Forecast of Shanghai Port Throughput Based on ARIMA

Modelling and forecasting port throughput enables stakeholders to make efficient decisions ranging from management of port development, to infrastructure investments, operational restructuring and tariffs policy. Accurate forecasting of port throughput is also critical for long-term resource allocation and short-term strategic planning. In turn, efficient decision-making enhances the competitiveness of a port. However, in the era of big data we are faced with the enviable dilemma of having too much information. We pose the question: is more information always better for forecasting? We suggest that more information comes at the cost of more parameters of the forecasting model that need to be estimated. We comparemultiple forecasting models of varying degrees of complexity and quantify the effect of the amount of data on model forecasting accuracy. Our methodology serves as a guideline for practitioners in this field. We also enjoin caution that even in the era of big data more information may not always be better. It would be advisable for analysts to weigh the costs of adding more data: the ultimate decision would depend on the problem, amount of data and the kind of models being used.

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Konektivitas Pelabuhan Dan Pembangunan Ekonomi Daerah Provinsi Maluku Utara

JFRES Journal of Fiscal Regional And Economy Studies ◽

10.36883/jfres.v2i2.19 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 34-41

Author(s):

Yetty Yetty ◽

Abdurrahman Senuk ◽

Chairullah Amin

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Local Economic Development ◽

Local Development ◽

Random Effect ◽

Random Effect Model ◽

Container Port ◽

Effect Model ◽

Port Throughput ◽

Development Approach ◽

The Impact

The local development approach based on islands is different with the developing of land area. The natural limitations possessed by the islands region that constrained by some characteristics such as isolation, smallness, boundless, and fragmentation. The study analyzes the impact of port connectivity to the local economic development by taking the case in the island province (North Maluku) in east Indonesia. The analysis method using the panel data model of 9 residences in period 2010-2016 in which the indicators that used are GDP, roadway, port throughput, economic density, and also container port, sea-tollway as the dummy variables. According to the common effect, model shows that all independent variables have a significant influence on the GDP except roadway. While based on Hausman test suggest that random effect model is more appropriated than FEM of which the result shows that container port and sea-tollway have not a significant impact on the GDP. These results implied that the policy of port connectivity within sea-tollway is not effective to improve the local economic development in particular in the islands based on region.

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Application of the Novel GM (1,1) Power Model for Forecasting the Port Throughput

2012 Fifth International Conference on Information and Computing Science ◽

10.1109/icic.2012.13 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

Hong Mo ◽

Zhengxing Wang

Keyword(s):

Power Model ◽

The Novel ◽

Port Throughput

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COMPARISON OF UNSTEADY REYNOLDS-AVERAGED NAVIER-STOKES PREDICTION OF SELF-PROPELLED CONTAINER SHIP SQUAT AGAINST EMPIRICAL METHODS AND BENCHMARK DATA

The International Journal of Maritime Engineering ◽

10.5750/ijme.v162ia2.1131 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 162 (A2) ◽

Author(s):

Z Kok ◽

J T Duffy ◽

S Chai ◽

Y Jin

Keyword(s):

Water Depth ◽

High Speed ◽

Navier Stokes ◽

Container Ship ◽

Benchmark Data ◽

High Speeds ◽

Port Throughput ◽

Finite Water Depth ◽

Urans Cfd ◽

Effective Wake

The demand to increase port throughput has driven container ships to travel relatively fast in shallow water whilst avoiding grounding and hence, there is need for more accurate high-speed squat predictions. A study has been undertaken to determine the most suitable method to predict container ship squat when travelling at relatively high speeds (Frh ≥ 0.5) in finite water depth (1.1 ≤ h/T ≤ 1.3). The accuracy of two novel self-propelled URANS CFD squat model are compared with that of readily available empirical squat prediction formulae. Comparison of the CFD and empirical predictions with benchmark data demonstrates that for very low water depth (h/T < 1.14) and when Frh < 0.46; Barass II (1979), ICORELS (1980), and Millward’s (1992) formulae have the best correlation with benchmark data for all cases investigated. However, at relatively high speeds (Frh ≥ 0.5) which is achievable in deeper waters (h/T ≥ 1.14), most of the empirical formulae severely underestimated squat (7-49%) whereas the quasi-static CFD model presented has the best correlation. The changes in wave patterns and effective wake fraction with respect to h/T are also presented.

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Comparison of Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Prediction of Self-Propelled Container Ship Squat Against Empirical Methods and Benchmark Data

10.3940/rina.ijme.2020.a2.604 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 162 (A2) ◽

Author(s):

Z Kok ◽

J T Duffy ◽

S Chai ◽

Y Jin

Keyword(s):

Water Depth ◽

High Speed ◽

Navier Stokes ◽

Container Ship ◽

Benchmark Data ◽

High Speeds ◽

Port Throughput ◽

Finite Water Depth ◽

Urans Cfd ◽

Effective Wake

The demand to increase port throughput has driven container ships to travel relatively fast in shallow water whilst avoiding grounding and hence, there is need for more accurate high-speed squat predictions. A study has been undertaken to determine the most suitable method to predict container ship squat when travelling at relatively high speeds (Frh ≥ 0.5) in finite water depth (1.1 ≤ h/T ≤ 1.3). The accuracy of two novel self-propelled URANS CFD squat model are compared with that of readily available empirical squat prediction formulae. Comparison of the CFD and empirical predictions with benchmark data demonstrates that for very low water depth (h/T < 1.14) and when Frh < 0.46; Barass II (1979), ICORELS (1980), and Millward’s (1992) formulae have the best correlation with benchmark data for all cases investigated. However, at relatively high speeds (Frh ≥ 0.5) which is achievable in deeper waters (h/T ≥ 1.14), most of the empirical formulae severely underestimated squat (7-49%) whereas the quasi-static CFD model presented has the best correlation. The changes in wave patterns and effective wake fraction with respect to h/T are also presented.

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