Methods and Models for Electric Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review

Electric load forecasting (ELF) is a vital process in the planning of the electricity industry and plays a crucial role in electric capacity scheduling and power systems management and, therefore, it has attracted increasing academic interest. Hence, the accuracy of electric load forecasting has great importance for energy generating capacity scheduling and power system management. This paper presents a review of forecasting methods and models for electricity load. About 45 academic papers have been used for the comparison based on specified criteria such as time frame, inputs, outputs, the scale of the project, and value. The review reveals that despite the relative simplicity of all reviewed models, the regression analysis is still widely used and efficient for long-term forecasting. As for short-term predictions, machine learning or artificial intelligence-based models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Fuzzy logic are favored.

Problems Affecting the Accessibility of Physically-Challenged Individuals to Intermediate Public Transport Services in Oyo State, Nigeria

The greatest challenge of physically-challenged individuals is mobility, thereby making access to public transportation essential to independent living for these individuals. The study was conducted in Oyo State. Multistage sampling method comprising purposive and simple random sampling was used to select a sample size of 226 students from three special education centres in the state. Findings revealed that factors such as operators’ impatience/discrimination, waiting time and lack of assistance were major problems that affects accessibility to IPTs. Furthermore, results showed that difficulties experienced by the physically-challenged individuals differ significantly by the nature of disability as evidenced by a chi-square value of 37.218, p<0.05. It was therefore recommended that government should listen more to these transport disadvantaged people living with disabilities and integrate their concerns/suggestions in the design, implementation and monitoring of transport infrastructure and services as well as providing sustainable transport means to their transport challenges.

Evaluation of Key Performance Indicators of Logistics Firms

Key Performance Indicators (KPI) has been outlined for implementing total quality management (TQM) across logistics sector. This study constituted on the quality values of logistics firms in the logistics sector, which is examined with key performance indicators through the integrated method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SMART Goal Setting. The calculations were performed for logistics firms. The method used in this study is the integrated method of the AHP Method and SMART Goal Setting. The results highlight the most mentioned key performance indicators in the literature in a prioritized version also during the prioritizing process via AHP Method, the SMART Goal Setting approach also is applied.

Analysing picking errors in vision picking systems

Vision picking empowers users with access to real-time digital order information, while freeing them from handheld radio frequency devices. The smart glasses, as an example of vision picking enabler, provide visual and voice cues to guide order pickers. The glasses mostly also have installed navigation features that can sense the order picker’s position in the warehouse. This paper explores picking errors in vision systems with literature review and experimental work in laboratory environment. The results show the effectiveness of applying vision picking systems for the purposes of active error prevention, when they are compared to established methods, such as paper-picking and using cart mounted displays. A serious competitor to vision picking systems are pick-to-light systems.The strong advantage of vision picking system is that most of the errors are detected early in the process and not at the customer’s site. The cost of fixing the error is thus minimal. Most errors consequently directly influence order picker’s productivity in negative sense. Nonetheless, the distinctive feature of the system is extremely efficient error detection.

Multicriteria Evaluation of Intermodal (Rail/Road) Freight Transport Corridors

This paper deals with the multi-criteria evaluation of the intermodal (rail/road) freight corridors as competing transport alternatives. For such a purpose, the methodology has been developed consisting of two main components; i) the analytical models for estimating the indicators and measures of the corridors’ physical/spatial or infrastructural, technical/technological, operational, economic, social, and environmental performance; and ii) the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) method using the above-mentioned indicators and measures of performance as the evaluation attributes/criteria in ranking and identifying the preferred among the several mutually competing freight transport alternative corridors.The proposed methodology has been applied to two Trans-European intermodal rail/road freight transport corridors. As such, it has shown to be of use, in addition to the researchers, also to the other potential DMs (Decision Maker(s)). These could be, for example, the freight shippers/receivers as the users of the already existing intermodal (rail/road) transport services, the transport and intermodal terminal operators and infrastructure providers, and the business and policy makers facing with the problems of allocating the usually limited investments in the social-economic feasible way to the corresponding infrastructure at the local, regional, national, and international scale.

Intra-City Mobility and Characterization in a Fast-growing City of Lagos, Nigeria

Effective urban transportation no doubt serves as engine room and catalyst for driving national economic development. Significantly, the purpose of urban transport is to provide both passenger and freight mobility over specific parts of urban areas including cities, and its efficiency is characterized upon transporting effectively and achieving economies of scale. Hence, this study examined intra-city mobility and characterization in Lagos, Nigeria. The data was sourced from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data detailed the use of two sets of questionnaires administered to commuters and motorists. 182 copies of questionnaire were randomly administered to commuters, while 60 units of the questionnaire were purposively and conveniently administered to motorists. Descriptive and inferential techniques were used for data analysis. Major findings revealed obvious variations in socio-economic parameters of intra-city trip makers and factors influencing trip making. It was observed that journey to work, school, shopping cum business constituted the major trips characterizing in Lagos. Findings also revealed that high patronage priority was given to most used and preferred means due to vehicle travel speed, trip purpose, and availability than safety and comfortability of modal choice. Regression analysis result revealed that commuters’ modal choice and patronage is statistically influenced by operational attributes of mode (e.g. transit time, delay duration, safety, vehicle condition and transit fare etc.) at Sig. p=0.000 and F14165 15.667 which is greater than table value at 5% significant level. The study recommended among others the formulation and implementation of effective policy for urban transport activities; standardization of service operations and expansion of infrastructural facilities including the last-mile in the city.

Developing an Integrated Framework for Supplier Evaluation based on Relevant Attributes and Performance Measures

Supplier evaluation and selection is essential to any organization, and planning an effective and comprehensive approach to that end seems inevitable. Meanwhile, determining the requisite criteria for evaluating and selecting suppliers is probably one of the most important steps to be taken towards developing an evaluation and selection model in the organization. In this article, first a review of the literature on the criteria and the field of supplier evaluation and selection are provided. These criteria are then placed into proper categories. In order to formulate a supplier evaluation and selection framework for the manufacturing organization under study, the implemented categorization is applied where a list of fifteen attributes and performance criteria is created; where upon it is secured with the help of a designated panel (project team). These features are then screened using Lawshe’s method the “social attribute” is removed from the list of fifteen. The remaining 14 other criteria are configured within the SEAP (Suppliers Evaluation based on Attributes and Performances) framework. The framework follows the objective of continually evaluating suppliers, both potential and actual ones through incorporating their performances into their qualification ratings. Based on the proposed framework, suppliers are evaluated on the basis of two types of criteria, - feature (attribute) and performance.

An Assessment of Agricultural Freight Transportation in Saki Area of Oyo State, Nigeria

Transportation no doubt remains a catalyst for all aspect of socio-economic and environmental development. Without its singular significance of mobility and accessibility for farmers, agricultural produce will rot on farms, while efforts in providing food would be fruitless. This paper assessed agricultural freight transportation in Saki area of Oyo State with a view of enhancing better product delivery mechanisms for farmers. It examined farmers’ socio-demographic; nature of farming and farm characteristics; and appraised the relationship between attributes of agricultural production and freight movement. Primary data employed consists of a questionnaire designed for farmers, structured interview for government officials complemented with personal field observations of agricultural freight transportation. 225 farmers were randomly selected for questionnaire administration. Major findings revealed that food crops, vegetables, fruits and poultry products are in persistent motion in the study area and that agricultural freight is a neglected sector with significant consequences on the access to cheap and affordable urban wellbeing. Findings also revealed that agricultural freight transportation within the study is very poor and uneconomical, as this depletes farmers’ profit-making. Regression analysis results show a significant relationship between attributes of agricultural freight and transport cost (F19205 11.916= P<0.05). The study recommends extensive road rehabilitation and constructions within the study area; provision of technological driven distribution and storage infrastructural facilities; creation of a databank for agricultural freight transport; reorganization and empowerment of farmers and improvement of rural infrastructure in Oyo state and Nigeria as a whole.

The application of AHP in the development of a taxonomy of merchant marine deck officers’ non-technical skills (NTS)

The importance of NTS has been realised in many safety critical industries. Recently the maritime domain has also embraced the idea and implemented an NTS training course for both merchant marine deck and engineering officers. NTS encompass both interpersonal and cognitive skills such as situational awareness, teamwork, decision making, leadership, managerial skills, communication and language skills. Well-developed NTS training allow ship’s officers to recognise quickly when a problem is developing and manage the situation safely and efficiently with the available team members. As a result, the evaluation and grading of deck officers’ NTS is necessary to assure safety at sea, reduce the effects of human error on-board ships, and allow ship board operations to be performed safely. This paper identifies the skills necessary for deck officers to effectively perform their duties on the bridge of a ship. To achieve this, initially, a taxonomy of deck officers’ NTS is developed through a review of relevant literature and the conducting of semi-structured interviews with experienced seafarers. Subsequently, NTS weighting data is collected from experienced seafarers to allow the weight of each element of the taxonomy to be established by the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).

A Multi-Objective Solution of Green Vehicle Routing Problem

Distribution is one of the major sources of carbon emissions and this issue has been addressed by Green Vehicle Routing Problem (GVRP). This problem aims to fulfill the demand of a set of customers using a homogeneous fleet of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFV) originating from a single depot. The problem also includes a set of Alternative Fuel Stations (AFS) that can serve the AFVs. Since AFVs started to operate very recently, Alternative Fuel Stations servicing them are very few. Therefore, the driving span of the AFVs is very limited. This makes the routing decisions of AFVs more difficult. In this study, we formulated a multi-objective optimization model of Green Vehicle Routing Problem with two conflicting objective functions. While the first objective of our GVRP formulation aims to minimize total CO2 emission, which is proportional to the distance, the second aims to minimize the maximum traveling time of all routes. To solve this multi-objective problem, we used ɛ-constraint method, a multi-objective optimization technique, and found the Pareto optimal solutions. The problem is formulated as a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model in IBM OPL CPLEX. To test our proposed method, we generated two hypothetical but realistic distribution cases in Izmir, Turkey. The first case study focuses on an inner-city distribution in Izmir, and the second case study involves a regional distribution in the Aegean Region of Turkey. We presented the Pareto optimal solutions and showed that there is a tradeoff between the maximum distribution time and carbon emissions. The results showed that routes become shorter, the number of generated routes (and therefore, vehicles) increases and vehicles visit a lower number of fuel stations as the maximum traveling time decreases. We also showed that as maximum traveling time decreases, the solution time significantly decreases.