scholarly journals The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Scott B. Power ◽  
Jeff Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Late 19Th Century ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Non Gaussian

Millions of Australians live in a 1500 km stretch of coastal catchments in south-east Australia. Major flooding in this region causes death, economic loss and major disruptions to the lives of its inhabitants. Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change might lead, or has already led, to an increased risk of extreme rainfall and associated flooding. Images of flooding commonly appear in the media, fuelling perceptions that flood frequency has already in-creased. Here we use a new dataset that allows us to estimate reliable trends over much longer periods than has previously been the case. The statistical significance of the trends is assessed using a method that is suitable for the non-Gaussian, serially correlated flood frequency data. We identify a statistically significant, increasing trend in the frequency of major floods since the late 19th century, which contributes to a 50% increase in frequency. While possible reasons for the increase are discussed (e.g. land use change, anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability), further research is needed to clarify the relative importance of possible contributors.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

6. Norths

2020 ◽  
pp. 100-115
Author(s):  
Donald Wright
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Gold Rush ◽  
Late 19Th Century ◽  
Northern Canada ◽  
The Real ◽  
Art And Literature ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

‘Norths’ distinguishes between the real northern Canada and its imagined north. The frozen north is a symbol of Canada that appears in songs, art, and literature. The actual north is rich in mineral resources, creating phenomena like the Klondike gold rush of the late 19th century. Other regions are rich in oil and natural gas. Fifty per cent of Canada is permafrost, making its landscape particularly vulnerable to climate change. This intensifies old questions about sovereignty, with the world’s Arctic powers engaged in a new gold rush. With shrinking glaciers appearing in both headlines and literature, the landscapes of the real and the imagined north are changing.

scholarly journals Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linh N. Luu ◽  
Paolo Scussolini ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Mugni Hadi Hariadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Tropical Depressions

AbstractIn October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.

How much of Typhoon Morakot's extreme rainfall is attributable to anthropogenic climate change?

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 3454-3464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chung‐Chieh Wang ◽  
Li‐Shan Tseng ◽  
Chien‐Chang Huang ◽  
Shih‐How Lo ◽  
Cheng‐Ta Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change

scholarly journals Estimation of the effects of climate change on flood-triggered economic losses in Japan

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1619-1649 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Tezuka ◽  
H. Takiguchi ◽  
S. Kazama ◽  
R. Sarukkalige ◽  
A. Sato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Kagoshima Prefecture ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. This study evaluates the effects of climate change on economic losses due to flood-related damage in Japan. Three selected GCM climate data were downscaled using an analytical method that uses observed precipitation data as the reference resolution. The downscaled climate data were used to estimate extreme rainfall for different return periods. The extreme rainfall estimates were then entered into a two-dimensional (2-D) non-uniform flow model to estimate flood inundation information. A novel technique based on the land use type of the flood area was employed to estimate economic losses due to flood damage. The results of the rainfall analysis shows that at present (in 2000), the Nankai region, the area from Wakayama Prefecture to Kagoshima Prefecture and the mountains of the Japan Alps receive very high extreme rainfall. By 2050, in addition to these areas, the rainfall in the Tokai and Koshinetsu regions will be 1.2 to 1.3 times greater than at present. The flood-related economic loss estimation shows that the relationship between increased extreme rainfall and increased potential economic loss due to flood damage has a nearly linear relationship. The overall variations show that the potential economic loss is greater for the SRES-B1, A2 and A1B scenarios for all return periods. These results clearly show that flood-related economic losses in Japan will increase significantly in the future as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Emma Aalbers ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Return Time ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Southern Germany ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
The One

Abstract. The extreme precipitation that would result in historic flooding across areas of northeastern France and southern Germany began on May 26th when a large cut-off low spurred the development of several slow moving low pressure disturbances. The precipitation took different forms in each country. Warm and humid air from the south fueled sustained, large-scale, heavy rainfall over France resulting in significant river flooding on the Seine and Loire (and their tributaries), whereas the rain came from smaller clusters of intense thunderstorms in Germany triggering flash floods in mountainous areas. The floods left tens of thousands without power, caused over a billion Euros in damage in France alone, and are reported to have killed at least 18 people in Germany, France, Romania, and Belgium. The extreme nature of this event left many asking whether anthropogenic climate change may have played a role. To answer this question objectively, a rapid attribution analysis was performed in near-real time, using the best available observational data and climate models. In this rapid attribution study, where results were completed and released to the public in one week and an additional week to finalise this article, we present a first estimate of how anthropogenic climate change affected the likelihood of meteorological variables corresponding to the event, 3-day precipitation averaged over the Seine and Loire basins and the spatial maximum of 1-day precipitation over southern Germany (excluding the Alps). We find that the precipitation in the Seine basin was very rare in April–June, with a return time of hundreds of years in this season. It was less rare on the Loire, roughly 1 in 50 years in April–June. At a given location the return times for 1-day precipitation as heavy as the highest observed in southern Germany is 1 in 3000 years in April–June. This translates to once roughly every 20 years somewhere in this region and season. The probability of 3-day extreme rainfall in this season has increased by about a factor 2.3 (> 1.6) on the Seine a factor 2.0 (> 1.4) on the Loire, with all four climate models that simulated the statistical properties of the extremes agreeing. The observed trend of heavy 1-day precipitation in southern Germany is significantly negative, whereas the one model that has the correct distribution simulates a significant positive trend, making an attribution statement for these thunderstorms impossible at this time.

scholarly journals Egeson's (George's) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Halberg ◽  
G. Cornélissen ◽  
K.-H. Bernhardt ◽  
M. Sampson ◽  
O. Schwartzkopff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Physiology ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Personal Life ◽  
Late 19Th Century ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Climatic Cycles

Abstract. In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson's publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson's life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results.

scholarly journals Tree Rings Record 19th-Century Anthropogenic Climate Change

Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Morton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Paleoclimate records, observational data, and climate modeling capture the influence of human activity on temperature seasonality.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document