The Results of Exit Polls in Kansas to Verify Voting Machine Counts in the November 2016 Election

Citizens’ exit polls are performed by local voters to verify the official reported election results. Five citizens’ exit polls were run in southeast Kansas during the Nov 8th 2016 election. These exit polls were designed specifically to verify computer generated vote counts and run solely by volunteer labor, all local citizens who were willing to put in the necessary hours on Election Day to conduct the poll and later, to count the results by hand. These exit polls were able to obtain high participation rates resulting in the ability to detect small yet statistically significant differences. All five polling stations surveyed show evidence of multiple statistical anomalies in both the pattern and size of the errors between the official results and exit poll results although biases were not uniformly oriented across sites. The small discrepancies found in the studied races were insufficient to alter the outcomes. Non-response bias and unintentional errors were evaluated as potential causes; those explanations were plausible in some but not all cases. These results show a pattern of discrepancies between the exit polls and computer counted results displaying consistent bias within sites. This would be an expected outcome of a deliberate manipulation of the computer results. While this data doesn’t conclusively prove election interference and manipulation of votes counts, it should be taken seriously as a sign of such interference. Doubts about the accuracy of the reported results are appropriate unless other plausible explanations for the discrepancies can be found.

FIRST EXIT POLL IN SERBIA: THE CASE OF VOŽDOVAC

In this paper we will present the results and analysis of the first exit poll that has been done in Serbia, or more precisely, in Belgrade municipality of Voždovac. During election day of the 2020 Serbian parliamentary election, we collected data from 2969 respondents in 40 voting spots. We applied number of statistical and data collection procedures in order to improve precision of predication. The collected data provided the evidence of a very accurate prediction. Beside the prediction of election results, we collected demographic data, as well as data of the timing of the making the decision to vote. Therefore, for the explorative purposes we present that data in the paper. We found significant differences among demographic categories regarding party/electoral list preferences. Additionally, we identify different patterns between SNS and Šapić voters, i.e. we found that SNS voters mostly decided to vote for this list a long time ago, while Šapić voters mostly decided to vote for this electoral list a few days before the elections. In conclusion, we discuss the possible reasons of such pattern.

Dynamics of (dis)trust between the news media and their audience: The case of the April 2019 Israeli exit polls

This paper explores the dynamics of (dis)trust among experts, journalists, and audiences through the case study of an inaccurate exit poll aired on a leading Israeli television channel. It combines empirical data from the Israeli April 2019 elections with a conceptual view of exit polls as both sources of information and national rituals to address public discourse on the polls and its underlying suspicions. A multi-method approach yielded a corpus consisting of focus groups with citizens, in-depth semi-structured interviews with journalists, pollsters and experts, and qualitative textual analysis of news reports. Using inductive-qualitative analysis, we identified three types of public narratives, each casting blame for the erroneous exit poll projection on a different type of actor. The statistical and biased-media narratives tally with declining trust in the news media and assume misbehavior by pollsters and news creators respectively. The deception narrative, on the other hand, suggests that right-wing voters systematically sabotaged the exit poll projections. By extending trust beyond journalistic information, this narrative foregrounds the cultural meaning of election night rituals. Taken together, the narratives found in this study delineate (dis)trust as an interplay of active participants in the creation, reception, and interpretation of news. Our findings thus touch upon key attitudes towards both media and democracy and have implications for further studies on collective rituals and information evaluations in an era of eroding trust.

The curious story of the 2018 Romanian traditional family referendum: buck-passing and the failure to mobilise voters

In 2018, a referendum to revise the Constitution took place in Romania. Just one article was in contention for revision. The goal was to make gay marriage unconstitutional. In the end, the referendum failed due to a low turnout of just 21.1%, below the 30% threshold required for validation. This paper looks into the causes of the low turnout. First, there is an overview of knowns and unknowns, such as lack of exit poll data and issues with the voting population numbers. The bulk of the paper deals with two overlapping narratives about the causes of low turnout - first, a boycott campaign and second, a combination of factors, especially low mobilisation. Using precinct level results, supplemented by pre and post referendum polling data, an examination of evidence for both narratives is put forward. The results provide a case for failure of mobilisation by main political parties and religious organisations, especially the Orthodox Church, despite public statements of support for a “Yes” vote in the referendum. In turn, this was based on a buck-passing strategy by political parties and religious organisations.

ANALISIS EFISIENSI PERHITUNGAN SUARA PEMILU DENGAN METODE QUICK COUNT, REAL COUNT DAN EXIT POLL

In the implementation of elections that go through a long and rigorous process, it still cannot guarantee that this election is conducted honestly and cleanly. So this is what causes the vote counting stage carrued out by the KPU/KPUD in various regions requires a very long time. The vote count in Indonesia is not only a quick count, one way to recapitulate during the election, but there is a real count and exit poll aslo a way to count the results of the vote. However, of the three types of recapitulation, there are several differences including the method used and the source of data obtained. As a result of this difference, in the percentage information that would implu uncertain information for the public who want to know about the vote count so as to reduce public confidence in the election process going forward. The method used in this study is an empirical research method that is analysing problem data and looking for information directly or using interview methods to complete the data in this study. This research is expected to produce a concrete analysis of three for calculating votes that are more efficient, precise and systematic in notification of information. Keyword: efficiency; incorrect information; three methods of counting votes AbstrakDalam pelaksanaan pemilu yang melalui proses yang panjang dan ketat, masih belum dapat menjamin bahwa pemilu ini dilakukan dengan jujur dan bersih., berbagai metode yang dilakukan oleh para kandidat merupakan faktor dalam terjadinya kecurangan dalam pemilu. Jadi inilah yang menyebabkan proses penghitungan suara yang dilakukan oleh masing-masing KPU/KPUD di berbagai daerah membutuhkan jangka waktu yang sangat lama. Penghitungan suara yang ada di Indonesia tidak hanya penghitungan cepat, salah satu cara untuk melakukan rekapitulasi selama pemilihan, tetapi ada penghitungan riil dan exit poll juga cara untuk menghitung hasil pemungutan suara. Namun, dari ketiga jenis rekapitulasi tersebut, ada beberapa perbedaan, termasuk metode yang digunakan dan sumber data yang diperoleh. Sebagai akibat dari perbedaan ini, dalam informasi persentase tersebut yang akan menyiratkan informasi tidak pasti bagi publik yang ingin tahu tentang perhitungan suara sehingga dapat menurunkan kepercayaan masyarakat dalam proses pemilu kedepan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode penelitian empiris yaitu mengkaji data permasalahan dan mencari informasi secara langsung atau menggunakan metode wawancara untuk melengkapi data dalam penelitian ini. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menghasilkan analisis konkret dari tiga metode untuk menghitung suara yang lebih efisien, tepat dan sistematis dalam pemberitahuan informasi.Kata kunci: efisiensi; informasi; tiga cara perhitungan suara

The Role of Incumbency, Ethnicity, and New Parties in Electoral Volatility in Slovakia

This paper analyzes electoral volatility in the 2020 Slovak elections at the level of individual voters using exit poll surveys. The availability of exit polls from the previous elections of 2012 and 2016 allows us to put the 2020 election in context and analyze the patterns (and deviances from them) observed across the three elections. Furthermore, the paper summarizes the aggregate volatility since 1992, demonstrating a high level of net volatility with peaks of over 30 percent. As for the individual level, the analysis concentrates on three important issues in volatility research: (1) vote losses of government parties and the incumbent effect; (2) the role of new parties in mobilization of previous non-voters and first-time voters; (3) since Slovakia is a country with a significant Hungarian minority, special attention is given to vote switching by Hungarian voters and more general patterns of ethnic voting.

Service Delivery Practices of Local Government in Federal Nepal

This paper presents effectiveness of service delivery practices of local government in federal context. In doing so, focus was given to analyze opportunities and challenges of administrative service delivery functions of Banganga Municipality of Kapilvastu District located in Province Number 5. This study applied mix method approach in which necessary data are collected from 20 administrative staffs and 100 service receivers selected purposively by applying institutional/exit poll survey, KII, and Observation techniques. The findings reflect the administrative service delivery mechanism becoming more accessible to the citizens. However, physical infrastructure of municipal and ward offices found very poor to offer efficient administrative service delivery to all including people with disabilities. The administrative staffs seem capable for offering efficient administrative service delivery but they are not sufficient. However, the municipality is not institutionally strong in terms of physical facilities. The local representatives also seem more accessible and accountable working with limited physical, economic and human resources. Finally, such challenges must be addressed with proper cooperation and collaboration between and among federation, provincial and local government for making regulatory administrative service delivery functions more effective and efficient.