Predicting the Impact of Country-Related Risks on Cost Overrun for Overseas Infrastructure Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 147 (2) ◽  
pp. 04020166
Author(s):  
Fengfeng Zhu ◽  
Hao Hu ◽  
Feng Xu ◽  
Ning Tang
2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (7A) ◽  
pp. 1069-1076
Author(s):  
Layth T. Ali ◽  
Raid S. Abid Ali ◽  
Zeyad S. M. Khaled

Cost overrun in construction projects is a common phenomenon in Iraq. This might occur due to diversity of factors. This study aims to identify the factors influencing construction projects cost that are potentially controllable by main contractors. A field study through a questionnaire survey was directed to a sample of related Iraqi professional engineers from general contracting companies at both public and private sectors. Their opinions on the impact and frequency of each factor were investigated. The questionnaire offered (59) factors classified in (8) categories namely; legislations, financial and economic, design, contractual, site management, material, labor and equipment. The factors were ranked according to the highest Relative Importance Index (RII). The study revealed (10) major factors that are potentially controllable by main contractors namely; labor productivity, sub-contractors and suppliers performance, equipment productivity, site organization and distribution of equipment, experience and training of project managers, scheduling and control techniques, planning for materials supply, planning for equipment supply, materials delivery and planning for skilled labor recruitment. Recommendations to aid contractors and owners in early identification of these factors are also included in this study.


2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1029-1036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Pham ◽  
Truong-Van Luu ◽  
Soo-Yong Kim ◽  
Duc-Thinh Vien

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui ◽  
Peter E. D. Love ◽  
Simon D. Smith ◽  
Fran Ackermann

Infrastructure cost overruns receive a significant amount of attention in the academic literature as well as the popular press. The methodological weaknesses in the dominant approaches adopted to explain cost overrun causation on infrastructure projects are explored in this article. A considerable amount of cost overrun research is superficial, replicative, and thus has stagnated the development of a robust theory to mitigate and contain the problem. Future research should move from single-cause identification and the traditional net-effect correlational analysis to a search for causal recipes through systems thinking and retrospective sensemaking to address the high-level interactions between multiple factors.


Author(s):  
Enrique Dussel Peters

The socioeconomic and political relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) with China has become increasingly significant for both since the beginning of the 21st century. This article analyzes proposals by the United States and China in their bilateral relationship and the political effects of their increasing tensions on LAC. Consistent with the proposed framework of analysis of the socioeconomic LAC–China relationship—at least in terms of trade, financing, overseas foreign direct investments, and infrastructure projects—the article examines in detail these conditions, as well as providing an in-depth example of trade. The final part of the article discusses the important potential and challenges of China for LAC’s development and concludes that so far, and based on the in-depth analysis of the trade relationship, the LAC–China relation is closer to a core-periphery than to a South–South or win–win strategy. The document proposes to understand that the political economy within the United States, particularly of its private sector, have shifted substantially against China. In addition, the structure for analysis of the LAC-China relationship in the 21st century with a concrete structure of analysis in terns of trade, financing, Chinese overseas foreign direct investments (OFDI) and infrastructure projects. In light of current discussions, the analysis suggests for the inclusion of a group of new concepts –such as the “the new triangular relationships” and the “globalization process with Chinese characteristics” with a group of effects in LAC. The impact of the increasing China-United States tensions, from this perspective, generates massive challenges in LAC, independently of their diplomatic relationships to China.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertram I. Steininger ◽  
Martin Groth ◽  
Brigitte L. Weber

PurposeWe investigate causes for the cost overrun and delay of the railway project Stuttgart 21. Besides, we try to forecast the actual costs and completion date at an early stage.Design/methodology/approachThe results of exploratory research show the causes for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21; we compare our findings with other railway projects. To estimate the costs at an early stage, the reference class forecasting (RCF) model is applied; to estimate the time, we apply an OLS regression.FindingsWe find that the following causes are relevant for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21: scope changes, geological conditions, high risk-taking propensity, extended implementation, price overshoot, conflict of interests and lack of citizens' participation. The current estimated costs are within our 95% confidence interval based on RCF; our time forecast underestimates or substantially overestimates the duration actually required.Research limitations/implicationsA limitation of our approach is the low number of comparable projects which are available.Practical implicationsThe use of hyperbolic function or stepwise exponential discount function can help to give a clearer picture of the costs and benefits. The straightforward use of the RFC for costs and OLS for time should motivate more decision-makers to estimate the actual costs and time which are necessary in the light of the rising demand for democratic participation amongst citizens.Social implicationsMore realistic estimates can help to reduce the significant distortion at the beginning of infrastructure projects.Originality/valueWe are among the first who use the RCF to estimate the costs in Germany. Furthermore, the hyperbolic discounting function is added as a further theoretical explanation for cost underestimation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 5506
Author(s):  
Rodrigo F. Herrera ◽  
Omar Sánchez ◽  
Karen Castañeda ◽  
Hernán Porras

Road infrastructure projects are essential for a country’s economic and social development. Due to the magnitude, the projects are associated with considerable economic investments that in the case of failure can seriously affect regions’ economies. Despite the importance, roads from different countries are affected by cost overruns, hence, it is essential to identify and analyze the causative factors to focus the search for mitigation solutions. There are several studies focused on the cost factors identification, however, studies are lacking that synthesize and analyze the frequency and importance with which the factors have been reported to obtain a phenomenon overview. Therefore, this paper focuses on analyzing the frequency and importance with which cost overrun factors are reported in road projects. The research method consisted of a systematic review compound of five principal stages: (1) question formulation; (2) searching of relevant documents; (3) document selection; (4) evidence collection, analysis and synthesis; and (5) results’ report. Thirty-eight cost overrun factors were identified and classified into 14 categories. According to the Influence Index, the five most important and frequent cost overrun factors were: (1) failures in design, (2) price variation of materials, (3) inadequate project planning, (4) project scope changes, and (5) design changes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Chrysothemis Paraskevopoulou ◽  
Georgios Boutsis

Tunnelling projects seldom meet the initial budget requirements. Commonly, these types of projects suffer from cost overruns, which subsequently lead to project delivery delays mainly due to unsuccessful ground investigation as specified in the literature. The presented work scrutinises the effect of ground investigation in cost overruns. More specifically, various cost figures (total cost, construction cost, tunnel cost) are analysed for two case studies i) the Channel tunnel in the UK and ii) the Olmos Tunnel in Peru. Clayton’s relation between ground investigation and the construction cost is utilised and further investigated. In the Channel tunnel, the main problems faced led to a cost overrun of 78% for the total cost, 66% for the construction cost and 77% for the tunnelling cost. In the Olmos tunnel, two main geological scenarios are analysed and the construction cost overrun is calculated at 9.6% and 6.7%. Drawing on the conclusions, this research work proves that ground investigation can be one of the major factors influencing the tunnel cost.


2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Paraskevadakis ◽  
Alan Bury ◽  
Jin Wang ◽  
Jun Ren ◽  
Stephen Bonsall ◽  
...  

Abstract In the North West of England the issue of a perceived infrastructure gap is of increasing concern. Investment needs to be made to improve the transport infrastructure of the region if it is to be expected to promote the development of its own regional logistics gateway. Funding tools have been set up to address the challenges arising from the imbalance in infrastructure development that exists between regions in the north of the United Kingdom and those in the south. For regions with well developed economies the outlook is promising as the availability of modern transport infrastructure looks set to improve. However, some sources believe that the development of new transport infrastructure will have a negative impact upon sustainable development. It is expected that this will occur in a range of both direct and indirect ways. As a result, it is critical that planning for the creation of new intermodal transport infrastructure, or the upgrading of that which already exists, takes into account the impact that these developments will have on the sustainable development of the host region. A scenario based development methodology is proposed in this paper. It was developed to provide a way to identify potential scenarios that may arise within a given region as a result of transport infrastructure projects. To create significant scenarios the methodology is dependent on the availability of a sufficient quantity of quality data. For this paper that data was collected through a focus group composed of stakeholders from the region in question. This was further supported by the performance of an impact survey using the same group of stakeholders.


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