scholarly journals Extreme events and climate change: the post-disaster dynamics of forest fires and forest storms in Sweden

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolf Lidskog ◽  
Daniel Sjödin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Post Disaster

Climate Change in Himalayas: Research Findings and Complexities

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 01-13
Author(s):  
Surendra P. Singh ◽  
Surabhi Gumber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Transboundary Cooperation ◽  
Translational Ecology ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Water Springs

Himalayas are important for its influence on the climate of much of Asia, and ecosystem services, which serve some 1.3 billion people living in 10 river basins that originate from the region. The region is warming rapidly and is highly vulnerable to climate change. This review (i) sheds light on some fairly well established facts about climate change in Himalayas, (ii) makes an attempt to give an integrated picture of its impact on various components, and (iii) discusses complexities in generalizing the findings. Himalayas are warming at 2-3 time higher rates than global average rate, at least in some areas. The rate of warming is increasing in time and with elevation. As for rainfall, uncertainty is high, but generally predictions are for more violent events. According to an analysis based on 75 glaciers, 63 glaciers are showing shrinkage and 12 growth, however, their (growing ones) measurements are of low confidence level. The contribution of glacier and snow melt to total river discharge varies from 5-60% from west to east. Violent extreme events and glacier melt lakes are predicted to generate more disasters. The intensification of pre-monsoon drought is likely to be a critical climate change factor, affecting several ecological processes and social behaviour. Its examples are drying of water springs, suppression of treeline and desiccation of seeds of the species in which seeds remain lying on ground for a relatively longer period before conditions for germination become favourable, and spread of forest fires. The intensified water shortage is a threat even to tourism supporting capacity of the region. Apple cultivation in the state of Himachal Pradesh is getting adversely affected by the lack of sufficient winter-chilling. Some interventions are possible to undertake to address climate change impact. They include addressing data gaps, particularly with regard to changes in glacier ice mass, volumes and timing of river flows, frequency and duration of extreme events, transboundary cooperation, and development of translational ecology research in which scientists work in a close partnership with stakeholders and administrators. The Himalayan region is disproportionately affected by climate change induced disasters and miseries, though the region's per capita fossil fuel consumption is ridiculously low, raising a issue of climate change justice.

Climate Change, Extreme Events, and Hurricane Sandy: From Non-Stationary Climate to Non-Stationary Policy

2014 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450008 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Solecki ◽  
Cynthia Rosenzweig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New York ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Stationary Policy ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Policy Window ◽  
Post Disaster

This paper illustrates and examines the development of a flexible climate adaptation approach and non-stationary climate policy in New York City in the post-Hurricane Sandy context. Extreme events, such as Hurricane Sandy, are presented as learning opportunities and create a policy window for outside-of-the-box solutions and experimentation. The research investigates the institutionalization of laws, standards, and codes that are required to reflect an increasingly dynamic set of local environmental stresses associated with climate change. The City of New York responded to Hurricane Sandy with a set of targeted adjustments to the existing infrastructure and building stock in a way that both makes it more resistant (i.e., strengthened) and resilient (i.e., responsive to stress) in the face of future extreme events. Post-Sandy New York experiences show that the conditions for a post-disaster flexible adaptation response exist, and evidence shows that the beginnings of a non-stationary policy generation process have been put into place. More broadly, post-disaster policy processes have been configured in New York to enable continuous co-production of knowledge by scientists and the community of decision-makers and stakeholders.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

Stress Testing to Assess Recovery from Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. John Plodinec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Potential Benefits

Abstract Over the last decade, communities have become increasingly aware of the risks they face. They are threatened by natural disasters, which may be exacerbated by climate change and the movement of land masses. Growing globalization has made a pandemic due to the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases ever more likely. Societal discord breeds its own threats, not the least of which is the spread of radical ideologies giving rise to terrorism. The accelerating rate of technological change has bred its own social and economic risks. This widening spectrum of risk poses a difficult question to every community – how resilient will the community be to the extreme events it faces. In this paper, we present a new approach to answering that question. It is based on the stress testing of financial institutions required by regulators in the United States and elsewhere. It generalizes stress testing by expanding the concept of “capital” beyond finance to include the other “capitals” (e.g., human, social) possessed by a community. Through use of this approach, communities can determine which investments of its capitals are most likely to improve its resilience. We provide an example of using the approach, and discuss its potential benefits.

scholarly journals Projections of Local Knowledge-Based Adaptation Strategies of Mexican Coffee Farmers

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Patricia Ruiz-García ◽  
Cecilia Conde-Álvarez ◽  
Jesús David Gómez-Díaz ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Coffee Farmers ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Adaptation Policies

Local knowledge can be a strategy for coping with extreme events and adapting to climate change. In Mexico, extreme events and climate change projections suggest the urgency of promoting local adaptation policies and strategies. This paper provides an assessment of adaptation actions based on the local knowledge of coffee farmers in southern Mexico. The strategies include collective and individual adaptation actions that farmers have established. To determine their viability and impacts, carbon stocks and fluxes in the system’s aboveground biomass were projected, along with water balance variables. Stored carbon contents are projected to increase by more than 90%, while maintaining agroforestry systems will also help serve to protect against extreme hydrological events. Finally, the integration of local knowledge into national climate change adaptation plans is discussed and suggested with a local focus. We conclude that local knowledge can be successful in conserving agroecological coffee production systems.

scholarly journals When rebuilding no longer means recovery: the stress of staying put after Hurricane Sandy

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liz Koslov ◽  
Alexis Merdjanoff ◽  
Elana Sulakshana ◽  
Eric Klinenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Flood Insurance ◽  
Health Consequences ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
Post Disaster

AbstractAfter a disaster, it is common to equate repopulation and rebuilding with recovery. Numerous studies link post-disaster relocation to adverse social, economic, and health outcomes. However, there is a need to reconsider these relationships in light of accelerating climate change and associated social and policy shifts in the USA, including the rising cost of flood insurance, the challenge of obtaining aid to rebuild, and growing interest in “managed retreat” from places at greatest risk. This article presents data from a survey of individuals who opted either to rebuild in place or relocate with the help of a voluntary home buyout after Hurricane Sandy. Findings show those who lived in buyout-eligible areas and relocated were significantly less likely to report worsened stress than those who rebuilt in place. This suggests access to a government-supported voluntary relocation option may, under certain circumstances, lessen the negative mental health consequences associated with disaster-related housing damage.

scholarly journals Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (19) ◽  
pp. 4155
Author(s):  
Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Díaz-Palmero ◽  
de Dios Cabezas-Cerezo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.

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