Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Fahmi Abdul Hamid ◽  
Ani Shabri
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach

Factors Determining Gold Prices in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anis Mat Dalam ◽  
Noorhaslinda Kulub Abd Rashid ◽  
Jaharudin Padli
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Gold Reserve

Gold is a valuable asset to a country because of its liquidity. Gold reserve can stabilize the currency in a country. The objective of this paper is to identify the factors contributing to the volatility of gold prices, such as Real Malaysia GDP, inflation rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates. The data was analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with time series data, with 30-year coverage from 1987 to 2016. Findings showed that only Real Malaysia GDP and crude oil prices were significantly related to gold prices. As a conclusion, this study can be used as reference by other investors. The author suggests to other researchers to further improve upon this study by adding more variables or diversifying the variables that relate to volatility of gold prices.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Changes in Crude Oil Prices and the Flow of Government Revenue

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwunweike Stella ◽  
Achu Tonia Chinedu ◽  
Awa Kalu Idika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This work is set out as an investigation into the impact of change in oil prices on government revenue broken into oil and nonoil component. Drawing data from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and covering the period 1981 to 2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used because of its advantages over other regression techniques. It was found that changes in oil price affected oil revenue within the studied period leaving no significant impact on nonoil revenue. The result obviously reflects the Nigerian economy and its mono-product characteristic. It is therefore recommended that a conscious policy effort should be made to diversify the economy in a manner that makes revenue to the government multifarious functions.

scholarly journals Determinants of Money Supply in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 181-199
Author(s):  
Aderopo R. Adediyan
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Money Multiplier ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Reserve Ratio

Studies on money supply determinants focus on the Classicists or Monetarists, Keynesians and post-Keynesians variables like income and money multiplier. This research extends the literature on money supply determinants to include the influence of financial liberalization on money supply with a reference to Nigeria between 1980 and 2019, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Data used for the study were collected from the 2019 CBN Annual Statistical Bulletin. The study found that financial liberalization is an important factor in determining money supply in Nigeria, in addition to currency ratio, required reserve ratio and high-powered money. As a result, the extent of the liberalization of the financial sector matters in decisions on the regulation of money supply in the economy.

scholarly journals Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bound Test

Objective – The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique – The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co-integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Findings – The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi. 2019. Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016), J. Bus. Econ. Review 4 (2): 97 – 104. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4) JEL Classification: D1, D13, D19, E30.

scholarly journals The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council States due to Low Oil Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 279
Author(s):  
Khaled Abdalla Moh'd AL-Tamimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Literature Reviews

This paper shows the effect of a drop in oil price on the economic growth of GCC states as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic using monthly data for (2019/2020 M1 – 2019/2020 M12) where oil priceis an explanatory variable and economic growth is the affected variable. Because the economies of the GCC countries are centered mostly on oil, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic has become a serious concern since they depend on the outside world in diverse ways. The confirmed number of cases in the GCC countries is eliciting fear about security in these countries. This paper focuses on analyzing theoretical and empirical literature reviews to show the effects of oil price on economic growth and explaining this effect in GCC states for this period using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique in Eviews program. This paper concluded that there are negative and significant effects of oil price on the economic growth of Kuwait and Qatar,but insignificant effects of oil price on the economic growth of Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates and a positive and significant effect of oil price on the economic growth of Saudi Arabia by using monthly data for (2019/2020 M1 – 2019/2020 M12) at a significance level  of 5%.Also, this paper reaches a recommendation of the GCC states to improve their economies through other sectors and not by relying on oil to enhance their economic growth.

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