Ecological Studies of the Black Swan IV.* The Timing and Success of Breeding on Two Nearby Lakes on the Southern Tablelands of New South Wales

1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 261 ◽  
Author(s):  
LW Braithwaite

The breeding of black swans on two nearby lakes, 18 km apart, was documented over a 5-year period. The lakes differed in physiography and in botanical features. The numbers of swans breeding and the timing of breeding differed markedly between the lakes and coincided with gross differences and changes in observed abundance in aquatic plants known to be important as food for swans. Important factors affecting the selection of nest sites were social factors, security, the presence of an adequate substrate and of materials to construct a nest, and ease of access to water. Within each breeding season the timing of laying often differed among nesting colonies on the one lake, apparently reflecting an influence from social factors in synchronizing breeding within a colony. Breeding success was poor, due evidently to failure of cygnets to survive in the first weeks after hatching and to desertion of eggs in nests. Failure of food supplies may be the main cause. The reproductive strategy of the black swan appears to be essentially opportunistic; the female is capable of laying repeatedly over an extended period, so that eggs are often produced at times that do not necessarily predict suitable conditions for either the survival of cygnets or even the completion of incubation.

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (02) ◽  
pp. 1250008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry Marsh ◽  
Paul Pfleiderer

Post-mortems of the financial crisis typically mention "black swans" as the rare events that were the Achilles heel of financial models, manifesting themselves as "25 standard deviation events occurring several days in a row". Here, we briefly discuss the implications of "black swan" events in asset pricing and risk management. We then show that the "black swans" problem virtually disappears for S&P Index returns when surprises are measured relative to the standard deviation of the conditional S&P distribution. In our illustration, we use the one-day-lagged VIX as an easy-to-understand measure of that conditional S&P standard deviation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. 154-160
Author(s):  
Dr. Kartikey Koti

The essential idea of this assessment is investigate the social factors affecting particular theorists' decisions making limit at Indian Stock Markets. In the examination coordinated standard of direct is Classified subject to two estimations the first is Heuristic (Decision making) and the resulting one is prospect.. For the assessment coordinated the data used is basic natured which is assembled through a sorted out survey from 100 individual money related authorities based out in Hubli and Dharwad city, Karnataka State in India on an accommodating way. The respondents were both sex and overwhelming part male were 68% . These theorists were having a spot with the age bundle between35-45 which is 38%. These respondents have completed their graduation were around 56%. These respondents had work inclusion of 5 to 10 years which is 45% and the majority of which were used in government portion which is 56%. Their compensation was between 4 to 6 Lakh and were fit for placing assets into business areas. The money related experts were widely masterminded placing assets into different portfolios like 32% in Share market and 20 % in Fixed store. These examiners mode to known various endeavor streets were through News, family and allies.  


1998 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela I. Erickson

In 1995, the Latina adolescent birth rate surpassed that of African Americans for the first time. This article investigates cultural and social factors affecting the initiation of sexual intercourse among Latina adolescent mothers in Los Angeles. The data are from life history interviews with forty young mothers and their partners conducted in 1994 to 1997. Results suggest that sexual intercourse is initiated within the context of the couple's developing relationship, and that the course of relationships is highly scripted. Men pressure for sex and women resist. Women should be ignorant about sex, but control access to intercourse. Sex is never discussed. Thus, it is unexpected, and contraception other than withdrawal is not used. This script places young Latinas at enormous risk for pregnancy and STDs.


2019 ◽  
Vol 239 (4) ◽  
pp. 661-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Dummert ◽  
Ute Leber ◽  
Barbara Schwengler

AbstractThe current situation in the German apprenticeship market is characterized by two contradictory developments. On the one hand, establishments are experiencing increasing problems filling the training positions they offer, and the number of vacant training positions is climbing. On the other hand, the transition into training is still difficult for many young people, and the number of unsuccessful vocational training applicants is rising. Hence, matching supply with demand is becoming increasingly difficult in the German job market for training positions. Using the Linked Employer-Employee dataset (LIAB) from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), our paper provides a closer examination of the phenomenon of unfilled training positions. It presents an overview of the evolution of vacant training positions in eastern and western Germany and attempts to explain the number of vacancies by investigating the factors responsible for the establishments’ inability to fill their training positions. We assume that training position vacancies are due not only to internal company reasons such as firm size or the wage offer for apprentices but also to external conditions such as general regional factors. Therefore, our analysis also considers the situation on the demand side of the labor market within a region. The results of our multilevel mixed-effects estimations show that in addition to characteristics on the enterprise level, regional determinants also affect the share of vacant apprenticeships. With respect to establishment-related factors, mainly characteristics that describe the attractiveness of the firm prove to be important. With regard to regional-specific factors, we find that the availability of school leavers in a region in addition to the level of regional-sectoral competition impacts the recruiting success of establishments. Our analysis also shows that there are remarkable differences between eastern and western Germany concerning both the quantitative importance of unfilled training positions and the factors affecting them.


2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnie L. Swinburn ◽  
Patricia A. Fleming ◽  
Michael D. Craig ◽  
Andrew H. Grigg ◽  
Mark J. Garkaklis ◽  
...  

Grasstrees (Xanthorrhoea) are an important structural component of many Australian ecosystems and also an important resource for many fauna species. Grasstrees have distinctive morphologies, with a crown of long thin leaves and skirts, the latter of which are accumulated dead leaves; both are incinerated by fire. This study determined the morphological features of Xanthorrhoea preissii, which change in response to fire from 6 months to 21 years post-burn. In addition, using radio-telemetry and spool-tracking, we determined that grasstrees are utilised as foraging and nesting resources for mardos (Antechinus flavipes leucogaster (Gray, 1841), Marsupialia: Dasyuridae). Recently burnt grasstrees (6 months post-burn) appeared not to be used by mardos at all. We found few mardos in these recently burnt sites, and the one individual we managed to track for 126 m utilised only a single grasstree: a 2-m-tall multiple-crowned grasstree that had escaped the fire was used as a nest site. For sites 5 years post-burn, mardos selectively utilised grasstrees with larger crown areas and those with a greater number of crowns compared with a random sample of available trees. At the 14-year post-burn sites, mardos still demonstrated some selection for grasstrees, although no specific single feature could be determined as most significant. We recorded humidity and temperature buffering effects in association with post-burn accumulation of grasstree skirt material and found that even dead grasstree ‘logs’ were an important resource for nests. We conclude that mardos utilise both live and dead grasstrees for foraging and nest sites, possibly owing to the availability of dense cover, a buffered microclimate, and potentially also food resources. Fire-management policies that promote habitat heterogeneity and retain several intact-skirted grasstrees within the landscape are likely to benefit mardos.


2000 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Cohn ◽  
R. A. Bradstock

Factors affecting the survival of post-fire germinants in mallee communities, in central western New South Wales, were examined. Experiments compared the relative effects of native and introduced herbivores (kangaroos, goats, rabbits), after small- and large-scale fires (20–50 and > 10 000 ha, respectively), with particular emphasis on edge effects, seedling clustering, topography and eucalypt canopy presence. The experiments (1985–1997) focused on common understorey species Acacia rigens Cunn. ex Don, A. wilhelmiana F.Muell. and Triodia scariosa N.T.Burb. subsp. scariosa, in mallee dominated by Eucalyptus species. Following a large fire (1985), high spring rainfall and rabbit grazing on A. rigens only, survival of Acacia species and T. scariosa remained relatively high 4 years later (60–70%). After small burns (1987, 1988), low spring rainfall and grazing by rabbits and kangaroos, survival of Acacia species declined to between 0 and 30% of the germinants by the second summer. In most cases, local extinction had occurred within 8 years. After small burns (1988, 1989) and low spring rainfall, the survival of T. scariosa declined to between 0 and 35% of germinants by the second summer (effect of grazing unknown). No consistent effect of edge, topography and eucalypt canopy was found. Survival of clustered Acacia seedlings was between 10 and 20% lower than unclustered seedlings. Given the high frequency of low rainfall and its interaction with grazing, prescribed burning of mallee for wildfire control and nature conservation may require the local elimination of rabbits and a reduction in kangaroo numbers, especially in the first spring and summer following seedling germination.


2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-22
Author(s):  
V. A. Bessonov

The article discusses two groups of problems in Russian statistics that still have no viable solutions. The frst one - the state of the statistics interface – is the set of channels through which users obtain statistical information. The second – metadata status – is the information on how the indicators are constructed. The problems are considered from the standpoint of consumers of statistical information, performing tasks of analyzing economic dynamics.It is concluded that with the transition from traditional printed materials to statistical information systems, interface development has come to a standstill, and in the development of metadata, there is no compliance with any standards, uniformity, and consistency. In the author's opinion, these problems seriously hinder the improvement of all Russian statistics, being a kind of blood clots. When an interface becomes a bottleneck, the value of statistics to users decreases. The unsatisfactory state of metadata leads to the fact that consumers of statistical information are not always able to use it adequately, and the problems of statistical methodology are conserved.The causes of the problems are determined, on the one hand, by the complex history of domestic statistics (extended period of development in a planned economy and the specifcs of economic transformation), and, on the other hand, by the lack of effective feedback.The author considers possible approaches to addressing the problems. The expediency of creating groups of specialists in the structure of the statistical department on the main problem blocks, acting as points of growth and centers of competence, accumulating knowledge, mastering domestic and foreign experience, attracting representatives of the expert community, directing and controlling the activities to solve problems, is substantiated.


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