Tradeoff between Default Risk and Efficiency Loss

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-114
Author(s):  
Jin Hyung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Bidding Strategy ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Reverse Auction ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Efficiency Loss ◽  
The One ◽  
High Penalty

Abstract The study characterizes an equilibrium bid function with three bidders in an average bid auction (ABA), where a winning bid is the one closest to an average of all submitted bids, when a cost overrun can occur, and an insolvent winner is penalized. First of all, every bidder bids an identical amount in the absence of the penalty. Meanwhile, when the penalty is charged high enough to prevent all bidders from breaching the contract due to cost overruns, either some bidders bid identically and the rest follow a strictly increasing bidding strategy, or all bidders place an identical bid. Based on the characterization, the ABA is compared to the first price reverse auction (FPA) in terms of a buyer’s benefit. The ABA could be more beneficial to the buyer without any penalty in spite of an insolvent winner’s default. If nobody defaults on his bid due to the high penalty, however, the FPA is good to the buyer. This result partly explains the rationale for the ABA in Italy. (JEL codes: C78, D82)

scholarly journals A BESPOKE APPROACH FOR RELATING MATERIAL WASTE TO COST OVERRUN IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Saidu ◽  
W Shakantu ◽  
A Adamu ◽  
I Anugwo
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Material ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Final Project

The problems of material waste and cost overruns are common in the construction industry. These problems occur at different stages of a construction project, from planning, design to project completion. The argument on how to eliminate cost overrun has been on-going for the past 70 years as on-site wastage of materials leads to increase in the final project cost. This paper examines the relationship between the causes of material waste and those of cost overrun at the pre-contract and post-contract stages of a project. The desktop methodological approach was firstly adopted in comparing the causes of material waste and those of cost overruns from the literature, in order to determine the possible relationship. Subsequently, interviews were purposively conducted with construction professionals within Abuja, Nigeria, in order to verify the literature based information. The result reveals that all the causes of material waste also cause cost overrun at the pre-contract and the post-contract stages of a project. 96.88% and 81.81% of the causes of cost overrun also cause material waste at the pre-contract and post-contract stages respectively. Other causes which are not related are mostly, the micro-economic and macro-economic factors. These results are not different from those of the interviews conducted with professionals and summarised in the tick box. It was also found that to achieve Effective Construction Material Waste Management (ECMWM) for any construction project, material waste must be controlled at its sources and causes, and at different stages of a project. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that effective management of material waste would translate into a reduction in the level of project cost overrun. The study recommends that construction-project managers, as well as the construction practitioners should encourage the management of material-waste causes, as it has the potential to minimise cost overrun for projects. 

scholarly journals Delays and Cost Overruns Causes During Construction of Palm Oil Refinery Projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 02004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sani Abdullah ◽  
Wesam S Alaloul ◽  
Mohd Shahir Liew ◽  
Bashar S Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Planning And Scheduling ◽  
Important Index ◽  
Common Problems

Delays and cost overruns are obviously common problems in the construction industry in several developed and developing nations. The purpose of this study is to identify factors cause delays and cost overruns in the construction of palm oil refinery projects in Malaysia. A questionnaire survey of a randomly selected sample was filled by 89 respondents. The questionnaire included 179 factors which classified into 13 groups. The degree of importance of the delays and cost overrun factors were evaluated and ranked by importance degree, based on the viewpoints of stakeholders. The data was analytically investigated by descriptive statistic methods and Relative Important Index (RII). The results of RII showed that Delays in subcontractor’s work, Lack of subcontractor skill, and Poor/inadequate planning and scheduling with RII 0.78, 0.77, and 0.75, respectively, are the most important causes. These causes represent the baseline margin for project management of palm oil refinery construction and development. According to these results, it is suggested that: project client should collaborate with contractors and simplify payments procedures to mitigate delays; coordinate continuously and enhance the association among project stakeholders are obligatory in order to improve the project performance.

scholarly journals Toward a Systemic View to Cost Overrun Causation in Infrastructure Projects: A Review and Implications for Research

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui ◽  
Peter E. D. Love ◽  
Simon D. Smith ◽  
Fran Ackermann
Keyword(s):  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Popular Press ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Multiple Factors ◽  
High Level ◽  
Systemic View

Infrastructure cost overruns receive a significant amount of attention in the academic literature as well as the popular press. The methodological weaknesses in the dominant approaches adopted to explain cost overrun causation on infrastructure projects are explored in this article. A considerable amount of cost overrun research is superficial, replicative, and thus has stagnated the development of a robust theory to mitigate and contain the problem. Future research should move from single-cause identification and the traditional net-effect correlational analysis to a search for causal recipes through systems thinking and retrospective sensemaking to address the high-level interactions between multiple factors.

Predicting likelihood of cost overrun in educational projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ohene Asiedu ◽  
Nana Kena Frempong ◽  
Hans Wilhelm Alfen
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Contract Signing

Purpose Being able to predict the likelihood of a project to overrun its cost before the contract signing phase is crucial in developing the required mitigating measures to avert it. Known parameters that permit the timely prediction of cost overrun provide the basis for such predictions. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting cost overruns. Design/methodology/approach Ten predictive variables known before the contract signing phase of a project are identified. Based on a survey approach, information on 321 educational projects completed are compiled. A multiple linear regression analysis is adopted for the model development. Findings Five variables – initial contract sum, gross floor area, number of storeys, source of funds and contractors’ financial classification are observed to influence cost overruns. The model, however, yields a fairly weak coefficient of determination with a mean absolute percentage error of 30.22 and 138 per cent, respectively. Research limitations/implications The model developed focussed on data only educational projects sampled from three out of the ten administration regions in Ghana based on a purposive sampling approach. Practical implications Policy makers and construction managers working on public projects stand to gain tremendous assistance in formulating and strengthening their own in-house cost forecasting at the precontract phase based on “what if” analysis to generate various alternative predictions of cost overruns. Originality/value Considering the innate nature of cost overruns within the Ghanaian construction industry often resulting to project abandonment, this research presents a unique dimension for tackling cost overruns based on a predictive approach.

scholarly journals Contractor’s bid pricing strategy: a model with correlation among competitors’ prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Piotr Jaśkowski ◽  
Agata Czarnigowska
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Indirect Costs ◽  
Pricing Strategy ◽  
Bidding Strategy ◽  
Direct And Indirect Costs ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The One

AbstractThe approach used by construction companies to determine bid prices is an element of their strategy used to win jobs in competitive tenders. Such strategies build upon an analysis of the contactor’s potential and capabilities (am I able to deliver? am I eligible to participate in the tender?), and the analysis of the economic environment, including the expected behavior of competitors. The tender strategy sets out both the guidelines and the procedure in deciding whether or not to bid as well as the rules for determining the price. The price, on the one hand, should be high enough to cover expected direct and indirect costs as well as risk-adjusted profit. On the other hand, it needs to be low enough to be considered most attractive (typically: the lowest) among the prices offered by the competitors. The paper focuses on the price definition component of the bidding strategy. It provides a brief overview of the existing methods that support bidding decisions by comparing their demand for input and limitations in practical applications and presents a simulation-based method supporting the determination of the profit ratio. This probabilistic method assumes the existence of a positive correlation between the prices offered by the competitors. Its application is illustrated by means of a numerical example. The outcomes of the simulation prompt the amount of the profit margin that maximizes the expected value of the contractor’s profit.

scholarly journals Cost Overrun Causative Factors in Road Infrastructure Projects: A Frequency and Importance Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 5506
Author(s):  
Rodrigo F. Herrera ◽  
Omar Sánchez ◽  
Karen Castañeda ◽  
Hernán Porras
Keyword(s):  
Project Planning ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Design Changes ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
Evidence Collection ◽  
Importance Analysis

Road infrastructure projects are essential for a country’s economic and social development. Due to the magnitude, the projects are associated with considerable economic investments that in the case of failure can seriously affect regions’ economies. Despite the importance, roads from different countries are affected by cost overruns, hence, it is essential to identify and analyze the causative factors to focus the search for mitigation solutions. There are several studies focused on the cost factors identification, however, studies are lacking that synthesize and analyze the frequency and importance with which the factors have been reported to obtain a phenomenon overview. Therefore, this paper focuses on analyzing the frequency and importance with which cost overrun factors are reported in road projects. The research method consisted of a systematic review compound of five principal stages: (1) question formulation; (2) searching of relevant documents; (3) document selection; (4) evidence collection, analysis and synthesis; and (5) results’ report. Thirty-eight cost overrun factors were identified and classified into 14 categories. According to the Influence Index, the five most important and frequent cost overrun factors were: (1) failures in design, (2) price variation of materials, (3) inadequate project planning, (4) project scope changes, and (5) design changes.

Effect of factors of organizational structure influencing nonphysical waste in road projects of developing countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3135-3153
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Muhammad Sohail Anwar Malik ◽  
Syyed Sami Ul Haq Kaka Khel
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Organizational Structure ◽  
The Body ◽  
Management Support ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Road Projects ◽  
Significant Factors

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to rank the most significant factors of organizational structure that can reduce time and cost overruns (nonphysical waste) in road projects of the developing countries. Additionally, the effect of factors of organizational structure on nonphysical waste in road projects is also measured.Design/methodology/approachFactors of organizational structure causing time and cost overrun are extracted through a content analysis of the published literature. Moreover, a questionnaire survey is carried out involving 128 professionals to assess the effect of organizational structure factors on time and cost overrun. Finally, to obtain a more objective evaluation, relative importance index and regression analysis techniques are utilized, and the most severe factors influencing time and cost overrun are indicated.FindingsThis study found out that top management support and procurement procedures are the most significant factors influencing time and cost overruns in road projects of the developing countries.Originality/valueA small number of studies have been conducted to investigate the effect of factors of organizational structure on time and cost overrun in the construction industry. And even more, its relation with respect to road projects of the developing countries is limited. This research highlights the effect of most significant factors of organizational structure that influence the nonphysical waste in road projects of the developing countries. Therefore, this study adds to the body of knowledge by recommending that all the stakeholders of construction project should pay close attention toward these factors to control the enigma of time and cost overrun. It might also prove helpful, if implemented to its full extent, in all the road construction activities undertaken.

scholarly journals Cost Overruns in Tunnelling Projects: Investigating the Impact of Geological and Geotechnical Uncertainty Using Case Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Chrysothemis Paraskevopoulou ◽  
Georgios Boutsis
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Ground Investigation ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Tunnelling projects seldom meet the initial budget requirements. Commonly, these types of projects suffer from cost overruns, which subsequently lead to project delivery delays mainly due to unsuccessful ground investigation as specified in the literature. The presented work scrutinises the effect of ground investigation in cost overruns. More specifically, various cost figures (total cost, construction cost, tunnel cost) are analysed for two case studies i) the Channel tunnel in the UK and ii) the Olmos Tunnel in Peru. Clayton’s relation between ground investigation and the construction cost is utilised and further investigated. In the Channel tunnel, the main problems faced led to a cost overrun of 78% for the total cost, 66% for the construction cost and 77% for the tunnelling cost. In the Olmos tunnel, two main geological scenarios are analysed and the construction cost overrun is calculated at 9.6% and 6.7%. Drawing on the conclusions, this research work proves that ground investigation can be one of the major factors influencing the tunnel cost.

Latent geotechnical pathogens inducing cost overruns in highway projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alolote Ibim Amadi ◽  
Anthony Higham
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Delta Region ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Niger Delta Region ◽  
Geotechnical Risk

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the statistical validity of geotechnical risk factors in accounting for cost overruns in highway projects. The study hypothesises that “latent pathogens” because of mismanaged geotechnical risk, which lay dormant in organisational practices of highway agencies, trigger cost overruns. Design/methodology/approach To test this hypothesis, cost and geotechnical data gathered for 61 completed highway projects, executed in the Niger Delta, recording unusually high cost overruns, along with qualitative data from 16 interviews with the project commissioners, were comprehensively analysed via regression modelling, to statistically explain recorded cost variance. Findings The results provide empirical evidence supporting a cause–effect relationship between the extent of cost overrun and key geotechnical factors. It is suggested that positive changes made in the geotechnical practices of the highway agencies will produce an expected exponential decrease in the level of cost overruns recorded in highway projects. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to explaining the propagation of unusually high cost overruns in the geologic setting of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. As such there is a need to test the generalisability of the theory presented. Practical implications The emergent view of geotechnical practice calls for further research, necessary to align geotechnical best practice into highway project delivery in the Niger Delta region. Originality/value The study used a robust methodological approach to understanding the propagation of cost overruns in highway projects, based on a characterisation of geotechnical intricacies, which is unprecedented in cost overrun research.

scholarly journals Assessment of delay and cost-overrun in federal road construction project in Abuja

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1184
Author(s):  
Ashem Emmanuel Egila ◽  
Oluwaseun Abdulakeem Balogun ◽  
Saheed Olanrewaji Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Importance Index ◽  
The Government

Poor road infrastructure in Nigeria is a significant challenge, just like poverty, insecurity, and unemployment. The construction of road in the country is characterized by numerous challenges throughout the project life cycle. Some of these challenges are project delay and cost overrun, corruption and fraud, faulty contractual process among others. Objectives of this study are to identify factors influencing delays and cost overruns in road construction project, to rank these factors base on their impacts and importance, and to suggest conservative ways to address the future challenges that can result from delays and cost overruns of future road construction projects. The research instruments include in-depth literature review, fieldwork, questionnaire administration, and interview. Inferential statistics such as Relative importance index (RII) and Mean Value techniques were used to analyze collected data. The result of the study identified factors influencing delays and cost overruns in road construction projects as; man related, money-related, machine-related, material related, environmental-related, and method related factors. Analysis using RII and MV ranked man and money related as the highest factors for delay and cost overrun respectively. Hence, the research recommends that the Government should create an enabling environment, making suitable policy for the construction company to operate.

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