Evaluation of the Impact of Land Use Change and Climate Change on Watershed Ecosystem Services in the Chenyulan Watershed

<p>The Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the most affected global hot-spots for climate change. Recent climate change in the Mediterranean can be characterized by faster increasing temperatures than the global mean and significant decreases in annual precipitation. Besides, important land cover changes have occurred, such as reforestation, agricultural intensification, urban expansion and the construction of many reservoirs, mainly with the purpose to store water for irrigation. Here we study the impacts of these changes on several ecosystem services in the Segura River catchment, a typical large Mediterranean catchment where many of the before mentioned changes have occurred in the last half century. We applied a hydrological model, coupled with a soil erosion and sediment transport model, to study the impact of climate and land cover change and reservoir construction on ecosystem services for the period 1971-2010. Eight ecosystem services indicators were defined, which include runoff, plant water stress, hillslope erosion, reservoir sediment yield, sediment concentration, reservoir storage, flood discharge and low flow. To assess larger land use changes, we also applied the model for an extended period (1952-2018) to the Taibilla subcatchment, a typical Mediterranean mountainous subcatchment, which plays an important role in the provision of water within the Segura River catchment. As main results we observed that climate change in the evaluated period is characterized by a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature. Detected land use change over the past 50 years is typical for many Mediterranean catchments. Natural vegetation in the headwaters increased due to agricultural land abandonment. Agriculture expanded in the central part of the catchment, which most likely is related to the construction of reservoirs in the same area. The downstream part of the catchment is characterized by urban expansion. While land use changed in more than 30% of the catchment, most impact on ecosystem services can be attributed to climate change and reservoir construction. All these changes have had positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services. The positive impacts include a decrease in hillslope erosion, sediment yield, sediment concentration and flood discharge (-21%, -18%, -82% and -41%, respectively). The negative impacts include an increase in plant water stress (+5%) and a decrease in reservoir storage (-5%). The decrease in low flow caused by land use change was counteracted by an increase in low flow due to reservoir construction. The results of our study highlight how relatively small climate and land use changes compared to the changes foreseen for the coming decades, have had an important impact on ecosystem services over the past 50 years.</p>

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Spatial Pattern Analysis of a Water-Related Ecosystem Service and Evaluation of the Grassland-Carrying Capacity of the Heihe River Basin under Land Use Change

Water ◽

10.3390/w13192658 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 2658

Author(s):

Rui Luo ◽

Shiliang Yang ◽

Yang Zhou ◽

Pengqun Gao ◽

Tianming Zhang

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Carrying Capacity ◽

Animal Husbandry ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

The Impact ◽

The Heihe River Basin

A key challenge to the sustainability and security of grassland capacity is the protection of water-related ecosystem services (WESs). With the change of land use, the supply of aquatic ecosystem services has changed, and the grassland-carrying capacity has been affected. However, the correlation mechanism between WESs and the grassland-carrying capacity is not clear. In this study, we used the InVEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model to evaluate the impact of land-use change on WESs, and made a tradeoff analysis between WESs and grassland-carrying capacity. Considering that the Heihe River Basin (HRB) was an important grassland vegetation zone, which was a milestone for the development of animal husbandry in China, HRB was taken as a case. The main findings are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution of WESs shows the dissimilation rule, the upper reaches are the main water yield area, the soil retention is weakening in the middle and lower reaches, and the pollution has further increased in the middle and upper reaches. (2) The carrying capacity of animal husbandry decreased in the upper reaches, increased in Shandan County and Zhangye City in the middle reaches, and decreased sharply in other regions. (3) There was a positive correlation between the livestock-carrying capacity and nitrogen export in 2018, which was increasing. As the change of land use has changed the evapotranspiration structure, WESs have undergone irreversible changes. Meanwhile, the development of large-scale irrigated farmland and human activities would be the source of a further intensification of regional soil erosion and water pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to trade off the WESs and animal husbandry under land-use change. This paper revealed how WESs changed from 2000 to 2018, the characteristics of the changes in the spatial and temporal distribution, and the carrying capacity. It aims to provide a scientific basis for coordinating the contradiction between grassland and livestock resources, improving the regional ecological security situation, and carrying out ecosystem management.

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Assessing the Impact of Floods Disaster on Soil Erosion Risk Based on the RUSLE-GloSEM Approach in Western Iran

10.21203/rs.3.rs-775510/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Akbari ◽

Ehsan Neamatollahi ◽

Hadi Memarian ◽

Mohammad Alizadeh Noughani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Agricultural Development ◽

Erosion Risk ◽

Before And After ◽

Global Soil ◽

Major Floods ◽

The Impact

Abstract Floods cause great damage to ecosystems and are among the main agents of soil erosion. Given the importance of soils for the functioning of ecosystems and development and improvement of bio-economic conditions, the risk and rate of soil erosion was assessed using the RUSLE model in Iran’s Lorestan province before and after a period of major floods in late 2018 and early 2019. Furthermore, soil erosion was calculated for current and future conditions based on the Global Soil Erosion Modeling Database (GloSEM). The results showed that agricultural development and land use change are the main causes of land degradation in the southern and central parts of the study area. The impact of floods was also significant since our evaluations showed that soil erosion increased from 4.12 t ha-1 yr-1 before the floods to 10.93 t ha-1 yr-1 afterwards. Field surveying using 64 ground control points determined that erodibility varies from 0.17 to 0.49% in the study area. Orchards, farms, rangelands and forests with moderate or low vegetation cover were the most vulnerable land uses to soil erosion. The GloSEM modeling results revealed that climate change is the main cause of change in the rate of soil erosion. Combined land use change-climate change simulation showed that soil erosion will increase considerably in the future under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. In the study area, both natural factors, i.e. climate change and human factors such as agricultural development, population growth, and overgrazing are the main drivers of soil erosion.

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Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-018-2422-8 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 135 (3-4) ◽

pp. 1031-1044 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Thomas Gries ◽

Margarete Redlin ◽

Juliette Espinosa Ugarte

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

The Impact

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Climate change versus land-use change—What affects the ecosystem services more in the forest-steppe ecotone?

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143525 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 759 ◽

pp. 143525

Author(s):

Fengqi Cui ◽

Bojie Wang ◽

Qin Zhang ◽

Haiping Tang ◽

Philippe De Maeyer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Forest Steppe

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Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2020.022 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 51 (5) ◽

pp. 976-993

Author(s):

Yuhui Yan ◽

Baolin Xue ◽

Yinglan A ◽

Wenchao Sun ◽

Hanwen Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Precipitation Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Ne China ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Hailar Basin ◽

The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

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Land Use Zoning for Conserving Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2015/496942 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Chenchen Shi ◽

Jinyan Zhan ◽

Yongwei Yuan ◽

Feng Wu ◽

Zhihui Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

The Heihe River Basin

Ecosystem services are the benefit human populations derive directly and indirectly from the natural environment. They suffer from both the human intervention, like land use zoning change, and natural intervention, like the climate change. Under the background of climate change, regulation services of ecosystem could be strengthened under proper land use zoning policy to mitigate the climate change. In this paper, a case study was conducted in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin to assess the ecosystem services conservation zoning under the change of land use associated with climate variations. The research results show the spatial impact of land use zoning on ecosystem services in the study area which are significant reference for the spatial optimization of land use zoning in preserving the key ecosystem services to mitigate the climate change. The research contributes to the growing literature in finely characterizing the ecosystem services zones altered by land use change to alleviate the impact of climate change, as there is no such systematic ecosystem zoning method before.

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Forecasting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-4-4265-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (6) ◽

pp. 4265-4295 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

J. Dams ◽

S. T. Woldeamlak ◽

O. Batelaan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Balance Model ◽

Groundwater Model ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Groundwater System ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Land-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible.

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11123353 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 3353 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽

Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽

Thomas Panagopoulos ◽

Elham Rafiei Sardooi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Loss ◽

Soil Cover ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Future Period ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

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