Preventing near-repeat residential burglary through cocooning: post hoc evaluation of a targeted police-led pilot intervention

“Strike Hard” is an enhanced law-enforcement strategy in China that aims to suppress crime, but measurement of the crime-reducing effect and potential changes in the spatiotemporal concentration of crime associated with “Strike Hard” remain unknown. This paper seeks to examine the impact, if any, of “Strike Hard” on the spatiotemporal clustering of burglary incidents. Two and half years of residential burglary incidents from Chaoyang, Beijing are used to examine repeat and near-repeat burglary incidents before, during, and after the “Strike Hard” intervention and a new technique that enables the comparison of repeat and near repeat patterns across different temporal periods is introduced to achieve this. The results demonstrate the intervention disrupted the repeat pattern during the “Strike Hard” period reducing the observed ratio of single-day repeat burglaries by 155%; however, these same single-day repeat burglary events increased by 41% after the cessation of the intervention. Findings with respect to near repeats are less remarkable with nominal evidence to support that the intervention produced a significant decrease, but coupled with other results, suggest that spatiotemporal displacement may have been an undesired by-product of “Strike Hard”. This study from a non-Western setting provides further evidence of the generalizability of findings related to repeat and near repeat patterns of burglary and further highlights the limited preventative effect that the “Strike Hard” enhanced law enforcement campaign had on burglary.

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Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency ◽

10.1177/0022427810384139 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 48 (1) ◽

pp. 83-109 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Ashley B. Pitcher ◽

Shane D. Johnson

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Mathematical Models ◽

Qualitative Agreement ◽

The Other ◽

Residential Burglary ◽

Foraging Activity ◽

Good Qualitative Agreement ◽

Agent Based ◽

Stable Variation ◽

Near Repeat

Research concerned with burglary indicates that it is clustered not only at places but also in time. Some homes are victimized repeatedly, and the risk to neighbors of victimized homes is temporarily elevated. The latter type of burglary is referred to as a near repeat. Two theories have been proposed to explain observed patterns. The boost hypothesis states that risk is elevated following an event reflecting offender foraging activity. The flag hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests that time-stable variation in risk provides an explanation where data for populations with different risks are analyzed in the aggregate. To examine this, the authors specify a series of discrete mathematical models of urban residential burglary and examine their outcomes using stochastic agent-based simulations. Results suggest that variation in risk alone cannot explain patterns of exact and near repeats, but that models which also include a boost component show good qualitative agreement with published findings.

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Predicting Initiator and Near Repeat Events in Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Residential Burglary and Motor Vehicle Theft

Justice Quarterly ◽

10.1080/07418825.2017.1342854 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 35 (5) ◽

pp. 842-870 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Eric L. Piza ◽

Jeremy G. Carter

Keyword(s):

Motor Vehicle ◽

Residential Burglary ◽

Motor Vehicle Theft ◽

Vehicle Theft ◽

Crime Patterns ◽

Repeat Events ◽

Near Repeat

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A Pilot Intervention Designed to Address Behavioral Factors That Place Overweight/Obese Young Children at Risk for Later-Life Obesity

Western Journal of Nursing Research ◽

10.1177/0193945917708316 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 39 (8) ◽

pp. 1192-1212 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Leigh Small ◽

Leroy Thacker ◽

Heather Aldrich ◽

Darya Bonds-McClain ◽

Bernadette Melnyk

Keyword(s):

Intervention Program ◽

Externalizing Behaviors ◽

Controlled Trial ◽

Intervention Group ◽

Later Life ◽

Child Behaviors ◽

Post Intervention ◽

Child Externalizing Behaviors ◽

Pilot Intervention ◽

Post Hoc

The purpose of this pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) was to intervene with parents of overweight/obese 4- to 8-year-old children to improve child internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Parent–child dyads ( N = 60) were randomly assigned to treatment or comparison conditions. Parents attended four intervention sessions at their child’s primary health care office over 3 months. Child behaviors were assessed at 0, 3, 6, and 12 months post intervention. Parental beliefs in their skills/abilities increased in the experimental group parents, but there was no statistical difference between groups at any time. Child externalizing behaviors significantly decreased from baseline to postintervention for both groups ( F = 3.26, p = .020). Post hoc model testing suggests that this change was more pronounced in the intervention group ( F = 0.56, p = .692). Child somatic symptoms significantly decreased over time ( F = 4.55, p = .004), and there were group differences in child depressive behaviors ( F = 6.19, p = .020). These findings suggest that a parent-focused intervention program demonstrated positive preliminary effects on children’s behaviors.

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Predicting Initiator and Near Repeat Events in Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Residential Burglary and Motor Vehicle Theft

10.21428/cb6ab371.e1ec4277 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Eric Piza ◽

Jeremy Carter

Keyword(s):

Motor Vehicle ◽

Residential Burglary ◽

Motor Vehicle Theft ◽

Vehicle Theft ◽

Crime Patterns ◽

Repeat Events ◽

Near Repeat

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Using citizen notification to interrupt near-repeat residential burglary patterns: the micro-level near-repeat experiment

Journal of Experimental Criminology ◽

10.1007/s11292-018-09350-1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 115-149 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Elizabeth Groff ◽

Travis Taniguchi

Keyword(s):

Residential Burglary ◽

Micro Level ◽

Near Repeat

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Enhancing Risk Detection Among Homeless Youth: A Randomized Clinical Trial of a Promising Pilot Intervention

Journal of Interpersonal Violence ◽

10.1177/0886260516633208 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 33 (19) ◽

pp. 2945-2967 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Kimberly A. Bender ◽

Anne DePrince ◽

Stephanie Begun ◽

Jessica Hathaway ◽

Badiah Haffejee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Significant Interaction ◽

Homeless Youth ◽

Environmental Cues ◽

Pilot Test ◽

Risk Detection ◽

Subgroup Analyses ◽

Indirect Victimization ◽

Pilot Intervention ◽

Post Hoc ◽

To Receive

Homeless youth frequently experience victimization, and youth with histories of trauma often fail to detect danger risks, making them vulnerable to subsequent victimization. The current study describes a pilot test of a skills-based intervention designed to improve risk detection among homeless youth through focusing attention to internal, interpersonal, and environmental cues. Youth aged 18 to 21 years ( N = 74) were recruited from a shelter and randomly assigned to receive usual case management services or usual services plus a 3-day manualized risk detection intervention. Pretest and posttest interviews assessed youths’ risk detection abilities through vignettes describing risky situations and asking youth to identify risk cues present. Separate 2 (intervention vs. control) × 2 (pretest vs. posttest) mixed ANOVAs found significant interaction effects, as intervention youth significantly improved in overall risk detection compared with control youth. Post hoc subgroup analyses found the intervention had a greater effect for youth without previous experiences of indirect victimization than those with previous indirect victimization experiences.

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The Link Between Verbal Short-Term Memory and Anomia Treatment Gains

American Journal of Speech-Language Pathology ◽

10.1044/2019_ajslp-18-0176 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 28 (3) ◽

pp. 1039-1052

Author(s):

Reva M. Zimmerman ◽

JoAnn P. Silkes ◽

Diane L. Kendall ◽

Irene Minkina

Keyword(s):

Short Term Memory ◽

Controlled Trial ◽

Treatment Success ◽

Linear Regression Models ◽

Language Performance ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Treatment Gains ◽

Post Hoc

Purpose A significant relationship between verbal short-term memory (STM) and language performance in people with aphasia has been found across studies. However, very few studies have examined the predictive value of verbal STM in treatment outcomes. This study aims to determine if verbal STM can be used as a predictor of treatment success. Method Retrospective data from 25 people with aphasia in a larger randomized controlled trial of phonomotor treatment were analyzed. Digit and word spans from immediately pretreatment were run in multiple linear regression models to determine whether they predict magnitude of change from pre- to posttreatment and follow-up naming accuracy. Pretreatment, immediately posttreatment, and 3 months posttreatment digit and word span scores were compared to determine if they changed following a novel treatment approach. Results Verbal STM, as measured by digit and word spans, did not predict magnitude of change in naming accuracy from pre- to posttreatment nor from pretreatment to 3 months posttreatment. Furthermore, digit and word spans did not change from pre- to posttreatment or from pretreatment to 3 months posttreatment in the overall analysis. A post hoc analysis revealed that only the less impaired group showed significant changes in word span scores from pretreatment to 3 months posttreatment. Discussion The results suggest that digit and word spans do not predict treatment gains. In a less severe subsample of participants, digit and word span scores can change following phonomotor treatment; however, the overall results suggest that span scores may not change significantly. The implications of these findings are discussed within the broader purview of theoretical and empirical associations between aphasic language and verbal STM processing.

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