Gap Analysis in Cost Estimation, Risk Analysis, and Contingency Computation of Transportation Infrastructure Projects: A Guide to Resource and Policy–Based Strategy Establishment

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 06019004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharareh Kermanshachi ◽  
Elnaz Safapour
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Estimation Risk

scholarly journals Harnessing Machine Learning for Classifying Economic Damage Trends in Transportation Infrastructure Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6376
Author(s):  
Junseo Bae ◽  
Sang-Guk Yum ◽  
Ji-Myong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Machine Learning Classification ◽  
Financial Losses

Given the highly visible nature, transportation infrastructure construction projects are often exposed to numerous unexpected events, compared to other types of construction projects. Despite the importance of predicting financial losses caused by risk, it is still difficult to determine which risk factors are generally critical and when these risks tend to occur, without benchmarkable references. Most of existing methods are prediction-focused, project type-specific, while ignoring the timing aspect of risk. This study filled these knowledge gaps by developing a neural network-driven machine-learning classification model that can categorize causes of financial losses depending on insurance claim payout proportions and risk occurrence timing, drawing on 625 transportation infrastructure construction projects including bridges, roads, and tunnels. The developed network model showed acceptable classification accuracy of 74.1%, 69.4%, and 71.8% in training, cross-validation, and test sets, respectively. This study is the first of its kind by providing benchmarkable classification references of economic damage trends in transportation infrastructure projects. The proposed holistic approach will help construction practitioners consider the uncertainty of project management and the potential impact of natural hazards proactively, with the risk occurrence timing trends. This study will also assist insurance companies with developing sustainable financial management plans for transportation infrastructure projects.

On Modelling of Chosen Activities during a Construction

2015 ◽  
Vol 796 ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
Kateřina Svobodová ◽  
Jan Čermák ◽  
Čeněk Jarský
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Direct Connection ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Software Application

This work will present the students project, which is being investigated by the authors and which has direct connection with the dissertations of two of them. In their work, the authors deal with the topic of standardization of time and cost estimating in construction industry. The result of the project will be a software application that can model chosen activities during a construction and process and analyse obtained data. The work will introduce activities that have been chosen as the most suitable for examining, and it will be explained why they have been chosen. The work will describe suggested approaches for measuring and calculation of the time spent on individual activities during a construction and for cost estimation. It will also deal with circumstances influencing the duration and there will be explained how useful can be risk analysis when estimating durations of activities. The conclusion will summarize results of the work and it will outline future development and planned progress.

scholarly journals Planning Modes for Major Transportation Infrastructure Projects (MTIPs): Comparing China and Germany

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianxiao Zhou ◽  
Rong Tan ◽  
Thomas Sedlin
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Final Approval ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Governance Practices

Because major transportation infrastructure projects (MTIPs) have significant effects for a sustainable development, the planning modes used for these projects have been a popular topic among scholars and policy makers. However, detailed descriptions and comparisons of planning modes in different countries are still rare. Therefore, this paper first provides a simple analytical framework based on the elements of the planning goal, the planning process, the planning result and the evaluation criteria. Focusing on the hierarchic mode adopted in China, and the democratic participatory mode adopted in Germany, the governance practices used in MTIP planning are clearly shown. Furthermore, by using two airport cases, this paper compares the differences between China and Germany in the realms of preparation, review, coordination, final approval, and planning performance. The main conclusions are: (1) The analytical approach presented in this paper provides an appropriate standard for describing and comparing planning modes for MTIPs; (2) the planning modes in the two countries each have advantages and disadvantages, reflecting the trade-off between ex ante and ex post costs; (3) the comparison between China and Germany may be instructive for both of these countries and for other countries in terms of improving their planning performance in the future.

The Anatomy of Geotechnical Risk Factors in Transportation Infrastructure Projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Amadi Alolote
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Contractor Selection ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Ground Conditions ◽  
Geotechnical Risk

Ground conditions constitute a key risk factor that can ultimately determine the successful performance of construction contracts, with the literature reporting statistics of projects which have significantly exceeded their initial budget due to geotechnical uncertainties. The study explores the nature of geotechnical risk factors in transportation infrastructure projects, which potentially lead to cost overruns. The study provides a kaleidoscopic view of the various routes to managing risks due to the ground, at the preconstruction phases of highway projects, and how a lack thereof, can culminate to determine the trend of high-cost overruns in highway projects. The study findings reveal arguments and widely contested issues in geotechnical practice, which to various degrees, can have a significant financial impact on project completion cost in highway projects. The findings uncover various error traps and gaps in practice such as the lack of deterministic costing methods that better reflect heterogeneous ground conditions; insufficiency of preliminary geotechnical exploration; poor geotechnical risk containment in contracts as well as non-deployment of multi-dimensional geotechnically bespoke contractor selection algorithm. The study submits that these gaps in practice constitute the various trajectories through which geotechnical risk can trigger inefficiency and wastage of financial resources, leading to cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects.

Attractiveness of Transportation Infrastructure Projects to Private-Sector Financing: Assessing the Hierarchical Analysis, Risk Scenario Method

2000 ◽  
Vol 1732 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Tsamboulas ◽  
Konstanzinos Panou ◽  
Constantionos Abacoumkin
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Risk Allocation ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
The Public ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Private Financing

A method to identify the attractiveness for private financing of a transport infrastructure project is presented. The objective of the method is to assist the public sector in identifying the attractiveness of a transportation infrastructure project for private financing, highlighting the factors that tend to reduce such attractiveness and providing the means to examine the viability of alternative risk-allocation scenarios related to risks undertaken by the state or private sector. The method allows for the simulation of the private sector’s attitude toward risk, employing practices of risk assessment in investments. Its innovation lies in how the whole process is structured so that participants understand beforehand whether an agreement can be concluded and which factors involved are critical. A key property of the method is the ease by which priorities of different risk components are synthesized into a hierarchical form through pairwise comparisons. This method, although targeted primarily for the public sector, could assist both private and public stakeholders investing in transport infrastructure projects (termed private-public partnerships) to reach an agreement. Basically, it is an interactive process characterized by the conflicting objectives and judgments of both public and private sectors.

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