scholarly journals Host immunity shapes the impact of climate changes on the dynamics of parasite infections

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (11) ◽  
pp. 2970-2975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Mignatti ◽  
Brian Boag ◽  
Isabella M. Cattadori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Host Immunity ◽  
Helminth Species ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Parasite Infections ◽  
The Impact

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infections, and yet host immunity can also influence the impact of warming on host–parasite interactions and mitigate the long-term effects. We used time-series data from two helminth species of a natural herbivore and investigated the contribution of climate change and immunity on the long-term and seasonal dynamics of infection. We provide evidence that climate warming increases the availability of infective stages of both helminth species and the proportional increase in the intensity of infection for the helminth not regulated by immunity. In contrast, there is no significant long-term positive trend in the intensity for the immune-controlled helminth, as immunity reduces the net outcome of climate on parasite dynamics. Even so, hosts experienced higher infections of this helminth at an earlier age during critical months in the warmer years. Immunity can alleviate the expected long-term effect of climate on parasite infections but can also shift the seasonal peak of infection toward the younger individuals.

scholarly journals Assessing Stream-Aquifer Connectivity in a Coastal California Watershed

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Bwalya Malama ◽  
Devin Pritchard-Peterson ◽  
John J. Jasbinsek ◽  
Christopher Surfleet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Pumping Tests ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
The Impact

We report the results of field and laboratory investigations of stream-aquifer interactions in a watershed along the California coast to assess the impact of groundwater pumping for irrigation on stream flows. The methods used include subsurface sediment sampling using direct-push drilling, laboratory permeability and particle size analyses of sediment, piezometer installation and instrumentation, stream discharge and stage monitoring, pumping tests for aquifer characterization, resistivity surveys, and long-term passive monitoring of stream stage and groundwater levels. Spectral analysis of long-term water level data was used to assess correlation between stream and groundwater level time series data. The investigations revealed the presence of a thin low permeability silt-clay aquitard unit between the main aquifer and the stream. This suggested a three layer conceptual model of the subsurface comprising unconfined and confined aquifers separated by an aquitard layer. This was broadly confirmed by resistivity surveys and pumping tests, the latter of which indicated the occurrence of leakage across the aquitard. The aquitard was determined to be 2–3 orders of magnitude less permeable than the aquifer, which is indicative of weak stream-aquifer connectivity and was confirmed by spectral analysis of stream-aquifer water level time series. The results illustrate the importance of site-specific investigations and suggest that even in systems where the stream is not in direct hydraulic contact with the producing aquifer, long-term stream depletion can occur due to leakage across low permeability units. This has implications for management of stream flows, groundwater abstraction, and water resources management during prolonged periods of drought.

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals The impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on profitability of Islamic rural bank in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank (BPRS) in Indonesia. Using monthly time series data from January 2010 - December 2018. The estimation model used is a vector error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results showed that CAR and LnTA had a significant positive relationship, while NPF, BOPO and IPI had a negative and significant relationship to the profitability of Islamic rural banks. But FDR and Inflation variables are not significantly related to the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results leave implications for policy makers, investors and banking sector managers. Based on evidence that bank profitability is more influenced by internal banks (as specific as banks), this research can help Islamic rural banks to help them understand which factors are important to be analyzed to obtain higher profitability.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of climate change compound indices in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Roshani ◽  
Fatemeh Parak ◽  
Hossein Esmaili
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Tourism Climate

Abstract The time-placement scheme of climate extreme changes is important. In this regard, a set of a compound indices derived using daily resolution climatic time series data is examined to assess climate change in Iran. The compound indices were examined for 47 synoptic meteorological stations during 1981–2015. The results show that most stations experienced a negative trend for the cool/dry (CD) and cool/wet (CW) index and a positive trend in CW was observed in some dispersed small areas. Both warm/dry (WD) and warm/wet (WW) indices have similar behavior, but the magnitude and spatial consistency of WW days were much less than WD days. The results show that more than 80% of stations experienced a decrease in the annual occurrence of the cold modes and an increase in the annual occurrence of the warm modes. On the other hand, universal thermal climate index (UTCI) change demonstrated a significant increase in the annual occurrence of strong heat stress (32–38 °C) and significant decrease in the annual occurrence of no thermal stress class (9–26 °C). Moreover, trends in tourism climate index (TCI), including TCI≥ 60 and TCI≥ 80, showed similar changes but with weak spatial coherence.

scholarly journals Climatic Trends in Different Bioclimatic Zones in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Pramod K. Jha ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Madan Lall Shrestha ◽  
Rangaswamy Munniappan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Trends

The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970–2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 °C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999–2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 °C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najia SAQIB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Impact

Economic theory suggests that sound and efficient financial systems channel capitals to its most productive uses are beneficial for economic growth. Sound and efficient financial systems are especially important for sustaining growth in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of banking sector liberalization on long-term economic growth in Pakistan by using a time series data for the period 1971–2011. The results show that there exist a significant positive long run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in the country. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the relationship remain positive and significant no matter what combination of the omitted variables are used in the basic model. Thus, our findings support the core idea that banking sector development stimulates long term economic growth in a country.

scholarly journals Comparison of the impact of lending and inflation rates on economic growth in Vietnam and China

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
Doan Van Dinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Impact

Inflation and lending rates are two important macroeconomic indicators as they affect economic growth. The correlation between the inflation rate and the lending rate in Vietnam and China is analyzed to determine whether the lending rate causes inflation or not. An ordinary least square model (OLS) and a unit root test are applied to check the correlation and cointegration related to the inflation and lending rates to avoid spurious regression. The research time series data were collected from 1996 to 2017. The correlation of Vietnam’s variables is 56%, the correlation of China’s variables is 55%, which is a close correlation. The empirical cointegration test results for Vietnam and China are suitable for two research models. The relationship between these two indicators influences each other. In the short term, inflation stimulates economic growth through loose monetary policy through the lending rate. However, in the long term, if the money supply increases continuously, inflation will slow economic growth and increase bad debt. The empirical results are to make accurate forecasts and determine monetary policy for micro-managers who set the goal of sustainable economic growth and have a strategy for economic development in the short and long term.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals Potential Tax Reforms and Kuwait Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
K. Lawler ◽  
F. Ali Al-Sayegh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this study is to identify whether tax reforms are viable in Kuwait in order to create more government income from sources other than oil. The study examines the relationship between the changes in tax revenues, changes in oil revenue and changes in GDP in Kuwait using time series data from 1998 to 2015. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) is used to check for the existence of a unit root. The cointegration test is applied to test for long term relationships between variables using the General Least Square (GLS) method of estimation. The results of the tests find that the impact of changes in tax revenues on changes in the GDP of Kuwait is insignificant. Therefore, Kuwait’s government could rationally implement tax reforms to have incremental sources of income other than oil revenue. Moreover, it is argued that the government might consider implementing broad based consumption taxes and value added taxes into the tax structure Kuwait, and to invest the revenues from those taxes in productive policies, to induce long term economic growth.

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