Climate Change in Himalayas: Research Findings and Complexities

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 01-13
Author(s):  
Surendra P. Singh ◽  
Surabhi Gumber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Transboundary Cooperation ◽  
Translational Ecology ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Water Springs

Himalayas are important for its influence on the climate of much of Asia, and ecosystem services, which serve some 1.3 billion people living in 10 river basins that originate from the region. The region is warming rapidly and is highly vulnerable to climate change. This review (i) sheds light on some fairly well established facts about climate change in Himalayas, (ii) makes an attempt to give an integrated picture of its impact on various components, and (iii) discusses complexities in generalizing the findings. Himalayas are warming at 2-3 time higher rates than global average rate, at least in some areas. The rate of warming is increasing in time and with elevation. As for rainfall, uncertainty is high, but generally predictions are for more violent events. According to an analysis based on 75 glaciers, 63 glaciers are showing shrinkage and 12 growth, however, their (growing ones) measurements are of low confidence level. The contribution of glacier and snow melt to total river discharge varies from 5-60% from west to east. Violent extreme events and glacier melt lakes are predicted to generate more disasters. The intensification of pre-monsoon drought is likely to be a critical climate change factor, affecting several ecological processes and social behaviour. Its examples are drying of water springs, suppression of treeline and desiccation of seeds of the species in which seeds remain lying on ground for a relatively longer period before conditions for germination become favourable, and spread of forest fires. The intensified water shortage is a threat even to tourism supporting capacity of the region. Apple cultivation in the state of Himachal Pradesh is getting adversely affected by the lack of sufficient winter-chilling. Some interventions are possible to undertake to address climate change impact. They include addressing data gaps, particularly with regard to changes in glacier ice mass, volumes and timing of river flows, frequency and duration of extreme events, transboundary cooperation, and development of translational ecology research in which scientists work in a close partnership with stakeholders and administrators. The Himalayan region is disproportionately affected by climate change induced disasters and miseries, though the region's per capita fossil fuel consumption is ridiculously low, raising a issue of climate change justice.

scholarly journals Forschung zu Wald und Klimawandel in Mitteleuropa: eine Werkschau

2014 ◽  
Vol 165 (2) ◽  
pp. 27-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Wohlgemuth ◽  
Peter Brang ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Andreas Rigling ◽  
Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Conference Report ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Pest Outbreaks ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
New Research

Research on forests and climate change in Central Europe: state of the art How are trees in Central European forests affected by climate change, yesterday, today and tomorrow? To answer this question, 250 researchers met for the international conference “ClimTree 2013” that took place in Zurich in September 2013. The answers are manifold and confirm that knowledge on this subject is not fully consolidated yet. Nevertheless, there is agreement on the two most important factors causing marked changes: aggravated water shortage during the growing season leading to growth and regeneration changes and inducing mortality, and rising temperatures that accelerate both biotic and abiotic processes, in particular pest outbreaks and forest fires. The question which tree species will dominate under future climatic conditions is lively debated due to novel results from experiments and dendroecological studies that have only partially been considered in forest succession models to date. Thus, the discussion on a next generation of such models has started. The present conference report summarizes the state of the art as well as new research questions in this field.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and future pandemics: a global systems approach and relevance to SDGs

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tharanga Thoradeniya ◽  
Saroj Jayasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Rna Virus ◽  
Modern Human ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
World Population ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Physical Environments ◽  
Corporate Interests

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is adversely impacting modern human civilization. A global view using a systems science approach is necessary to recognize the close interactions between health of animals, humans and the environment. Discussion A model is developed initially by describing five sequential or parallel steps on how a RNA virus emerged from animals and became a pandemic: 1. Origins in the animal kingdom; 2. Transmission to domesticated animals; 3. Inter-species transmission to humans; 4. Local epidemics; 5. Global spread towards a pandemic. The next stage identifies global level determinants from the physical environments, the biosphere and social environment that influence these steps to derive a generic conceptual model. It identifies that future pandemics are likely to emerge from ecological processes (climate change, loss of biodiversity), anthropogenic social processes (i.e. corporate interests, culture and globalization) and world population growth. Intervention would therefore require modifications or dampening these generators and prevent future periodic pandemics that would reverse human development. Addressing issues such as poorly planned urbanization, climate change and deforestation coincide with SDGs such as sustainable cities and communities (Goal 11), climate action (Goal 13) and preserving forests and other ecosystems (Goal 15). This will be an added justification to address them as global priorities. Some determinants in the model are poorly addressed by SDGs such as the case of population pressures, cultural factors, corporate interests and globalization. The overarching process of globalization will require modifications to the structures, processes and mechanisms of global governance. The defects in global governance are arguably due to historical reasons and the neo-liberal capitalist order. This became evident especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 when the vaccination roll-out led to violations of universal values of equity and right to life by some of the powerful and affluent nations. Summary A systems approach leads us to a model that shows the need to tackle several factors, some of which are not adequately addressed by SDGs and require restructuring of global governance and political economy.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

Stress Testing to Assess Recovery from Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. John Plodinec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Potential Benefits

Abstract Over the last decade, communities have become increasingly aware of the risks they face. They are threatened by natural disasters, which may be exacerbated by climate change and the movement of land masses. Growing globalization has made a pandemic due to the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases ever more likely. Societal discord breeds its own threats, not the least of which is the spread of radical ideologies giving rise to terrorism. The accelerating rate of technological change has bred its own social and economic risks. This widening spectrum of risk poses a difficult question to every community – how resilient will the community be to the extreme events it faces. In this paper, we present a new approach to answering that question. It is based on the stress testing of financial institutions required by regulators in the United States and elsewhere. It generalizes stress testing by expanding the concept of “capital” beyond finance to include the other “capitals” (e.g., human, social) possessed by a community. Through use of this approach, communities can determine which investments of its capitals are most likely to improve its resilience. We provide an example of using the approach, and discuss its potential benefits.

scholarly journals Projections of Local Knowledge-Based Adaptation Strategies of Mexican Coffee Farmers

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Patricia Ruiz-García ◽  
Cecilia Conde-Álvarez ◽  
Jesús David Gómez-Díaz ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Coffee Farmers ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Adaptation Policies

Local knowledge can be a strategy for coping with extreme events and adapting to climate change. In Mexico, extreme events and climate change projections suggest the urgency of promoting local adaptation policies and strategies. This paper provides an assessment of adaptation actions based on the local knowledge of coffee farmers in southern Mexico. The strategies include collective and individual adaptation actions that farmers have established. To determine their viability and impacts, carbon stocks and fluxes in the system’s aboveground biomass were projected, along with water balance variables. Stored carbon contents are projected to increase by more than 90%, while maintaining agroforestry systems will also help serve to protect against extreme hydrological events. Finally, the integration of local knowledge into national climate change adaptation plans is discussed and suggested with a local focus. We conclude that local knowledge can be successful in conserving agroecological coffee production systems.

scholarly journals Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah T. Saalfeld ◽  
Brooke L. Hill ◽  
Christine M. Hunter ◽  
Charles J. Frost ◽  
Richard B. Lanctot
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Adequate Food

AbstractClimate change in the Arctic is leading to earlier summers, creating a phenological mismatch between the hatching of insectivorous birds and the availability of their invertebrate prey. While phenological mismatch would presumably lower the survival of chicks, climate change is also leading to longer, warmer summers that may increase the annual productivity of birds by allowing adults to lay nests over a longer period of time, replace more nests that fail, and provide physiological relief to chicks (i.e., warmer temperatures that reduce thermoregulatory costs). However, there is little information on how these competing ecological processes will ultimately impact the demography of bird populations. In 2008 and 2009, we investigated the survival of chicks from initial and experimentally-induced replacement nests of arcticola Dunlin (Calidris alpina) breeding near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We monitored survival of 66 broods from 41 initial and 25 replacement nests. Based on the average hatch date of each group, chick survival (up to age 15 days) from replacement nests (Ŝi = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.02–0.22) was substantially lower than initial nests (Ŝi = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48–0.81). Daily survival rates were greater for older chicks, chicks from earlier-laid clutches, and during periods of greater invertebrate availability. As temperature was less important to daily survival rates of shorebird chicks than invertebrate availability, our results indicate that any physiological relief experienced by chicks will likely be overshadowed by the need for adequate food. Furthermore, the processes creating a phenological mismatch between hatching of shorebird young and invertebrate emergence ensures that warmer, longer breeding seasons will not translate into abundant food throughout the longer summers. Thus, despite having a greater opportunity to nest later (and potentially replace nests), young from these late-hatching broods will likely not have sufficient food to survive. Collectively, these results indicate that warmer, longer summers in the Arctic are unlikely to increase annual recruitment rates, and thus unable to compensate for low adult survival, which is typically limited by factors away from the Arctic-breeding grounds.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Functional Zoning Concept under Climate Change to Expand the Portfolio of Adaptation Options

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Samuel Royer-Tardif ◽  
Jürgen Bauhus ◽  
Frédérik Doyon ◽  
Philippe Nolet ◽  
Nelson Thiffault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Multiple Use ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Good Communication ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Functional Zoning ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adaptation Options

Climate change is threatening our ability to manage forest ecosystems sustainably. Despite strong consensus on the need for a broad portfolio of options to face this challenge, diversified management options have yet to be widely implemented. Inspired by functional zoning, a concept aimed at optimizing biodiversity conservation and wood production in multiple-use forest landscapes, we present a portfolio of management options that intersects management objectives with forest vulnerability to better address the wide range of goals inherent to forest management under climate change. Using this approach, we illustrate how different adaptation options could be implemented when faced with impacts related to climate change and its uncertainty. These options range from establishing ecological reserves in climatic refuges, where self-organizing ecological processes can result in resilient forests, to intensive plantation silviculture that could ensure a stable wood supply in an uncertain future. While adaptation measures in forests that are less vulnerable correspond to the traditional functional zoning management objectives, forests with higher vulnerability might be candidates for transformative measures as they may be more susceptible to abrupt changes in structure and composition. To illustrate how this portfolio of management options could be applied, we present a theoretical case study for the eastern boreal forest of Canada. Even if these options are supported by solid evidence, their implementation across the landscape may present some challenges and will require good communication among stakeholders and with the public.

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