 1949-1991, after the anti-communist social and national revolutions in the former socialist countries of Europe in 1989-1992, an integral part of the process of national self-determination was the change in the regional self-identification of each people, society and state. If in the 2000 s, positive dynamics prevailed both in terms of internal political development, intraregional and global international relations, then in the 2010 s, the forward movement has stalled in terms of both the internal economic, social and political development of the states of the region, and the settlement of interethnic and interstate conflicts in the region against the background of a general aggravation of international relations. The article examines the role of regional identification and self-identification as elements of national self-awareness. The author also characterizes the challenges facing the countries of the region in the short, medium and long terms and indicates that the choice of the Balkans / South-Eastern Europe, despite the specificity caused by their historical fate, and all the difficulties of development and conflicts, has already been made: the Balkans (like Russia as well) is an integral part of Europe.