This study relates agricultural income and agricultural carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the context of environmental Kuznets curves for South Africa. We posit likely relationships between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 1, 2 and 13, relating food production to climate change action. CO2 emissions, income, coal energy consumption and electricity energy consumption time series data from 1990 to 2012 within the South African agricultural sector were used. The autoregressive distributive lag bounds-test and the error correction model were used to analyse the data. The results show long-run relationships. However, agricultural income was only significant in the linear and squared models. Changes in agricultural CO2 emissions from the short run towards the long run are estimated at 71.9%, 124.7% and 125.3% every year by the linear, squared and cubic models, respectively. Exponentially increasing agricultural income did not result in a decrease in agricultural CO2 emissions, which is at odds with the Kuznets hypothesis. The study concludes that it will be difficult for South Africa to simultaneously achieve SDGs 1, 2 and 13, especially given that agriculture is reliant upon livestock production, the largest CO2 emitter in the sector. The sector needs to shift to renewable energy consumption with fewer CO2 emissions.
A Bayesian approach towards facilitating climate change adaptation research on the South African agricultural sector
