scholarly journals Contrasting the suitability of shade coffee agriculture and native forest as overwinter habitat for Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) in the Colombian Andes

The Condor ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 122 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana M González ◽  
Scott Wilson ◽  
Nicholas J Bayly ◽  
Keith A Hobson
Keyword(s):  
Body Condition ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Winter Habitat ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Shade Coffee ◽  
Annual Survival

Abstract In the Neotropics, coffee production occurs on a large scale in some of the planet’s most biodiverse regions: tropical mountains. Coffee production systems involving shade trees are considered to have a lower impact on biodiversity than alternative sun coffee. To date, the majority of evidence for the value of shade coffee plantations has not taken into account the relative quality of this habitat compared to the native forests they replaced. We determined the suitability of shade coffee and forest as winter habitat for Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) by comparing variation in the likelihood of capturing individuals, seasonal changes in body condition, and estimates of annual survival between the 2 habitats. We also determined the effect of the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event on survival. Males were relatively more likely to be captured in forest than females and this likelihood increased during drier years. Body condition change over the winter and apparent annual survival were similar for individuals that used forest and coffee. However, condition and survival decreased in both habitats during the El Niño year. Apparent survival was also lower for individuals carrying a radiotag or geolocator. Our findings suggest that shade coffee with high canopy cover and height offers similar benefits to forest in terms of body condition and survival. Landscape conservation approaches, promoting diverse matrices of structurally complex shade coffee and forest might best ensure long-term survival in Neotropical migrants like Canada Warbler.

Using Satellite Altimeter and SST Observations of the 1997-1998 El Nino to Check the Key Ocean Processes Involved in a Strong El Nino.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Webb ◽  
Andrew Coward ◽  
Helen Snaith
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Satellite Altimeter ◽  
The North ◽  
Satellite Sst ◽  
Model Study ◽  
North Equatorial Counter Current ◽  
Equatorial Current

<p>A recent high-resolution ocean model study of the strong El Ninos of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 highlighted a previously neglected ocean mechanism which was active during their growth.   The mechanism involved a weakening of both the Equatorial Current and the tropical instability eddies in mid-ocean.  It also involved an increase in the strength of the North Equatorial Counter Current due to the passage of the annual Rossby wave.</p><p>      This presentation reports how satellite altimeter and satellite SST data was used to validate the model results the key areas, confirming the changes in the current and eddy fields and the resulting eastward extension of the region of highest SST values.  The SST changes were sufficient to trigger new regions deep-atmospheric convection and so had the potential to have a significant impact on the development of the El Nino and the resulting changes in the large scale atmospheric circulation.</p>

scholarly journals Observation of ENSO linked changes in the tropical Atlantic cloud vertical distribution using 14 years of MODIS observations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Madenach ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
René Preusker ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Jürgen Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
High Cloud ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Linear Decrease

Abstract. 14 years (September 2002 to September 2016) of Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly mean cloud data is analyzed to identify possible changes of the cloud vertical distribution over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO). For the analysis multiple linear regression techniques are used. Within the investigated period, no significant trend in the domain-averaged cloud vertical distribution was found. In terms of linear changes, two major phases (before and after November 2011) in the time-series of the TAO domain-average Cloud Top Height (CTH) and High Cloud Fraction (HCF) can be distinguished. While phase 1 is dominated by a significant linear increase, phase 2 is characterized by a strong, significant linear decrease. The observed trends were mainly caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The increase in CTH and HCF in phase 1, was attributed to the transition from El Niño (2002) to La Niña (2011) conditions. The strong decrease in phase 2, was caused by the opposite transition from a La Niña (2011) to a major El Niño event (2016). A comparison with the large scale vertical motion ω at 500 hPa obtained from ERA-Interim ECMWF Re-Analyses and the Nino3.4-Index indicates that the changes in HCF are induced by ENSO linked changes in the large scale vertical upward movements over regions with strong large scale ascent. A first comparison with the DARDAR data set, which combines CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar measurements, shows qualitatively good agreements for the interannual variability of the high cloud amount and its linear decrease in phase 2.

scholarly journals Analysis and quantification of ENSO-linked changes in the tropical Atlantic cloud vertical distribution using 14 years of MODIS observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 13535-13546
Author(s):  
Nils Madenach ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
René Preusker ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Jürgen Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
High Cloud

Abstract. A total of 14 years (September 2002 to September 2016) of Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly mean cloud data are used to quantify possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution over the tropical Atlantic. For the analysis multiple linear regression techniques are used. For the investigated time period significant linear changes were found in the domain-averaged cloud-top height (CTH) (−178 m per decade), the high-cloud fraction (HCF) (−0.0006 per decade), and the low-cloud amount (0.001 per decade). The interannual variability of the time series (especially CTH and HCF) is highly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Separating the time series into two phases, we quantified the linear change associated with the transition from more La Niña-like conditions to a phase with El Niño conditions (Phase 2) and vice versa (Phase 1). The transition from negative to positive ENSO conditions was related to a decrease in total cloud fraction (TCF) (−0.018 per decade; not significant) due to a reduction in the high-cloud amount (−0.024 per decade; significant). Observed anomalies in the mean CTH were found to be mainly caused by changes in HCF rather than by anomalies in the height of cloud tops themselves. Using the large-scale vertical motion ω at 500 hPa (from ERA-Interim ECMWF reanalysis data), the observed anomalies were linked to ENSO-induced changes in the atmospheric large-scale dynamics. The most significant and largest changes were found in regions with strong large-scale upward movements near the Equator. Despite the fact that with passive imagers such as MODIS it is not possible to vertically resolve clouds, this study shows the great potential for large-scale analysis of possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution due to the changing climate by using vertically resolved cloud cover and linking those changes to large-scale dynamics using other observations or model data.

scholarly journals What Is the Impact of Additional Tropical Observations on a Modern Data Assimilation System?

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (7) ◽  
pp. 2433-2449
Author(s):  
Laura C. Slivinski ◽  
Gilbert P. Compo ◽  
Jeffrey S. Whitaker ◽  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh ◽  
Jih-Wang A. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Observational Network ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract Given the network of satellite and aircraft observations around the globe, do additional in situ observations impact analyses within a global forecast system? Despite the dense observational network at many levels in the tropical troposphere, assimilating additional sounding observations taken in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during the 2016 El Niño Rapid Response (ENRR) locally improves wind, temperature, and humidity 6-h forecasts using a modern assimilation system. Fields from a 50-km reanalysis that assimilates all available observations, including those taken during the ENRR, are compared with those from an otherwise-identical reanalysis that denies all ENRR observations. These observations reveal a bias in the 200-hPa divergence of the assimilating model during a strong El Niño. While the existing observational network partially corrects this bias, the ENRR observations provide a stronger mean correction in the analysis. Significant improvements in the mean-square fit of the first-guess fields to the assimilated ENRR observations demonstrate that they are valuable within the existing network. The effects of the ENRR observations are pronounced in levels of the troposphere that are sparsely observed, particularly 500–800 hPa. Assimilating ENRR observations has mixed effects on the mean-square difference with nearby non-ENRR observations. Using a similar system but with a higher-resolution forecast model yields comparable results to the lower-resolution system. These findings imply a limited improvement in large-scale forecast variability from additional in situ observations, but significant improvements in local 6-h forecasts.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Fiji Region: Spatial Patterns and Relationship to Large-Scale Circulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 3877-3893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Kevin J. E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
La Nina

Abstract This study examines the variations in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis positions and their subsequent tracks for different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga region (FST region) using Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-track data. Over the 36-yr period from 1970/71 to 2005/06, 122 cyclones are observed in the FST region. A large spread in the genesis positions is noted. During El Niño years, genesis is enhanced east of the date line, extending from north of Fiji to over Samoa, with the highest density centered around 10°S, 180°. During neutral years, maximum genesis occurs immediately north of Fiji with enhanced genesis south of Samoa. In La Niña years, there are fewer cyclones forming in the region than during El Niño and neutral years. During La Niña years, the genesis positions are displaced poleward of 12°S, with maximum density centered around 15°S, 170°E and south of Fiji. The cyclone tracks over the FST region are also investigated using cluster analysis. Tracks during the period 1970/71–2005/06 are conveniently described using three separate clusters, with distinct characteristics associated with different ENSO phases. Finally, the role of large-scale environmental factors affecting interannual variability of TC genesis positions and their subsequent tracks in the FST region are investigated. Favorable genesis positions are observed where large-scale environments have the following seasonal average thresholds: (i) 850-hPa cyclonic relative vorticity between −16 and −4 (×10−6 s−1), (ii) 200-hPa divergence between 2 and 8 (×10−6 s−1), and (iii) environmental vertical wind shear between 0 and 8 m s−1. The subsequent TC tracks are observed to be steered by mean 700–500-hPa winds.

scholarly journals Toward Identifying Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Using North American Weather Regimes

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1875
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Nicolas Vigaud ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Graphical Tool

Abstract Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model’s forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify “forecasts of opportunity” when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability of Summer Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific Depicted by CFSR and Associated Large-Scale Processes and ISO Modulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1771-1787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jau-Ming Chen ◽  
Pei-Hua Tan ◽  
Liang Wu ◽  
Hui-Shan Chen ◽  
Jin-Shuen Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific

This study examines the interannual variability of summer tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall (TCR) in the western North Pacific (WNP) depicted by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). This interannual variability exhibits a maximum region near Taiwan (19°–28°N, 120°–128°E). Significantly increased TCR in this region is modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related large-scale processes. They feature elongated sea surface temperature warming in the tropical eastern Pacific and a southeastward-intensified monsoon trough. Increased TC movements are facilitated by interannual southerly/southeasterly flows in the northeastern periphery of the intensified monsoon trough to move from the tropical WNP toward the region near Taiwan, resulting in increased TCR. The coherent dynamic relations between interannual variability of summer TCR and large-scale environmental processes justify CFSR as being able to reasonably depict interannual characteristics of summer TCR in the WNP. For intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) modulations, TCs tend to cluster around the center of a 10–24-day cyclonic anomaly and follow its northwestward propagation from the tropical WNP toward the region near Taiwan. The above TC movements are subject to favorable background conditions provided by a northwest–southeasterly extending 30–60-day cyclonic anomaly. Summer TCR tends to increase (decrease) during El Niño (La Niña) years and strong (weak) ISO years. By comparing composite TCR anomalies and correlations with TCR variability, it is found that ENSO is more influential than ISO in modulating the interannual variability of summer TCR in the WNP.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Mode Impacts on the Sea Level over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 2224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal A. Alawad ◽  
Abdullah M. Al-Subhi ◽  
Mohammed A. Alsaafani ◽  
Turki M. Alraddadi ◽  
Monica Ionita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Gulf Of Aden ◽  
The Impact

Falling between seasonal cycle variability and the impact of local drivers, the sea level in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has been given less consideration, especially with large-scale modes. With multiple decades of satellite altimetry observations combined with good spatial resolution, the time has come for diagnosis of the impact of large-scale modes on the sea level in those important semi-enclosed basins. While the annual cycle of sea level appeared as a dominant cycle using spectral analysis, the semi-annual one was also found, although much weaker. The first empirical orthogonal function mode explained, on average, about 65% of the total variance throughout the seasons, while their principal components clearly captured the strong La Niña event (1999–2001) in all seasons. The sea level showed a strong positive relation with positive phase El Niño Southern Oscillation in all seasons and a strong negative relation with East Atlantic/West Russia during winter and spring over the study period (1993–2017). We show that the unusually stronger easterly winds that are displaced north of the equator generate an upwelling area near the Sumatra coast and they drive both warm surface and deep-water masses toward the West Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, rising sea level over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This process could explain the increase of sea level in the basin during the positive phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation events.

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