The Value of Making an Extra Effort: Campaign Spending and Electoral Outcomes in Recent British General Elections—A Decomposition Approach

1996 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 2081-2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
C J Pattie ◽  
R J Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Technical Problems ◽  
Extra Effort ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Modelling Procedure ◽  
General Elections

An increasing volume of research has shown that the amount which British political parties spend on constituency campaigns at general elections is related to their relative performance there. Because parties are better able to mobilise campaign resources where they are already electorally strong, and because they tend to remain strong in the same parts of the country over long sequences of elections, however, there are technical problems in separating out the ‘real’ impacts of campaign spending from those which reflect prior strength. A two-stage modelling procedure is introduced here which allows such separation: it provides strong evidence that where parties spend more than the average for a constituency of a certain type, they garner electoral rewards accordingly.

scholarly journals Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

The Effectiveness of Local Campaign Spending in the 1993 and 1997 Federal Elections in Canada

2004 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Munroe Eagles
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Estimation ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Three Stage Least Squares ◽  
Two Stage Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Techniques

Recent studies of the effects of campaign spending by political parties and candidates at elections in Canada and elsewhere have established the importance of local constituency campaigns. However, particular claims to measure the effects of campaign spending on the vote have been questioned on methodological grounds. This article revisits the question of whether local spending matters in Canadian federal elections. Responding to some criticisms of earlier work, this analysis presents the results of two parallel regression analyses (the first employing two–stage least squares estimation, the second using three–stage least squares techniques) of the effects of local spending in the 1993 and 1997 elections. The results offer strong confirmation that comparatively greater local spending by candidates enhances their vote shares, and diminishes that of rivals, albeit to different degrees for different parties and elections.

The ‘David and Goliath’ and 2015 Election Outcomes in Nigeria: From the Opposition to the Ruling Party

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Toochi Aniche
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
General Elections ◽  
David And Goliath ◽  
Ruling Party

Generally, Nigerian political parties in the present republic have been hampered by crisis of internal democracy thus undermining their political leadership recruitment function. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a good example of one of these Nigerian political parties that lacks internal democracy. In fact, PDP was a leviathan. The 2015 Election symbolised a contest between David and Goliath. The electoral outcome is that PDP has transformed from a ruling party to an opposition party. The study, by relying on the theory of relative autonomy of the state and secondary sources, concludes that lack of internal democracy was a necessary condition for PDP’s poor performance in the 2015 General Elections, and thus, there is a relationship between crisis of internal democracy and 2015 electoral outcomes. Also, the article noted that PDP authoritarianism deepened crisis of internal democracy in Nigeria and that this authoritarian character of the former ruling PDP was a reflection of the authoritarian character of the Nigerian state, which is currently shaping the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The study is essentially qualitative, historical and inductive.

scholarly journals Rallies around the Flag-Draped Coffins: The Electoral Effects of Security Force Casualties in Terror Attacks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This article examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

Trends in Michigan Supreme Court Elections 2000–2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN S. KLEMANSKI
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Distinct Difference ◽  
Independent Expenditures ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Negative Tone ◽  
Electoral Competitiveness

ABSTRACT This article explores various trends in Michigan Supreme Court elections from 2000 through 2012. Within the backdrop of the structure of Court elections, dimensions such as incumbency, electoral competitiveness, the role of parties, and campaign spending are examined. This study finds that while incumbents still retain some important advantages, incumbents are no longer automatically re-elected. Moreover, Supreme Court elections are becoming increasingly competitive, as the margins of victory have been reduced substantially in the most recent elections. Even though Supreme Court general elections are officially non-partisan, political parties play a major role, with a formal role in the nominations process, but also through independent expenditures and issue advertising on television. Interest groups and parties both have been outspending candidates in recent elections, and thus have added to the negative tone of Court campaigns. An overall trend of increased campaign spending has been found during the period investigated. In addition, a distinct difference in the level of electoral competitiveness and overall campaign spending was identified when comparing the 2000 through 2006 elections with the 2008 through 2012 elections.

The Never-ending Story of Law and Electoral System in Lesotho

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoolo Nyane
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Legal Discourse ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Constitutional Democracy ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Laws ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Mixed Electoral System ◽  
2012 Election

While electoral discontent has been the enduring feature of constitutional democracy in Lesotho since independence, disagreement over electoral system is a fairly recent phenomenon. When the country attained independence in 1966 from Britain, electoral system was not necessarily one of the topical issues of pre-independence constitutional negotiations. The major issues were the powers of the monarch, the office of prime minister, the command of the army and many more.  It was taken for granted that the country would use the British-based plurality electoral system.  This is the system which the country used until early 2000s when the electoral laws were reformed to anchor a new mixed electoral system.  When the new electoral laws were ultimately passed in 2001, the country transitioned from a plurality electoral system to a two-ballot mixed member proportional system. By this time, electoral system had acquired prominence in politico-legal discourse in Lesotho.  In the run-up to 2007 elections, bigger political parties orchestrated the manipulation of electoral laws which culminated in clearly distorted electoral outcomes. The manipulations motivated further reforms in the run-up to 2012 election which resulted in the single-ballot mixed member proportional system. The purpose of this paper is to critically evaluate how electoral laws have anchored electoral system reforms throughout the various historical epochs in Lesotho since independence. The paper contends that while the country has been courageous, unlike most of its peers, to introduce far-reaching electoral system changes, the reform of electoral laws has not been so helpful in attaining the higher objectives of political inclusivity, constitutionalism and stability in Lesotho.

Does Campaign Spending Affect Electoral Outcomes?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avi Ben-Bassat ◽  
Momi Dahan ◽  
Esteban F. Klor
Keyword(s):  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Electoral Outcomes

scholarly journals Voting Behavior in Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 392-408
Author(s):  
Miroslav Řádek
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
University Students ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Exit Poll ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Final Question

Abstract Department of Political Science at Alexander Dubcek University in Trencin prepared its own exit poll during election day on March 5, 2016. The survey asked seven questions that were aimed at determining the preferences of the respondents concerning not only the current but also past general elections. Interviewers surveyed the choice of political party or movement in parliamentary elections in 2016 as well as preferences in past elections. Followed by questions concerning motivation to vote - when did the respondents decide to go to vote and what or who inspired this decision. The survey also tried to found out how many preferential votes did the voters give to the candidates of political parties and movements. Final question asked about expectations for the future of individual respondents. This article is the information output of the survey. The interviewers were 124 university students and its return was 1,612 sheets. The aim of this paper is to communicate the findings of this unique survey, which is unprecedented in the Slovak political science.

scholarly journals La transparencia de los partidos políticos como estrategia electoral. Una evaluación de sus promesas y sus páginas web

Tripodos ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 83-104
Author(s):  
María Díez Garrido ◽  
Eva Campos Domínguez ◽  
Dafne Calvo
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Web Sites ◽  
The Political ◽  
New Parties ◽  
The Public ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Insight Into

El escenario digital ha impulsado pro­fundos cambios en el entorno político, entre los que se puede distinguir el im­pulso de la transparencia informativa. La transparencia se ha convertido en uno de los valores democráticos que los políticos quieren demostrar de cara a la ciudadanía, ya que es un signo de le­gitimidad, evolución y lucha contra la corrupción. Los partidos políticos han introducido la transparencia en sus dis­cursos y argumentarios. Precisamente las formaciones tienen una reputación baja en cuanto a apertura informativa. Este artículo pretende estudiar la intro­ducción de la transparencia en el dis­curso electoral de los partidos políticos. Para ello, se estudia la presencia de la transparencia en los programas elec­torales de las principales formaciones políticas españolas durante las últimas Elecciones Generales (2015 y 2016). A continuación, se realiza un análisis de contenido de sus páginas web, que pretende conocer su nivel de apertura informativa. Esta metodología nos per­mite descubrir si lo que promocionan las formaciones en los programas se relaciona con el desarrollo en sus pá­ginas web. Los resultados muestran las diferencias entre los nuevos partidos y los tradicionales, así como la evolución entre unos comicios y los siguientes.   Political Parties’ Transparency As an Electoral Strategy. An Evaluation of Their Promises and Their Websites The digital scenario has produced pro­found changes in the political environ­ment, and transparency is part of this transformation. Transparency has become one of the most valued aspirations that politicians want to demonstrate to the public, as it is a sign of legitimacy, evolution, and the fight against corrup­tion. Political parties have introduced transparency in their speeches and ar­guments. At the same time, political for­mations have a low reputation in terms of informative openness. This article aims to study the introduction of trans­parency in the political parties’ electoral discourse. To this end, we explore the presence of transparency in the electo­ral programs of the main Spanish poli­tical parties during the last two General Elections (2015 and 2016). Next, we carry out a content analysis of their web sites, which aims to gain deeper insight into their level of informative openness. This methodology allows us to determine if Spanish political parties promote in their programs the same ob­jectives that they put forward on their web sites. The results also show the di­fferences between the new parties and the traditional ones, as well as their evolution between the General Elections in 2015 and 2016.

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