scholarly journals Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (19) ◽  
pp. 4155
Author(s):  
Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Díaz-Palmero ◽  
de Dios Cabezas-Cerezo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

scholarly journals Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Thermal Comfort in A Building Category: The Case of Linear-type Social Housing Stock in Southern Spain

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rocío Escandón ◽  
Rafael Suárez ◽  
Juan José Sendra ◽  
Fabrizio Ascione ◽  
Nicola Bianco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Linear Type ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

The Climate Change scenario projected by the IPCC for the year 2050 predicts noticeable increases in temperature. In severe summer climates, such as the Mediterranean area, this would have very negative effects on thermal comfort in the existing housing stock, given the current high percentage of dwellings which are obsolete in energy terms and house a population at serious risk of energy poverty. The main aim of this paper is to generate a predictive model in order to assess the impact of this future climate scenario on thermal comfort conditions in an entire building category. To do so, calibrated models representing linear-type social multi-family buildings, dating from the post-war period and located in southern Spain, will be simulated extensively using transient energy analyses performed by EnergyPlus. In addition, a sensitivity analysis will be performed to identify the most influential parameters on thermal discomfort. The main results predict a generalized deterioration in indoor thermal comfort conditions due to global warming, increasing the average percentage of discomfort hours during the summer by more than 35%. This characterization of the future thermal behaviour of the residential stock in southern Spain could be a trustworthy tool for decision-making in energy retrofitting projects which are so badly needed. To do so, further work is required on some limitations of this model so that different user profiles and typologies can be represented in detail and an economic assessment can be included.

scholarly journals The effect of climate anomalies and human ignition factor on wildfires in Russian boreal forests

2007 ◽  
Vol 363 (1501) ◽  
pp. 2329-2337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Achard ◽  
Hugh D Eva ◽  
Danilo Mollicone ◽  
René Beuchle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Buffer Zone ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Areal Extent ◽  
Human Disturbances ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Over the last few years anomalies in temperature and precipitation in northern Russia have been regarded as manifestations of climate change. During the same period exceptional forest fire seasons have been reported, prompting many authors to suggest that these in turn are due to climate change. In this paper, we examine the number and areal extent of forest fires across boreal Russia for the period 2002–2005 within two forest categories: ‘intact forests’ and ‘non-intact forests’. Results show a far lower density of fire events in intact forests (5–14 times less) and that those events tend to be in the first 10 km buffer zone inside intact forest areas. Results also show that, during exceptional climatic years (2002 and 2003), fire event density is twice that found during normal years (2004 and 2005) and average areal extent of fire events (burned area) in intact forests is 2.5 times larger than normal. These results suggest that a majority of the fire events in boreal Russia are of human origin and a maximum of one-third of their impact (areal extension) can be attributed to climate anomalies alone, the rest being due to the combined effect of human disturbances and climate anomalies.

Effect of climate change on wildfires in Fennoscandia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leif Backman ◽  
Tuula Aalto ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Tiina Markkanen ◽  
Laura Thölix ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Model Domain ◽  
Projected Change

<p>The climate in the Boreal area is warming at a pace that is exceeding the global average. Both temperature and precipitation is projected to increase due to climate change. The gross primary production in the forested area is also projected to increase, as well as the soil respiration. The burned area is sensitive to the meteorological forcing and the risk of ignition depends on the amount and properties of the litter. Overall climate change has a potential to increase the fire risk in the Boreal forests.</p><p>The effects of projected climate change on forest fires in Fennoscandia, and in parts of Russia adjacent to Finland, were simulated with the JSBACH-SPITFIRE. JSBACH is the land model in the Earth system models of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology. SPITFIRE is a mechanistic fire model, driven by meteorology, vegetation cover, fuel load and fuel properties. The model simulates fire risk, number of fires and burned area fraction. SPITFIRE uses ignition rates and distinguishes between ignition events caused by lightning and humans. Ignition events result in fire only when enough fuel is present, and the fuel is sufficiently dry. The JSBACH-SPITFIRE model was driven by downscaled and bias corrected meteorological data from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, for the period from 1951 to 2100. The model domain was the land area within 55-71°N and 5-38°E. A subset of the EUR-44 domain was regridded to 0.5° resolution for our model domain. The global driving models used for producing the EURO-CORDEX data used here were CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5. We selected driver models that represent mid-range regarding the projected change in temperature and precipitation for Finland under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used daily bias corrected data of precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections. In addition, daily data of relative humidity, wind speed, longwave and shortwave radiation were used for the historical (1951-2005) and scenario period (2006-2100).</p><p>Preliminary results indicate that the increase in temperature, which affects the drying rate of the fuel, is the major factor for driving the changes in forest fires in the simulations.</p>

scholarly journals Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Le Page ◽  
Douglas Morton ◽  
Hartin Corinne ◽  
Bond-Lamberty Ben ◽  
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation of long term forest fires in India with respect to state administrative boundary, forest category of LULC and future climate change scenario: A Geospatial Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-343
Author(s):  
Firoz Ahmad ◽  
Md Meraj Uddin ◽  
Laxmi Goparaju
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract Analysing the forest fires events in climate change scenario is essential for protecting the forest from further degradation. Geospatial technology is one of the advanced tools that has enormous capacity to evaluate the number of data sets simultaneously and to analyse the hidden relationships and trends. This study has evaluated the long term forest fire events with respect to India’s state boundary, its seasonal monthly trend, all forest categories of LULC and future climate anomalies datasets over the Indian region. Furthermore, the spatial analysis revealed the trend and their relationship. The state wise evaluation of forest fire events reflects that the state of Mizoram has the highest forest fire frequency percentage (11.33%) followed by Chhattisgarh (9.39%), Orissa (9.18%), Madhya Pradesh (8.56%), Assam (8.45%), Maharashtra (7.35%), Manipur (6.94%), Andhra Pradesh (5.49%), Meghalaya (4.86%) and Telangana (4.23%) when compared to the total country’s forest fire counts. The various LULC categories which represent the forest show some notable forest fire trends. The category ‘Deciduous Broadleaf Forest’ retain the highest fire frequency equivalent to 38.1% followed by ‘Mixed Forest’ (25.6%), ‘Evergreen Broadleaf Forest’ (16.5%), ‘Deciduous Needle leaf Forest’ (11.5%), ‘Shrub land’ (5.5%), ‘Evergreen Needle leaf Forest’ (1.5%) and ‘Plantations’ (1.2%). Monthly seasonal variation of forest fire events reveal the highest forest fire frequency percentage in the month of ‘March’ (55.4%) followed by ‘April’ (28.2%), ‘February’ (8.1%), ‘May’ (6.7%), ‘June’ (0.9%) and ‘January’ (0.7%). The evaluation of future climate data for the year 2030 shows significant increase in forest fire seasonal temperature and abrupt annual rainfall pattern; therefore, future forest fires will be more intensified in large parts of India, whereas it will be more crucial for some of the states such as Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Assam and in the lower Sivalik range of Himalaya. The deciduous forests will further degrade in future. The highlight/results of this study have very high importance because such spatial relationship among the various datasets is analysed at the country level in view of the future climate scenario. Such analysis gives insight to the policymakers to make sustainable future plans for prioritization of the various state forests suffering from forest fire keeping in mind the future climate change scenario.

scholarly journals Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1237-1246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Le Page ◽  
Douglas Morton ◽  
Corinne Hartin ◽  
Ben Bond-Lamberty ◽  
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

scholarly journals Brief communication Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970–2010, NE Spain)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 649-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Turco ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
A. Tudela ◽  
X. Castro ◽  
A. Provenzale
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Fire Detection ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Prevention ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Ne Spain

Abstract. We analyse the recent evolution of fires in Catalonia (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula), a typical Mediterranean region. We examine a homogeneous series of forest fires in the period 1970–2010. During this period, more than 9000 fire events greater than 0.5 ha were recorded, and the total burned area was more than 400 kha. Our analysis shows that both the burned area and number of fire series display a decreasing trend. Superposed onto this general decrease, strong oscillations on shorter time scales are evident. After the large fires of 1986 and 1994, the increased effort in fire prevention and suppression could explain part of the decreasing trend. Although it is often stated that fires have increased in Mediterranean regions, the higher efficiency in fire detection could have led to spurious trends and misleading conclusions.

Wildfires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Leif Backman ◽  
Timo Virtanen ◽  
Tero Partanen ◽  
Ilari Lehtonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Wide Range

<p>In recent years, large forest fires in Fennoscandia have shown that wildfires can have a strong impact on society also in northern Europe. In the future, meteorological conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for wildfires due to climate change. An important aspect in fire management are the national forest management strategies that play a crucial role in controlling e.g. fuel availability in forests, and further areal coverage of burned area. In addition, the effectiveness of rescue services is crucial. Thus, the development of fire risk prediction and fire detection systems, as well as, modeling of spread of fires and emissions of harmful ingredients, such as black carbon are urgently required to improve the societies preparedness to the increasing thread. In this presentation we synthetize the current state-of-the-art understanding of wildfires in Fennoscandia from a wide range of key perspectives: historical fire regimes, monitoring using in-situ and remote-sensing technologies, integrated modeling (e.g. climate models, spatial fire propagation models forced with operational weather forecast model) and fire suppression. In addition, we assess the amount of black carbon emissions released from recent wildfires in Fennoscandia. These results will help northern societies to tackle against the negative impacts of climate change and to support the development of efficient mitigation strategies. In the upcoming decades the effective management of wildfires is especially relevant, as wildfires greatly affect regional carbon budgets and mitigation efforts. </p>

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