Theory and application of mark - recapture and related techniques to aerial surveys of wildlife

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Barker
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Independence ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Complete Independence ◽  
Multiple Observer ◽  
Observer Studies

The key difficulty in assessing animal numbers from the air is that not all animals are seen by the observers. Methods for estimating detection probabilities, or accounting for imperfect detection, are reviewed including double surveys, use of sightability models, mark–resight, and mark–recapture. The assumptions needed for each method are considered as well as issues concerning survey design. For closed-population mark–recapture modelling particular attention is given to multiple observer studies. An emphasis is that an assumption of complete independence in double-observer studies is rarely justifiable and that independent observers will generally only satisfy an assumption of conditional independence and not complete independence.

Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark - recapture estimates

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura B. Hanson ◽  
James B. Grand ◽  
Michael S. Mitchell ◽  
D. Buck Jolley ◽  
Bill D. Sparklin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Density Estimator ◽  
Density Estimates ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Feral Pigs ◽  
Open Population ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Models Comparison

Closed-population capture–mark–recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work.

scholarly journals A comparison of mark - recapture distance-sampling methods applied to aerial surveys of eastern grey kangaroos

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel M. Fewster ◽  
Anthony R. Pople
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Density Estimates ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Transect Line ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Commercial Harvest ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Full Independence

Aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus spp.) in Queensland are used to make economically important judgements on the levels of viable commercial harvest. Previous analysis methods for aerial kangaroo surveys have used both mark–recapture methodologies and conventional distance-sampling analyses. Conventional distance sampling has the disadvantage that detection is assumed to be perfect on the transect line, while mark–recapture methods are notoriously sensitive to problems with unmodelled heterogeneity in capture probabilities. We introduce three methodologies for combining together mark–recapture and distance-sampling data, aimed at exploiting the strengths of both methodologies and overcoming the weaknesses. Of these methods, two are based on the assumption of full independence between observers in the mark–recapture component, and this appears to introduce more bias in density estimation than it resolves through allowing uncertain trackline detection. Both of these methods give lower density estimates than conventional distance sampling, indicating a clear failure of the independence assumption. The third method, termed point independence, appears to perform very well, giving credible density estimates and good properties in terms of goodness-of-fit and percentage coefficient of variation. Estimated densities of eastern grey kangaroos range from 21 to 36 individuals km–2, with estimated coefficients of variation between 11% and 14% and estimated trackline detection probabilities primarily between 0.7 and 0.9.

scholarly journals Population estimates of Antillean manatees in Puerto Rico: an analytical framework for aerial surveys using multi-pass removal sampling

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 1340-1349
Author(s):  
Jaime A Collazo ◽  
Matthew J Krachey ◽  
Kenneth H Pollock ◽  
Francisco J Pérez-Aguilo ◽  
Jan P Zegarra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Detection Probability ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Population Size Estimates

AbstractEffective management of the threatened Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Puerto Rico requires reliable estimates of population size. Estimates are needed to assess population responses to management actions, and whether recovery objectives have been met. Aerial surveys have been conducted since 1976, but none adjusted for imperfect detection. We summarize surveys since 1976, report on current distribution, and provide population estimates after accounting for apparent detection probability for surveys between June 2010 and March 2014. Estimates in areas of high concentration (hotspots) averaged 317 ± 101, three times higher than unadjusted counts (104 ± 0.56). Adjusted estimates in three areas outside hotspots also differed markedly from counts (75 ± 9.89 versus 19.5 ± 3.5). Average minimum island-wide estimate was 386 ± 89, similar to the maximum estimate of 360 suggested in 2005, but fewer than the 700 recently suggested by the Puerto Rico Manatee Conservation Center. Manatees were more widespread than previously understood. Improving estimates, locally or island-wide, will require stratifying the island differently and greater knowledge about factors affecting detection probability. Sharing our protocol with partners in nearby islands (e.g., Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola), whose populations share genetic make-up, would contribute to enhanced regional conservation through better population estimates and tracking range expansion.El manejo efectivo del manatí antillano amenazado en Puerto Rico requiere estimados de tamaños de poblaciónes confiables. Dichas estimaciones poblacionales son necesarias para evaluar las respuestas a las acciones de manejo, y para determinar si los objetivos de recuperación han sido alcanzados. Se han realizado censos aéreos desde 1976, pero ninguno de ellos han sido ajustados para detecciones imperfectas. Aquí resumimos los censos desde 1976, actualizamos la distribución, y reportamos los primeros estimados poblacionales ajustados para la probabilidad de detección aparente en los censos de Junio 2010 a Marzo 2014. Las estimaciones poblacionales en áreas de mayor concentración del manatí promedió 317 ± 103, tres veces más abundante que los conteos sin ajuste (104 ± 0.56). Las estimaciones poblacionales en tres áreas fuera de las áreas de mayor concentración del manatí también fueron marcadamente diferentes (75 ± 9.89 vs 19.5 ± 3.5). El estimado mínimo poblacional en la isla entera fue de 386 ± 89, similar al estimado máximo de 360 sugerido en el año 2005, pero menor a los 700 sugeridos recientemente por el Centro de Conservación de Manatíes de Puerto Rico. Documentamos que el manatí tiene una distribución más amplia de lo que se sabía con anterioridad. El mejoramiento de los estimados poblacionales locales o a nivel de isla requerirá que se estratifique a la isla en forma diferente y que se investiguen los factores que influencian a la probabilidad de detección. Compartir protocolos como este con colaboradores de islas vecinas (por. ej., Cuba, Jamaica, Española), cuyas poblaciones de manatíes comparten material genético, contribuiría a la conservación regional mediante mejores estimaciones poblacionales y monitoreo de la expansión de su ámbito doméstico.

scholarly journals The influence of animal mobility on the assumption of uniform distances in aerial line-transect surveys

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel M. Fewster ◽  
Colin Southwell ◽  
David L. Borchers ◽  
Stephen T. Buckland ◽  
Anthony R. Pople
Keyword(s):  
Survey Design ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
High Mobility ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Transect Line ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Pack Ice ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Distance Data ◽  
Crabeater Seals

Line-transect distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating animal density from aerial surveys. Analysis of line-transect distance data usually relies on a requirement that the statistical distribution of distances of animal groups from the transect line is uniform. We show that this requirement is satisfied by the survey design if all other assumptions of distance sampling hold, but it can be violated by consistent survey problems such as responsive movement of the animals towards or away from the observer. We hypothesise that problems with the uniform requirement are unlikely to be encountered for immobile taxa, but might become substantial for species of high mobility. We test evidence for non-uniformity using double-observer distance data from two aerial surveys of five species with a spectrum of mobility capabilities and tendencies. No clear evidence against uniformity was found for crabeater seals or emperor penguins on the pack-ice in East Antarctica, while minor non-uniformity consistent with responsive movement up to 30 m was found for Adelie penguins. Strong evidence of either non-uniformity or a failure of the capture–recapture validating method was found for eastern grey kangaroos and red kangaroos in Queensland.

scholarly journals Population size of Aegla longirostri Bond-Buckup and Buckup, 1994 (Crustacea, Decapoda, Anomura): comparison of methods with the mark-recapture technique in closed population

Nauplius ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joele S. Baumart ◽  
Gláucia B. Cogo ◽  
Fidel E.C. Morales ◽  
Sandro Santos
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Comparison Of Methods ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Closed Population

The mark–recapture method applied to population estimates of a freshwater crab on an alluvial plain

2013 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Débora de Azevedo Carvalho ◽  
Pablo Agustín Collins ◽  
Cristian Javier De Bonis
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Alluvial Plain ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Short Term Study ◽  
Chi Square Test

Mark–recapture methods are a useful population estimation tool, although with many assumptions that cannot always be satisfied for all types of organisms and environments. In the present study, three mark–recapture methods (Petersen, Schnabel and Schumacher–Eschmeyer) were applied in a preliminary trial to estimate the population size of the crab Trichodactylus borellianus and to gain information that would support the use of the methods in the field. The accuracy of these estimates was verified by analysing the percentage of bias, the width of the confidence intervals, and by a chi-square test. The assumptions of equal catchability and closed population were verified, along with assumptions related to the efficiency of marking. The adjusted methodology was applied in a short-term study of a pond on the Paraná floodplain. The results showed that the assumptions were satisfied for both the experimental and field studies. The Schnabel was the most accurate method evaluated in both studies. Although the Schumacher–Eschmeyer method also provided accurate results in the field study, it needed large samples to give reliable estimates. The applicability of these methods depends on the stage of the hydrological cycle. The choice of a short-term research design will ensure that the assumption of a closed population is valid for research of this type on an alluvial plain.

Estimating detection probabilities of tagged fish migrating past fixed receiver stations using only local information

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Melnychuk ◽  
Carl J. Walters
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Radio Telemetry ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Migration Routes ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Acoustic Tags ◽  
Attenuation Models ◽  
Local Detection

We developed a method to predict the probability of detecting acoustic tags crossing a receiver station using only detection information at that station. This method is suitable for acoustic or radio telemetry studies in which individually tagged animals migrate past fixed stations (where a station may consist of one or more receivers). It is based on fitting attenuation models to sequences of detections and missed transmissions of individually coded tags in fish migrating past stations of the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking Project (POST). We used estimated attenuation model parameters from detected fish at each station to predict the number of fish that crossed the station undetected, which in turn was used to calculate the local detection probability. This estimator was correlated (r = 0.54–0.81 in river and coastal habitats) with mark–recapture estimates of detection probability (pmr) that use nonlocal detection information at stations further along migration routes. This local detection probability estimate can be used as a covariate of pmr in mark–recapture models and can predict approximate values of pmr at final detection stations where pmr is not estimable because of the lack of recaptures further along migration routes.

Estimating Detection Probabilities from Multiple-Observer Point Counts (Estimación de Probabilidades de Detección a Partir de Conteos en Puntos Hechos por Varios Observadores)

The Auk ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 123 (4) ◽  
pp. 1172-1182
Author(s):  
Mathew W. Alldredge ◽  
Kenneth H. Pollock ◽  
Theodore R. Simons
Keyword(s):  
Point Counts ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Multiple Observer

Population estimation with sparse data: the role of estimators versus indices revisited

2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (10) ◽  
pp. 1754-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin S McKelvey ◽  
Dean E Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Small Mammal ◽  
Population Estimation ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Primary Methods ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Sources Of Variation ◽  
Estimation Models

The use of indices to evaluate small-mammal populations has been heavily criticized, yet a review of small-mammal studies published from 1996 through 2000 indicated that indices are still the primary methods employed for measuring populations. The literature review also found that 98% of the samples collected in these studies were too small for reliable selection among population-estimation models. Researchers therefore generally have a choice between using a default estimator or an index, a choice for which the consequences have not been critically evaluated. We examined the use of a closed-population enumeration index, the number of unique individuals captured (Mt+1), and 3 population estimators for estimating simulated small populations (N = 50) under variable effects of time, trap-induced behavior, individual heterogeneity in trapping probabilities, and detection probabilities. Simulation results indicated that the estimators produced population estimates with low bias and high precision when the estimator reflected the underlying sources of variation in capture probability. However, when the underlying sources of variation deviated from model assumptions, bias was often high and results were inconsistent. In our simulations, Mt+1 generally exhibited lower variance and less sensitivity to the sources of variation in capture probabilities than the estimators.

Aerial mark - recapture estimates of wild horses using natural markings

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle J. Dawson ◽  
Cameron Miller
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Horse Population ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Discrete Population ◽  
Over Time

Aerial mark–recapture population estimates utilising the natural markings of wild horses to identify individuals was applied in the Bogong High Plains, Alpine National Park, Victoria. A discrete population of wild horses occupying an area of 180 km2 was sampled over two days in 2005. This study explored the feasibility of a technique that aimed to enable managers to estimate the size of the horse population and monitor it over time. Four observers (including the pilot) searched for horses from a helicopter. Once horses were sighted, photographic and written observations were used to ‘mark’ each animal. The survey was repeated the following day with observations ‘recapturing’ individuals. Data were analysed using several mark–recapture estimators, and the derived population estimates ranged from 89 (±5.3, s.e.) horses to 94.7 (±7.9, s.e.) horses. We found that the method gave a level of precision relevant to management, but needs refinement. The technique and its assumptions should be tested further by increasing the number of samples and video should be used to improve identification of individuals. We believe that this is a novel application for aerial surveys, which are typically unsuitable for estimating the size of small populations. This technique was developed for horses but may be used on other conspicuous species with unique natural markings.

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