Near-repeat shootings in contemporary Sweden 2011 to 2015

In this paper tools, organization and tactics of crime mapping are analyzed. The directions of application of mapping for maintenance of public safety and order, in criminal intelligence process, etc. are outlined. The domestic experience of mapping is briefly analyzed. The main goals that are achieved with the use of mapping are defined. Features of visualization of criminogenic cells are revealed. Pin mapping features (when points which symbolize a certain event are placed on the map on the corresponding coordinates) are outlined. Kernel density mapping is described, which makes it much easier to detect criminogenic foci, as hot-spot maps clearly reflect the concentration of certain events in the region. A method of mapping using proportional symbol mapping is disclosed when the increase in the size of the symbol denoting a point on the map is proportional to the increase in the number of events or other parameters at these coordinates. The building of geographical profiles of criminals is briefly described. The theoretical basis of mapping for the prediction of crimes is outlined. Prediction strategies based on equations and machine calculations and actuarial strategies based on expertise and clinical strategy are analyzed. Considerations are given to the appropriateness of applying appropriate strategies in different countries. The phenomenon of near repeat patterns is studied. Some software solutions for the implementation of the tasks of mapping criminal manifestations and the use of artificial intelligence systems for this purpose are described. Examples are given. It is noted that the use of cartography to prevent and predict crimes in Ukraine is in its infancy. Some solutions are proposed that could improve the situation in the field of crime mapping in Ukraine.

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The Impact of “Strike Hard” on Repeat and Near-Repeat Residential Burglary in Beijing

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi9030150 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 150 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Peng Chen ◽

Justin Kurland

Keyword(s):

Law Enforcement ◽

New Technique ◽

Residential Burglary ◽

Spatiotemporal Clustering ◽

A New Technique ◽

Repeat Burglary ◽

Near Repeat ◽

The Impact ◽

Repeat Pattern ◽

Nominal Evidence

“Strike Hard” is an enhanced law-enforcement strategy in China that aims to suppress crime, but measurement of the crime-reducing effect and potential changes in the spatiotemporal concentration of crime associated with “Strike Hard” remain unknown. This paper seeks to examine the impact, if any, of “Strike Hard” on the spatiotemporal clustering of burglary incidents. Two and half years of residential burglary incidents from Chaoyang, Beijing are used to examine repeat and near-repeat burglary incidents before, during, and after the “Strike Hard” intervention and a new technique that enables the comparison of repeat and near repeat patterns across different temporal periods is introduced to achieve this. The results demonstrate the intervention disrupted the repeat pattern during the “Strike Hard” period reducing the observed ratio of single-day repeat burglaries by 155%; however, these same single-day repeat burglary events increased by 41% after the cessation of the intervention. Findings with respect to near repeats are less remarkable with nominal evidence to support that the intervention produced a significant decrease, but coupled with other results, suggest that spatiotemporal displacement may have been an undesired by-product of “Strike Hard”. This study from a non-Western setting provides further evidence of the generalizability of findings related to repeat and near repeat patterns of burglary and further highlights the limited preventative effect that the “Strike Hard” enhanced law enforcement campaign had on burglary.

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Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1904418116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 116 (42) ◽

pp. 20898-20903 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yao-Li Chuang ◽

Noam Ben-Asher ◽

Maria R. D’Orsogna

Keyword(s):

Policy Making ◽

Spillover Effects ◽

Terrorist Attacks ◽

Al Qaeda ◽

Islamic State ◽

Collaborative Relationship ◽

Regional Dynamics ◽

Global Terrorism ◽

Near Repeat ◽

Global Terrorism Database

We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via k-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20 km and on average 4 (al-Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral, or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data are available. Government intervention and spillover effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy making and intervention design.

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Arson in an urban setting: a multi-event near repeat chain analysis in Flint, Michigan

Security Journal ◽

10.1057/s41284-018-0155-0 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 32 (3) ◽

pp. 179-197 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Brandon Turchan ◽

Jonathan A. Grubb ◽

Jesenia M. Pizarro ◽

Edmund F. McGarrell

Keyword(s):

Urban Setting ◽

Chain Analysis ◽

Near Repeat

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The Relationship between Near-Repeat Street Robbery and the Environment: Evidence from Malmö, Sweden

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi9040188 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 188

Author(s):

Markus Rasmusson ◽

Marco Helbich

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Socioeconomic Indicators ◽

Law Enforcement Agencies ◽

Environmental Characteristics ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Using Data ◽

Near Repeat ◽

The Relationship ◽

Crime Event

Near-repeat crime refers to a pattern whereby one crime event is soon followed by a similar crime event at a nearby location. Existing research on near-repeat crime patterns is inconclusive about where near-repeat patterns emerge and which physical and social factors influence them. The present research addressed this gap by examining the relationship between initiator events (i.e., the first event in a near-repeat pattern) and environmental characteristics to estimate where near-repeat patterns are most likely to emerge. A two-step analysis was undertaken using data on street robberies reported in Malmö, Sweden, for the years 2006–15. After determining near-repeat patterns, we assessed the correlations between initiator events and criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators using a negative binomial regression at a street segment level. Our results show that both criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators have a significant influence on the spatial variation of initiator events, suggesting that environmental characteristics can be used to explain the emergence of near-repeat patterns. Law enforcement agencies can utilize the findings in efforts to prevent further street robberies from occurring.

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