Demographic-Economic Forecasting within an Activity-Commodity Framework: Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1067-1083 ◽  
Author(s):  
P W J Batey ◽  
M Madden
Keyword(s):  
Activity Analysis ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Theoretical Considerations

This paper presents a methodology which allows demographic and economic forecasting models to be integrated in a consistent manner. By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework, a number of interesting results are obtained. First, a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers is derived which offers considerable advantages over those currently in use. Second, partitioning the framework provides fresh insights into the complex relationships between demographic and economic variables. These developments in methodology are tested in a case study of Mersey side where an operational version of the framework is applied in a forecasting context.

The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Reichmann
Keyword(s):  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Social Legitimacy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Economic Future ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
Epistemic Process

How do economic forecasters produce legitimate and credible predictions of the economic future, despite most of the economy being transmutable and indeterminate? Using data from a case study of economic forecasting institutes in Germany, this chapter argues that the production of credible economic futures depends on an epistemic process embedded in various forms of interaction. This interactional foundation—through ‘foretalk’ and ‘epistemic participation’ in networks of internal and external interlocutors—sharpens economic forecasts in three ways. First, it brings to light new imaginaries of the economic future, allowing forecasters to spot emerging developments they would otherwise have missed. Second, it ensures the forecasts’ social legitimacy. And finally, it increases the forecasts’ epistemic quality by providing decentralized information about the intentions and assumptions of key economic and political actors.

Aspects of the Relationships between the Community of Sheikh Abd al-Qurna and Ancient Egyptian Monuments

2020 ◽  
pp. 507-522
Author(s):  
Andrew Bednarski ◽  
Gemma Tully
Keyword(s):  
Social Action ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Social Awareness ◽  
Single Case Study ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Ancient Egyptian ◽  
Complex Relationships

Epigraphers and archaeologists working in Egypt must navigate a host of complex relationships both on and off site. This chapter explores the multifaceted nature of local Egyptian peoples’ relationships with nearby monuments through the lens of a single case study: the site of Sheikh Abd al-Qurna and its local population, the Qurnawi. Egyptologists have not traditionally sought to incorporate formally the stories and histories of local populations in their studies of pharaonic sites. An increasing blend of social awareness and the desire for social action on the part of both foreign professionals and local activists, however, is pushing Egyptologists to re-evaluate their practices, which, in turn, is moving the discipline in new and positive directions.

Error analysis of hybrid photovoltaic power forecasting models: A case study of mediterranean climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 117-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Grazia De Giorgi ◽  
Paolo Maria Congedo ◽  
Maria Malvoni ◽  
Domenico Laforgia
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Power Forecasting

scholarly journals An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Salgado ◽  
José Ramírez-Álvarez ◽  
Diego Mancheno
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazard ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Consumption Demand ◽  
Two Sectors ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractThe 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador. This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective, with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study. In general, the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model, which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers. Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated, which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method. The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant, and under some of the simulated scenarios, based on the official information with respect to earthquake management, the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.

Estimating the economic impact of a port through regional input–output tables: Case study of the Port of Cartagena (Spain)

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Artal-Tur ◽  
José María Gómez-Fuster ◽  
José Miguel Navarro-Azorín ◽  
José María Ramos-Parreño
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Input Output

Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Huang ◽  
Arunima Malik ◽  
Manfred Lenzen ◽  
Yutong Jin ◽  
Yafei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Output Analysis ◽  
Sichuan Earthquake ◽  
Input Output Analysis

Steuerzahlverhalten quantifizieren

2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-503
Author(s):  
Korinna Schönhärl
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Method ◽  
The Political ◽  
Tax Morale ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Measuring Methods ◽  
Ideal Image ◽  
Tax Payments ◽  
The Ideal ◽  
Payment Behaviour

Abstract From the 1880s scientists developed methods to measure (dishonest) tax payment behaviour. The first part of this article provides an overview of these methods and their development. The second part enquires into the function of measuring methods in the societal discourse about (honest) tax payments. The tax morale research of Günter Schmölders, carried out in the 1950s and 1960s, is then examined as a case study. The focus of interest is on the political advice that Schmölders gave, as based on his empirical results, and on the ideal image of the citizen and society which underlay the scientific method.

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