Impact of climate change on area burned in Alberta's boreal forest

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cordy Tymstra ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Owen B. Armitage ◽  
Kimberley Logan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Northern Alberta

Eight years of fire weather data from sixteen representative weather stations within the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta were used to compile reference weather streams for low, moderate, high, very high and extreme Fire Weather Index (FWI) conditions. These reference weather streams were adjusted to create daily weather streams for input into Prometheus – the Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model. Similar fire weather analyses were completed using Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) output for northern Alberta (174 grid cells) to generate FWI class datasets (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code) for 1 ×, 2 × and 3 × CO2 scenarios. The relative differences between the CRCM scenario outputs were then used to adjust the reference weather streams for northern Alberta. Area burned was calculated for 21 fires, fire weather classes and climate change scenarios. The area burned estimates were weighted based on the historical frequency of area burned by FWI class, and then normalized to derive relative area burned estimates for each climate change scenario. The 2 × and 3 × CO2 scenarios resulted in a relative increase in area burned of 12.9 and 29.4% from the reference 1 × CO2 scenario.

Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan

2012 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Wang ◽  
Yong He ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Brian McConkey ◽  
Herb Cutforth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Short Communication ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Communication Climate ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.

scholarly journals A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 127 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 573-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Duveiller ◽  
M. Donatelli ◽  
D. Fumagalli ◽  
A. Zucchini ◽  
R. Nelson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Modelling ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Daily Weather Data

Assessing the capacity of Earth System Models to simulate spatiotemporal variability in fire weather indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Gallo Granizo ◽  
Jonathan Eden ◽  
Bastien Dieppois ◽  
Matthew Blackett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Global Evaluation ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global fire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable areas. At the global scale, fire danger is likely to increase in the near future due to warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, as projected by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There is a need to develop the most reliable projections of future climate-driven fire danger to enable decision makers and forest managers to take both targeted proactive actions and to respond to future fire events.</p><p>Climate change projections generated by Earth System Models (ESMs) provide the most important basis for understanding past, present and future changes in the climate system and its impacts. ESMs are, however, subject to systematic errors and biases, which are not fully taken into account when developing risk scenarios for wild fire activity. Projections of climate-driven fire danger have often been limited to the use of single models or the mean of multi-model ensembles, and compared to a single set of observational data (e.g. one index derived from one reanalysis).</p><p>Here, a comprehensive global evaluation of the representation of a series of fire weather indicators in the latest generation of ESMs is presented. Seven fire weather indices from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System were generated using daily fields realisations simulated by 25 ESMs from the 6<sup>th</sup> Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). With reference to observational and reanalysis datasets, we quantify the capacity of each model to realistically simulate the variability, magnitude and spatial extent of fire danger. The highest-performing models are identified and, subsequently, the limitations of combining models based on independency and equal performance when generating fire danger projections are discussed. To conclude, recommendations are given for the development of user- and policy-driven model evaluation at spatial scales relevant for decision-making and forest management.</p>

scholarly journals Extreme Wildfire occurrence in response to Global Change type Droughts in the Northern Mediterranean

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Ruffault ◽  
Thomas Curt ◽  
Nicolas K. Martin St-Paul ◽  
Vincent Moron ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Specific Interactions ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Mediterranean France

Abstract. Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large, high intensity wildfires. Yet, little is known regarding how it will affect fire weather and translate into wildfire behaviour. Here, we analysed the climatology of extreme wildfires that occurred during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016 in Mediterranean France. We identified two distinct shifts in fire climatology towards fire weather spaces that had not been explored before, and which result from specific interactions between the types of drought and the types of fire. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heatwave with a press drought intensified heat-driven fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and create several new generations of wildfire overwhelming fire suppression capacities.

scholarly journals Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1407-1423 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. Field ◽  
A. C. Spessa ◽  
N. A. Aziz ◽  
A. Camia ◽  
A. Cantin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Global Database

Abstract. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC = 1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRA's precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere–ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

Fire-Weather Index and Climate Change

2020 ◽  
pp. 45-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuzana Hubnerova ◽  
Sylvia Esterby ◽  
Steve Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

scholarly journals Evaluating quantile-based bias adjustment methods for climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Lehner ◽  
Imran Nadeem ◽  
Herbert Formayer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Statistical Bias ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Direct Model

Abstract. Daily meteorological data such as temperature or precipitation from climate models is needed for many climate impact studies, e.g. in hydrology or agriculture but direct model output can contain large systematic errors. Thus, statistical bias adjustment is applied to correct climate model outputs. Here we review existing statistical bias adjustment methods and their shortcomings, and present a method which we call EQA (Empirical Quantile Adjustment), a development of the methods EDCDFm and PresRAT. We then test it in comparison to two existing methods using real and artificially created daily temperature and precipitation data for Austria. We compare the performance of the three methods in terms of the following demands: (1): The model data should match the climatological means of the observational data in the historical period. (2): The long-term climatological trends of means (climate change signal), either defined as difference or as ratio, should not be altered during bias adjustment, and (3): Even models with too few wet days (precipitation above 0.1 mm) should be corrected accurately, so that the wet day frequency is conserved. EQA fulfills (1) almost exactly and (2) at least for temperature. For precipitation, an additional correction included in EQA assures that the climate change signal is conserved, and for (3), we apply another additional algorithm to add precipitation days.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Christophe F. Randin ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Present Species ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

Responses of boreal conifers to climate fluctuations: indications from tree-ring widths and carbon isotope analyses

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 524-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Renée Brooks ◽  
Lawrence B Flanagan ◽  
James R Ehleringer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Carbon Isotope ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Picea Mariana ◽  
Pinus Banksiana ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southern Boundary ◽  
The North

Spatial distribution and species composition of the boreal forest are expected to change under predicted climate change scenarios. Current research indicates that water limitations control the southern boundary of the central Canadian boreal forest and temperature limitations control the northern boundary. As part of Boreal Ecosystem - Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), we examined this idea by comparing annual variation in tree-ring widths and carbon isotope ratios ( delta 13C) of tree-ring cellulose with annual climatic parameters in the northern and southern boreal forest. Contrary to expectations, climate correlations with ring widths at the northern and southern sites were similar in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP). Annual growth was favored by cooler and wetter conditions. For jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), increased temperature and spring precipitation favored annual growth at both sites. In the north, annual growth was negatively correlated with winter precipitation. The delta 13C - climate correlations in Pinus banksiana followed current distribution theories. In the south, potential evapotranspiration explained significant annual delta 13C variation, whereas in the north, winter and growing season precipitation influenced annual delta 13C variations. Our data support the concept that moisture limits the southern range of Pinus banksiana and cold soil temperatures limit the northern extent. However, colder, wetter conditions favored growth of Picea mariana throughout its range. These observations strengthen the concept that species respond individually to climate change, not as a cohesive biome.

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