scholarly journals Changes in Crude Oil Prices and the Flow of Government Revenue

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwunweike Stella ◽  
Achu Tonia Chinedu ◽  
Awa Kalu Idika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This work is set out as an investigation into the impact of change in oil prices on government revenue broken into oil and nonoil component. Drawing data from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and covering the period 1981 to 2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used because of its advantages over other regression techniques. It was found that changes in oil price affected oil revenue within the studied period leaving no significant impact on nonoil revenue. The result obviously reflects the Nigerian economy and its mono-product characteristic. It is therefore recommended that a conscious policy effort should be made to diversify the economy in a manner that makes revenue to the government multifarious functions.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umar Bala ◽  
Lee Chin
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Panels ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opec Member ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria. Three different kinds of oil price data were applied in this study: the actual spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price, and an average of the Brent, WTI, and Dubai oil price. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dynamic panels were used to estimate the short- and long-term impacts. Also, we partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found that both the positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when the oil prices dropped. We also found that the money supply, the exchange rate, and the gross domestic product (GDP) are positively related to inflation, while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policy-makers should be cautious when formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices, as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of a contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate. Lastly, we suggest that the government should encourage domestic food production, both in quantity and quality, to reduce inflation.

scholarly journals Stock Prices of Renewable Energy Firms: Are There Asymmetric Responses to Oil Price Changes?

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donggyu Lee ◽  
Jungho Baek
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This article revisits the question of whether crude oil prices have a positive effect on stock the prices of renewable energy firms. To examine this question carefully, we allow for the asymmetric effects of oil price changes in our modeling process, using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. We find that changes in oil prices indeed have a significant, positive short-run effect on renewable energy stock prices in an asymmetric manner. However, this short-run effect does not appear to last in the long-run.

scholarly journals Tax revenue and private domestic investment

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Richard Umeokwobi ◽  
Emeka Nkoro
Keyword(s):  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Used Oil ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of tax revenue on private domestic investment in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018 using the modified ordinary least squares- Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The paper used oil revenue, non-oil revenue, and Corporate Income Tax (CIT) as the independent variables while Private Domestic Investment (PDI) is the dependent variable. Oil revenue and non-oil revenue were used as a proxy for oil and non-oil tax. These data were obtained from secondary sources- central Bank of Nigeria, World Bank database and Federal Inland Revenue service statistical bulletin. The result showed that a long-run relationship exists between the aforementioned variables. Also, the paper revealed that oil and non-oil do not have a significant impact on PDI but CIT has a positive and significant impact on PDI. The paper recommends that proper measures/reforms should be put in place in order to reduce the impact of tax on private domestic investment in Nigeria.

Factors Determining Gold Prices in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anis Mat Dalam ◽  
Noorhaslinda Kulub Abd Rashid ◽  
Jaharudin Padli
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Gold Reserve

Gold is a valuable asset to a country because of its liquidity. Gold reserve can stabilize the currency in a country. The objective of this paper is to identify the factors contributing to the volatility of gold prices, such as Real Malaysia GDP, inflation rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates. The data was analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with time series data, with 30-year coverage from 1987 to 2016. Findings showed that only Real Malaysia GDP and crude oil prices were significantly related to gold prices. As a conclusion, this study can be used as reference by other investors. The author suggests to other researchers to further improve upon this study by adding more variables or diversifying the variables that relate to volatility of gold prices.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Oil Price, Energy Consumption, and CO2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Test

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 5588
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abumunshar ◽  
Mehmet Aga ◽  
Ahmed Samour
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Imported Oil

The main objective of this research was to test the effect of oil prices, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on Turkey’s carbon emissions by using three co-integration tests, namely, the newly-developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing technique as proposed by (McNown et al., 2018); the new approach involving the Bayer–Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test; and the H-J (2008) co-integration technique, which induces two dates of structural breaks. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) approaches were utilized to test the long-run interaction between the examined variables. The Granger causality (GC) analysis was utilized to investigate the direction of causality among the variables. The long-run coefficients of ARDL, DOLS, CCR, and FMOLS showed that the oil prices had a negative influence on CO2 emissions in Turkey in the long run. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that non-renewable energy, which includes oil, natural gas, and coal, increased CO2 emissions. In contrast, renewable energy can decrease the environmental pollution. These empirical findings can be attributed to the fact that Turkey is heavily dependent on imported oil; more than 50% of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Hence, oil price fluctuations have severe effects on the economic performance in Turkey, which in turn affects energy consumption and the level of carbon emissions. The study suggests that the rate of imported oil in Turkey must be decreased by finding more renewable energy sources for the energy supply formula to avoid any undesirable effects of oil price fluctuations on the CO2 emissions, and also to achieve sustainable development.

Oil prices, armed conflict and government revenue in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1196-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udoma Johnson Afangideh ◽  
Augustine Ujunwa ◽  
Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Purpose Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil, highlights how external vulnerabilities, weakening internal structure and insecurity could significantly exacerbate public revenue loss. Understanding the nature, trend and impact of these factors on government revenue is one of the questions that still remain unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The study focusses on the state-failure and frustration-aggression hypotheses to explain the nature and trend of armed conflicts in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the effect of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue. Findings The study reveals that crude oil price, terrorism and militancy have significant negative effect on government revenue in short- and long-run Nigeria. Evidence from the study therefore supports the theory that macroeconomic fluctuation is largely determined by endogenous and exogenous factors in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications In view of this review, future studies should empirically analyse the interactive impact of militancy, terrorism and global oil prices on government expenditure or a combination of government revenue and expenditure. Originality/value The study provides evidence on the role of internal and external factors on macroeconomic fluctuation, and recommended appropriate suite of policies that could mitigate external and internal vulnerabilities, especially during upsurge in armed conflicts.

scholarly journals Nexus between Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Odisha, India: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-144
Author(s):  
Pratap Kumar Jena
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in agricultural research as it is observed that the climate change has unfavorably distressed the agricultural production in different regions in India. Therefore, the present study has empirically examined the relationship between climate change and agricultural production in the selected districts of Odisha, India using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model over the period 1993 to 2019. The study found that the climate variables have adversely affected the crops production in the districts of Odisha. In order to minimize the impact of climate change on crops production in the state, there must have implementation of various policies and adaptive strategies by the government and farmers.

scholarly journals ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF CRUDE OIL AND PALM OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-268
Author(s):  
KP Prabheesh ◽  
Nisful Laila
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Linear Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

This paper empirically examines the impact of the price of crude oil petrol and palm oil on Indonesia's economic growth. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2019 and linear, and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to cointegration, the study finds 1) A significant non-linear effect of oil prices on country's output. 2) The palm oil price changes have a higher effect on the country's output as compared to petroleum prices. 3) A decline in palm price in the international market leads to a higher adverse effect on the country's economic growth as compared to petroleum prices.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umar Bala ◽  
Lee Chin
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Panels ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opec Member ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria. Three different oil price data were applied in this study; the specific spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price and an average of the Brent, WTI and Dubai oil price. The dynamic panels ARDL were used to estimate the short and the long-run impacts. Also, this study partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found both positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when oil prices dropped. The results from the study also found that money supply, the exchange rate and GDP are positively related to inflation while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policymakers should be cautious in formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate, and lastly, it is proposed that the government should encourage domestic food production both in quantity and quality to reduce inflation.

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