scholarly journals The impact of the exchange rate on the foreign trade imbalance during the economic crisis in the new EU member states and the Western Balkan countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 182-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloš Rajković ◽  
Predrag Bjelić ◽  
Danijela Jaćimović ◽  
Miroslav Verbič
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus D.W. Stoffels

In this study, the author addresses the intriguing, topical but little-studied question of whether the (old and new) EU Member States should, upon accession to the EU, be obliged to introduce the euro. To begin with, he examines—while deliberately ignoring the problematic exchange rate convergence criterion—whether introducing the euro should in principle be obligatory. After having answered this question in the affirmative, he takes a closer look at the exchange rate convergence criterion. He concludes that a country’s formal participation in the ERM II is a necessary but insufficient requirement for that country to meet the exchange rate convergence criterion. However, since ERM II membership is, for its part, voluntary, this also makes a country’s decision to introduce the euro completely voluntary. Accordingly, a Member State like Sweden is entitled to simply circumvent introducing the euro by simply refraining from participating in the ERM II. The author continuously refers to how different groups of Member States have been treated in the past with regard to them introducing the euro.


Author(s):  
Ovidiu Stoica ◽  
Angela Roman ◽  
Delia-Elena Diaconaşu

Our paper aims to analyse the dynamics of real economic convergence and the impact of several macroeconomic and institutional factors on this process, within the EU countries for the period 1995-2018. Employing cross-sectional and panel data techniques, this paper examines both the level and dynamics of absolute and conditional convergence within the EU28 countries and identifies key drivers of economic growth within the EU28 and subsequent groups (the EU15 versus New EU Member States group), by taking into consideration the impact of the recent global economic crisis. We find that the real convergence process is quite uneven and unstable over the 1995-2018 period. Our results confirm the negative effects of the recent global economic crisis on per capita GDP growth, suggesting a weakening of the convergence process at the EU28 level, especially at the level of New EU Member States. In addition, we find that investment, the openness of the economy and the quality of the institutional framework represent the main drivers of real convergence within the EU countries.


Author(s):  
Vivien A. Schmidt

This chapter examines the impact of Europeanization upon the national economies of European Union member states. It considers how successful the EU has been in promoting its goal of building a single European economy out of the diverse national economies of its member states; how much convergence has occurred among EU member states, and how much divergence remains; and what impact the economic crisis beginning in 2008 has had on the EU and its member states. To answer these questions, the chapter traces the development of Europe’s national economies from the post-war period until today. It also analyses the impact of globalization and Europeanization on post-war varieties of capitalism before concluding with reflections on future patterns of political economic development in the EU in light of the economic crisis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-154
Author(s):  
Zdenka Obuljen Zoričić ◽  
Boris Cota ◽  
Nataša Erjavec

AbstractDue to negotiations on accession to the EU, the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe went through the financial opening. In the pre-crisis period followed by high liquidity in global markets, most of the EU new member states experienced rapid credit growth, which conditioned the appreciation of the exchange rate. External imbalances and vulnerabilities built up. Countries experienced deterioration in their current accounts. This paper investigates the link between financial openness, real effective exchange rate, financial crisis and current account balance within the Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for 11 new European Union members during the period from 1999 to 2016. The results obtained by the use of pooled mean group estimator (PMG) show that in the long run, financial openness has a significant negative impact on the current account balance. In the short run, crisis significantly influences the current account balance having a positive sign.


2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-37
Author(s):  
Vladislavs Vesperis

Abstract In the context of the global financial-economic crisis it becomes important to find a stronger base for assessment of the socio-economic development and, in particular, search for better indicators. Therefore, the hypothesis is set that it is necessary to develop the EU Development Index, which will provide better assessment of an on-going socio-economic change. The objective of the article is to describe the EU Development Index calculation results and compare them with the Human Development Index values for each Member state of the EU. Ranking list of the EU Member States according to the Human Development Index values did not change substantially, suggesting that the Human Development Index inadequately responds to key socioenvironmental changes that occurred during the global financial economic crisis. At the same time, a number of countries show a sharp decline of the EU development index values, reflecting the impact of global economic crisis, while some countries with a high level of public debt and low confidence of the financial markets have remained in their positions by the both indexes in the year 2009. However, these countries most probably will be forced to make the considerable fiscal discipline measures, which inevitably will have an impact on GDP and income indicators in these countries, therefore their rankings in the coming years will deteriorate. Completely impartial assessment will be possible when countries with high debt levels will have balanced their budgets and economic growth will be based mostly on their own income and production instead of external cash flows and investment entering the country. It can be concluded that EU Development Index allows, in a more equitable fashion, to assess disparities of the EU Member States by development level and more rapidly reflect the rapid socio-economic change.


2021 ◽  
Vol 03 (05) ◽  
pp. 281-293
Author(s):  
Abeer Muhammad JASSIM

The exchange rate is one of the important tools that are used to protect ‎the local economy from expected shocks, so the research focused on the ‎subject of the impact of this variable on the balance of payments ‎because these two variables have a very close relationship, which ‎consequently affects foreign trade and the structure of the national ‎economy, especially in Iraq, and contributes to treating various ‎imbalances of the local economy and restore balance and stability to ‎most of its associated variables. Keywords: Economy, Iraqi Balance, Local Economy


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Nargiza Alymkulova ◽  
Junus Ganiev

Purpose The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial economic crisis on the transition economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. As there is a low level of the Kyrgyz Republic’s integration into the global financial and economic processes, it is obvious that channels of transmissions are different. Design/methodology/approach The empirical model is the vector autoregression approach. The quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 of the remittances from abroad, trade volumes, exchange rates, credits, deposits and liquidity of the banking system, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were used in the empirical analysis. Findings The authors found a significant positive relation between transmission channels such as remittances flow, banking sector, international trade and GDP within the first six months. Thus, a decline in the aforementioned variables has a significant affirmative effect on the country’s GDP. Notwithstanding, the exchange-rate channel adversely influences GDP. Thereby, the depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in GDP. Originality/value The study findings allow the Kyrgyz policymakers to foresee the global crisis transmission through the primary channels of transmission mechanism. Nevertheless, a decrease of the deposit level by 1 per cent leads to 2.91 per cent decline in FDI inflows. On the contrary, an increase of the exchange rate by 1 per cent leads to 1.54 per cent decrease in imports.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document