Predicting likelihood of cost overrun in educational projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ohene Asiedu ◽  
Nana Kena Frempong ◽  
Hans Wilhelm Alfen
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Contract Signing

Purpose Being able to predict the likelihood of a project to overrun its cost before the contract signing phase is crucial in developing the required mitigating measures to avert it. Known parameters that permit the timely prediction of cost overrun provide the basis for such predictions. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting cost overruns. Design/methodology/approach Ten predictive variables known before the contract signing phase of a project are identified. Based on a survey approach, information on 321 educational projects completed are compiled. A multiple linear regression analysis is adopted for the model development. Findings Five variables – initial contract sum, gross floor area, number of storeys, source of funds and contractors’ financial classification are observed to influence cost overruns. The model, however, yields a fairly weak coefficient of determination with a mean absolute percentage error of 30.22 and 138 per cent, respectively. Research limitations/implications The model developed focussed on data only educational projects sampled from three out of the ten administration regions in Ghana based on a purposive sampling approach. Practical implications Policy makers and construction managers working on public projects stand to gain tremendous assistance in formulating and strengthening their own in-house cost forecasting at the precontract phase based on “what if” analysis to generate various alternative predictions of cost overruns. Originality/value Considering the innate nature of cost overruns within the Ghanaian construction industry often resulting to project abandonment, this research presents a unique dimension for tackling cost overruns based on a predictive approach.

Parametric time overrun estimation of building projects

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ohene Asiedu ◽  
Nana Kena Frempong ◽  
Gabriel Nani
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Contract Signing

Purpose Time overruns are commonplace within the construction industry. These result in deception because project managers critically assess the economic and financial viability of a project before implementation. Forecasting the likelihood of time overruns will not only lead to a reconsideration on the decision to build but also help put in place the necessary control measures – exactly what this research achieved. Design/methodology/approach The paper argues that rather than depending on the critical failure factors that are unknown at the pre-contract stage to forecast the likelihood of occurrence, it will be more useful to rely on project attributes that are known before contract signing. A multiple linear regression analysis is used for the model development based on ten independent variables. Findings About 86.6 per cent of all the projects experienced time overruns. The mean time overrun is 106.5 per cent. Initial contract sum, initial duration, gross floor area, contractor class D2K2, competitive tendering, sole sourcing and single-storey buildings explained about 44.7 per cent of the variations within time overruns, with a mean absolute percentage error of 60.7 per cent. Research limitations/implications The predictive accuracy of the model can, in practice, be tested after the completion of a project by comparing the actual project schedule with the planned schedule. Any disparity in the expected outputs should result in a reassessment of the significant independent variables to improve the forecasting abilities of the model. Practical implications The model is expected to be very useful at the pre-contract stage when detailed designs are unavailable. As a decision support system, it will help the practitioners and decision-makers make informed decisions while minimizing the time and resources spent to arrive at these decisions. Originality/value This research presents a unique opportunity to forecast the likelihood of time overruns within the building sector based on project attributes that are known before the contract-signing phase.

scholarly journals Rethinking construction cost overruns: cognition, learning and estimation

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui ◽  
Simon D Smith
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Qualitative Exploration

Purpose – Drawing on mainstream arguments in the literature, the paper presents a coherent and holistic view on the causes of cost overruns, and the dynamics between cognitive dispositions, learning and estimation. A cost prediction model has also been developed using data mining for estimating final cost of projects. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed-method approach was adopted: a qualitative exploration of the causes of cost overrun followed by an empirical development of a final cost model using artificial neural networks. Findings – A conceptual model to distinguish between the often conflated causes of underestimation and cost overruns on large publicly funded projects. The empirical model developed in this paper achieved an average absolute percentage error of 3.67 percent with 87 percent of the model predictions within a range of ±5 percent of the actual final cost. Practical implications – The model developed can be converted to a desktop package for quick cost predictions and the generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project in a sort of what-if analysis for the purposes of comparison. The use of the model could also greatly reduce the time and resources spent on estimation. Originality/value – A thorough discussion on the dynamics between cognitive dispositions, learning and cost estimation has been presented. It also presents a conceptual model for understanding two often conflated issues of cost overrun and under-estimation.

IMPACT OF AIS AND STRESSED OUT AN EMPLOYEES TO THEIR PERFORMANCE AT PT EFRATA RETAILINDO

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Wiwit Ayu Retno Sari ◽  
Suhendro Suhendro ◽  
R. Riana Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Work Stress ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Accounting Information System ◽  
Accounting Information Systems

This research aims to test the influence of accounting information system and work stress on performance of employees of PT Efrata Retailindo. The type of research used in this research is quantitative research. The source of the data in the research is primary data. The population in this study are all employees of PT Efrata Retailindo totalling 47 people. Sampling techniques in the study using a purposive sample. While the data collection method used is to use the questionnaire to all employees of PT Efrata Retailindo. Data analysis techniques using multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the results of the study it can be concluded that work stress had no effect on performance of employees of PT Efrata Retailindo, while information systems accounting effect on the performance of the employees of PT Efrata Retailindo. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) amounting to 0.106. This indicates that variansi on a variable performance practice undertaken by the company PT Efrata Retailindo of 10.6% can be explained by work stress variables and accounting information systems, while the remaining 89.4% explained by other factors outside the researched.

PENGARUH KEPEMIMPINAN TRANSFORMASIONAL, KEPUASAN KERJA, KEPERCAYAAN KEPADA PEMIMPIN TERHADAP KETERIKATAN KERJA KARYAWAN PADA PT. BALI BIJAKSANA NUSA DUA – BALI

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 2455
Author(s):  
I Putu Dharmawan Pradhana ◽  
Putu Nova Kusuma Hendra
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Transformational Leadership ◽  
Employee Engagement ◽  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Trust In Leaders

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of transformational leadership, job satisfaction, trust in leaders on employee engagement at PT.Bali Bijaksana Nusa Dua – Bali. The number of samples in this study were 75 employees with a simple random sampling method. Data collection used questionnaire. The data analysis technique used is the classical assumption test, multiple linear regression analysis, t-test, F-test and test coefficient of determination. The results of the study show that there are positive and partial positive effects of transformational leadership, job satisfaction, and trust in leaders in increasing employee engagement at PT. Bali Bijaksana Nusa Dua – Bali. The results showed that the transformational leadership regression coefficient (X1) was 0.268 with a value that meant that each increase in transformational leadership variables could increase employee engagement at PT. Bali Bijaksana Nusa Dua – Bali. Job satisfaction regression coefficient (X2) is equal to 0.303, which means that every increase in job satisfaction variables can increase employee engagement at PT. Bali Bijaksana Nusa Dua – Bali. Regression coefficient value to leader (X3) is equal to 0.256, which means that every increase in the trust variable in the leader can increase employee engagement at PT. Bali Bijaksana Nusa Dua – Bali. As  the results of the determination coefficient of 0.657, its means that 65.7% can explain the model or influence of each variable on work engagement, while the rest (100% -65.7% = 34,3%) is explained by other reasons outside research model.

The Effect of Investments and Risk Based Capital (RBC) of Tabarru Funds on Company (Case Study of Sharia Insurance in Indonesia for 2014-2019)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-97
Author(s):  
Nana Diana ◽  
Tati Apriani
Keyword(s):  
Life Insurance ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
The Government

This study aims to examine the influence of investment returns and Risk Based Capital (RBC) Tabarru Funds to the profit of sharia life insurance in Indonesia from 2014-2019. This study The type of this research is quantitative research with descriptive verification as a method. This research method uses descriptive verification method with quantitative approach. The data used in this study were sourced from the financial statements of Islamic life insurance companies in Indonesia for the 2014-2019 period. Then the data obtained were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis and hypothesis testing consisting of t test and f test with the help of SPSS 21 software. The sampling technique uses non probability sampling with purposive sampling technique. Based on the results of the study it can be seen that the development of investment returns on Sharia Life Insurance in Indonesia has fluctuated and even suffered losses. While the development of Risk Based Capital (RBC) has increased and decreased but overall above 120% as determined by the government. Likewise, the profits earned in each year fluctuate. The results of statistical tests show that investment results partially have a positive effect on profit and Risk Based Capital (RBC) of Tabarru funds partially has a negative effect on profit. Simultaneously investment return and Risk Based Capital (RBC) affect on profit. In addition, the results of the coefficient of determination (R2) were obtained which obtained a value of 81%. This shows that the variable investment returns and Risk Based Capital (RBC) can affect earnings by 81% and the remaining 19% is influenced by other variables not used in this study.

PENGARUH KEPUASAN KERJA DAN KOMPETENSI TERHADAP KINERJA KARYAWAN PERUSAHAAN AIRNAV INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuridin Nurudin ◽  
Yuli Anggraini S
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Work Satisfaction ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
A Company

<em>One of the main determinants that influence the success rate of a company is employee performance. Efforts to improve employee performance, including by pay attention to work satisfaction and competence. This research was aimed to determine the effect of work satisfaction and competence to employees performance of AirNav Indonesia company. The population in this research were employess of AirNav Indonesia company at financial department were amounted to 387 people. The sample in this study were amounted to 80 employees using Slovin formula with random sampling technique. The method of data technique which used in the research was using multiple linear regression analysis, coefficient of determination and hypothesis test. Before being analyzed the instrument test was carried out. The results of this research can be known that work satisfaction and competence have a positive and significant influence to employees performance of AirNav Indonesia company.</em>

PENGARUH CITRA MEREK DAN KUALITAS PRODUK TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN PEMBELIAN MOBIL MITSUBISHI PADA PT. KRAMA YUDHA MOTORS AND MANFACTURING

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuridin, SE., MM. ◽  
Dwi Ardika Prayudha
Keyword(s):  
Product Quality ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Purchase Decision ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Image Variables

This research is aimed to examine the influence of brand image and product quality to car purchase decision at PT. Mitsubishi Krama Yudha Motors and Manufacturing. Data analysis method was used, is quantitative analysis, by using validity and reliability test, coefficient of determination, and multiple linear regression analysis. Result of regression equation is: Y = 0,665 + 0,517 X1 + 0,416 X2 Simultaneously testing of brand image variables and product quality to purchase decision, shown by F count equal to 85,955 bigger than F table 3,159 or with sig. F 0.000 is smaller than alpha 0.005. Based on the test results simultaneously, can be seen that the independent variables (brand image and product quality) have a positive and significant impact on the car purchase decision at Mitsubishi cars At PT. Krama Yudha Motors and Manufacturing. Suggestions which can be given for future developments and determinations of policy are, companies should pay attention to brand image, product quality, to make customers more satisfied and keep using Mitsubishi cars as their choice.

scholarly journals Modelling the Additivity of Perceived Exertion in Symmetric, Mid-Sagittal Lifting

1994 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 621-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian D. Lowe
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Exertion ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Perceived Effort ◽  
Repetitive Lifting ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Whole Body Exertion ◽  
Lifting Task

Psychophysical approaches to quantifying perceived effort have been used to evaluate the physical demand of many industrial work activities. An experiment was conducted to examine the relationship between ratings of whole-body perceived exertion and differentiated, regional ratings of exertion. The Borg, CR-10 scale was used by 16 subjects performing a simulated repetitive lifting task. Ratings of perceived exertion were obtained for the arms, legs, torso, and central (cardiorespiratory) effort sensations as well as a rating of overall, whole-body exertion. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to predict the whole-body rating of exertion from the differentiated ratings in lifting tasks using both a squat and stoop posture. In the stoop posture condition the coefficient of determination between whole-body perceived exertion and the model including arm, torso, and central ratings was R2=0.81. In the squat posture condition, the final regression model predicting whole-body exertion contained only the rating from the legs (R2 = 0.62). Differentiated ratings explained the majority of the variance in whole-body perceived exertion for squat and stoop lifting tasks.

scholarly journals PENGARUH WORKING CAPITAL TURNOVER (WCT), CURRENT RATIO (CR), DAN TOTAL ASSETS TURNOVER (TATO) TERHADAP PROFITABILITAS

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Melia Trie Utami ◽  
Gusganda Suria Manda
Keyword(s):  
Research Method ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Current Ratio ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the effect of Working Capital Turnover (WCT), Current Ratio (CR), and Total Assets Turnover (TATO) on Profitability with the Return On Assets (ROA) proxy on cigarette sub sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) quarterly in 2014-2019, both partially and simultaneously. The research method used is descriptive verification with quantitative approaches. The sample in this study used purposive sampling. The statistical method used is the method of multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that the Working Capital Turnover (WCT), Current Ratio (CR), and Total Assets Turnover (TATO) simultaneously had a significant effect on the Return on Assets (ROA) profitability. Partially Working Capital Turnover (WCT) has a significant negative effect on Return on Assets (ROA) profitability, Current Ratio (CR) has no effect on Return on Assets (ROA) Profitability, and Total Assets Turnover (TATO) has a significant positive effect on Return on Profitability Assets (ROA). The coefficient of determination obtained by 0.429 means that only 42.9% Profitability Return on Assets (ROA) is influenced by Working Capital Turnover (WCT), Current Ratio (CR), and Total Assets Turnover (TATO) and the rest 57.1 % is influenced by other variables.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Iklan Islami Terhadap Minat Beli Calon Konsumen Matahari Dept. Store di Jawa Tengah

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
Saifudin Saifudin
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Advertising Message ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Simultaneous Influence ◽  
Central Java Province

<p>The purpose of this research is to find out the influence of Islamic advertising (Islamic advertising messages, Islamic story illustrations and Muslim advertising stars) Mahatahari Dept. Store against the buying interest of prospective Mahatahari Dept. Store in Central Java. This research was conducted in Central Java Province with a sample size taken as many as 120 respondents with a purposive sampling method. Data was collected by distributing questionnaires using the Likert scale to measure 13 indicators. The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study found that Islamic advertising messages, illustrations of Islamic stories and Muslim advertising stars had a positive and significant effect on consumers' buying interest. Based on the calculation of the coefficient of determination, it can be explained that the simultaneous influence of Islamic advertising message variables, illustrations of Islamic stories and Muslim advertising stars on consumer buying interest. While the partial results of the illustrative variable of Islamic stories and Muslim advertising stars have a positive and significant effect on consumer buying interest, but Islamic advertising message variables have no effect on buying interest.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document