Distinguishing ecological outcomes of pathways in Grain for Green Program in the subtropical areas of China
Abstract Effective forestation policies are urgently required across the globe under the initiative of UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Rather than simply planting trees, such initiatives involve complex components of societal and biophysical systems. However, the underlying pathways by which forestation influences the ecological outcomes are not well understood, especially lacking a unified quantification framework. In this study, such a framework was developed to reveal the pathways in which reforestation programs influenced ecological outcomes through identifying the linkages among reforestation efforts, societal changes, land system changes, and ecological outcomes. The framework was applied in the reforestation program of Grain for Green Program (GFGP), to explore that how the GFGP influenced vegetation dynamics and ecosystem functioning in Guizhou Province of China through direct and indirect pathways. Two independent remote-sensing-based indicators: the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and gross primary production (GPP), obtained from the Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) fine resolution dataset GOSIF, were combined with inventory data and land use maps to detect changes in social and ecological outcomes. Using the Structural Equation Model (SEM) to perform the framework, the results showed that the GFGP positively contributed to the increasing greenness and GPP of the study area through the direct conservation pathway. Although the implementation of GFGP encouraged outmigration and led to a decrease in farmland area, GFGP on greenness and GPP showed negative indirect effects because of the difficulty of reforestation during land-use conversion from farmland to forest land. This study revealed divergent impacts of the reforestation program through multiple pathways, which could provide valuable information for other parts of the globe to design ecological restoration policies more precisely.