Factors Determining the Exchange Rate Movement under a Partial Capital Mobility Regime

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrushikesh Mallick
2007 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Allegret ◽  
Mohamed Ayadi ◽  
Leila Haouaoui

During the 90s emerging markets have been hit by recurrent exchange rate crises. Almost all these countries shared a common characteristic: they adopted in previous years soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. International institutions and academic economists interpreted this intrinsic fragility of soft pegs as a consequence of the increasing international capital mobility. From this perspective, the exchange-rate regime is seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark trade-off among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Soft pegs seem incompatible with international financial integration. As a result, a new consensus appeared: the choice of domestic authorities is limited to corner solutions: hard pegs on the one side; independent floating on the other side. This paper proposes a contribution to the analysis of exchange rate regimes choice by emerging markets. The new consensus is questioned by considering that emerging countries are confronted not in the choice between extreme solutions, but rather with the choice of the degree of fixity- or the degree of flexibility- of the exchange rate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-26
Author(s):  
Fisayo Fagbemi ◽  
Olufemi Solomon Olatunde

The paper offers empirical justifications for the instrumentality of external sector in influencing the fiscal position of a country through the exchange rate. In the study, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration analysis is adopted to examine the long run and short run relationship between exchange rate and fiscal performance in Nigeria. The validity of the findings is based on time series data between 1981 and 2017. The emerging evidence reveals that the exchange rate movement has a substantial influence on the fiscal performance, as there exists a significant adverse relationship between exchange rate and fiscal deficit in the long run as well as in the short run, while the association between exchange rate and public debt is found to be significantly positive in both periods. Empirical elucidations posit that an appreciation of the exchange rate could lead to decreasing fiscal deficits. However, the exchange rate appreciation might not induce a reduction in public debt, as it could stimulate demand for loanable funds by the government, although such effect could be mitigated through strategic investment policy and subsidized funding schemes to aid domestic production. Given that fiscal performance is considerably driven or constrained by the exchange rate movement, the study suggests that developing a strategic framework for ensuring a realistic exchange rate and the mitigation of regular fluctuations or correcting inappropriate exchange rate is crucial.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Hadi Ilman

In 1997 Indonesia was hit by a severe financial crisis which led to the change of almost everything in the country, including the exchange rate regime; from managed floating to free floating or flexible exchange rate. It has been a major conclusion from academic debate that maintaining exchange rate at a certain level or band (soft peg) was no longer workable in the more integrated financial system, international market, and free flow of capital mobility across economy.Indonesia once was known as one of the “Asian Tigers” which were believed to be the next industrialized economies as was being indicated by astounding macroeconomic performance since the early 1990s. The exchange rate management, in which the objective was to have a competitiveness in the international market, was making a huge contribution to that performance. No one suspected those countries would be hit by the crisis until Thailand’s Bath was under attacked and suddenly it spread expeditiously to other economies.Domestically, economy of Indonesia was funded by foreign debt in the several years before crisis to leverage the economy, especially private sector. Thus, when the currency crisis was happening, the value of rupiah was depreciated so much and the central bank could not afford to stabilize the value of rupiah in the market. Then a huge amount of the dollar-denominated short term debt was suspected to default since the debt value in rupiah was becoming very large.


2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-124
Author(s):  
Ayatullah Syafroni ◽  
Karyaman Mochtar

It is interesting to pay attention on exchage rate phenomenon. The movement of exchange rate has fret up space for the expanded model and their new variety based on theoretical and methodological issues.We apply the zone target model to explain the exchange rate movement in Indonesia during 1989-2002 in monthly basis data. We put special attention to the expectation process of the agent by confronting adaptive and rational expectation and also internalize the risk factor into the model.We found that rational expectation fit and much more be able to explain the exchange rate movement, risk averse agent and massive outflow of capital during the crisis in Indonesia. We test the robustness of our model by applying to VAR model, and the same result is conformed. This VAR specification also support the contagion effect hypothesis during the cirisis 1998.


2000 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Roberts Clark ◽  
Mark Hallerberg

The literature on global integration and national policy autonomy often ignores a central result from open economy macroeconomics: Capital mobility constrains monetary policy when the exchange rate is fixed and fiscal policy when the exchange rate is flexible. Similarly, examinations of the electoral determinants of monetary and fiscal policy typically ignore international pressures altogether. We develop a formal model to analyze the interaction between fiscal and monetary policymakers under various exchange rate regimes and the degrees of central bank independence. We test the model using data from OECD countries. We find evidence that preelectoral monetary expansions occur only when the exchange rate is flexible and central bank independence is low; preelectoral fiscal expansions occur when the exchange rate is fixed. We then explore the implications of our model for arguments that emphasize the partisan sources of macroeconomic policy and for the conduct of fiscal policy after economic and monetary union in Europe.


Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.


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