Industrial surveys in the UK: Part II Stocks, profits and business confidence over the business cycle

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-480
Author(s):  
Philip A. Klein ◽  
Geoffrey H. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk

A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 72-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Charles Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
External Sector

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

scholarly journals UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCE IN THE UK: TRENDS SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 253 ◽  
pp. R18-R28
Author(s):  
Marianne Sensier ◽  
Fiona Devine
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Regional Economic Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk

We investigate economic resilience of UK regions before, during and after the 2007/8 global financial crisis. We date business cycle turning points in real output, employment and productivity to assess the resilience dimensions of resistance, recovery and renewal and rank the economic resilience of regions in a resilience scorecard. Our empirical results reveal that the business cycle in productivity has not returned to its pre-recession peak level for Yorkshire and the Humber and the employment level has not recovered in Scotland. The resilience scorecard ranks the South East as the most resilient region with Northern Ireland the least resilient.

scholarly journals The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 96-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denise R. Osborn ◽  
Marianne Sensier
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Linkages ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk

This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market playing a key role in the US but not the European countries, including the UK. In contrast, international linkages are important for the European countries. Our models suggest that the US and German economies have now emerged from the recession of 2001, and that all five countries will be in expansion during the third quarter of this year.

An Assessment of OECD and UK Leading Indicators

1996 ◽  
Vol 156 ◽  
pp. 63-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Var Models ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Good Ability ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk

Leading indicators are produced by both the OECD and the UK Office of National Statistics as tools for predicting turning points of the business cycle. An assessment on the basis of performance at turning points is frustrated by their scarcity. It is found that the indicators generally have significant (but not good) ability to predict changes in the direction of the variable they are intended to lead. When they are included in VAR models the standard error of quarter on quarter changes is generally lower than when pure autoregressions are used. However, the forecasting power of such equations is poor, and the general conclusion is that such indicators are not good forecasting tools.

Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 58-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Massmann ◽  
James Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Historical Levels ◽  
Sustained Increase

Recent estimates suggest that the UK business cycle is closer to the Eurozone business cycle than it was in the early 1990s. This paper investigates whether this phenomenon has been accompanied by increased correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles. Considering a range of alternative measures of the business cycle we find, using 40 years of monthly industrial production data, no clear evidence for a sustained increase in correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles. Instead, in the 1990s, the correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles has been volatile relative to historical levels. It is only recently, i.e. since 1997, that the UK has become more correlated with the Eurozone, although the level of correlation is lower than against non-Eurozone countries. Importantly, the strength of these relationships is sensitive to how the business cycle is measured. Care should therefore be exercised when using business cycles estimates to test the relationship between UK and Eurozone business cycles.

Business Cycles and Turning Points: A Survey of Statistical Techniques

2003 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 90-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Massmann ◽  
James Mitchell ◽  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Statistical Techniques ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk

The business cycle has an importance in the popular debate which can tend to run ahead of the problems in measuring it. This paper provides a survey of the main statistical techniques that are used to measure the cycle. An application to the UK illustrates that the choice of what measure, or measures, to use is more than a dry academic issue. Inference about the business cycle is potentially sensitive to measurement. Fortunately, however, there is an element of consensus.

The impact of the business cycle on occupational injuries in the UK

2009 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 178-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhys Davies ◽  
Paul Jones ◽  
Imanol Nuñez
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Occupational Injuries ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Measure of Monopsony

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Langella ◽  
Alan Manning
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Wage Distribution ◽  
Power Combining ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Monopsony Power ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Over Time

Abstract There has been increasing interest in recent years in monopsony in labour market. This paper discusses how we can measure monopsony power combining insights from models based on both frictions and idiosyncrasies. It presents some evidence from the UK and the US about how monopsony power varies across the wage distribution within markets, over the business cycle and over time.

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