scholarly journals What Is the Impact of Additional Tropical Observations on a Modern Data Assimilation System?

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (7) ◽  
pp. 2433-2449
Author(s):  
Laura C. Slivinski ◽  
Gilbert P. Compo ◽  
Jeffrey S. Whitaker ◽  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh ◽  
Jih-Wang A. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Observational Network ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract Given the network of satellite and aircraft observations around the globe, do additional in situ observations impact analyses within a global forecast system? Despite the dense observational network at many levels in the tropical troposphere, assimilating additional sounding observations taken in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during the 2016 El Niño Rapid Response (ENRR) locally improves wind, temperature, and humidity 6-h forecasts using a modern assimilation system. Fields from a 50-km reanalysis that assimilates all available observations, including those taken during the ENRR, are compared with those from an otherwise-identical reanalysis that denies all ENRR observations. These observations reveal a bias in the 200-hPa divergence of the assimilating model during a strong El Niño. While the existing observational network partially corrects this bias, the ENRR observations provide a stronger mean correction in the analysis. Significant improvements in the mean-square fit of the first-guess fields to the assimilated ENRR observations demonstrate that they are valuable within the existing network. The effects of the ENRR observations are pronounced in levels of the troposphere that are sparsely observed, particularly 500–800 hPa. Assimilating ENRR observations has mixed effects on the mean-square difference with nearby non-ENRR observations. Using a similar system but with a higher-resolution forecast model yields comparable results to the lower-resolution system. These findings imply a limited improvement in large-scale forecast variability from additional in situ observations, but significant improvements in local 6-h forecasts.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Mode Impacts on the Sea Level over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 2224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal A. Alawad ◽  
Abdullah M. Al-Subhi ◽  
Mohammed A. Alsaafani ◽  
Turki M. Alraddadi ◽  
Monica Ionita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Gulf Of Aden ◽  
The Impact

Falling between seasonal cycle variability and the impact of local drivers, the sea level in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has been given less consideration, especially with large-scale modes. With multiple decades of satellite altimetry observations combined with good spatial resolution, the time has come for diagnosis of the impact of large-scale modes on the sea level in those important semi-enclosed basins. While the annual cycle of sea level appeared as a dominant cycle using spectral analysis, the semi-annual one was also found, although much weaker. The first empirical orthogonal function mode explained, on average, about 65% of the total variance throughout the seasons, while their principal components clearly captured the strong La Niña event (1999–2001) in all seasons. The sea level showed a strong positive relation with positive phase El Niño Southern Oscillation in all seasons and a strong negative relation with East Atlantic/West Russia during winter and spring over the study period (1993–2017). We show that the unusually stronger easterly winds that are displaced north of the equator generate an upwelling area near the Sumatra coast and they drive both warm surface and deep-water masses toward the West Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, rising sea level over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This process could explain the increase of sea level in the basin during the positive phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation events.

scholarly journals 1997/98 El Niño–Induced Changes in Rainfall Vertical Structure in the East Pacific

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (24) ◽  
pp. 6373-6391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Qilong Min ◽  
Yunfei Fu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Surface Rain Rate ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The 1997/98 El Niño–induced changes in rainfall vertical structure in the east Pacific (EP) are investigated by using collocated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and associated daily SST and 6-hourly reanalysis data during January, February, March, and April of 1998, 1999, and 2000. This study shows that there are five key parameters, that is, surface rain rate, precipitation-top height (or temperature), and precipitation growth rates at upper, middle, and low layers to define a rainfall profile, and those five key parameters are strongly influenced by both SST and large-scale dynamics. Under the influence of 1997/98 El Niño, the precipitation-top heights in the EP were systematically higher by about 1 km than those under non–El Niño conditions, while the freezing level was about 0.5 km higher. Under the constraints of rain type, surface rain rate, and the precipitation top, the shape of rainfall profile still showed significant differences: the rain growth was relatively faster in the mid-layer (−5° to +2°C isotherm) but slower in the lower layer (below +2°C isotherm) under the influence of El Niño. It is also evident that the dependence of precipitation top height on SST was stronger under large-scale decent (non–El Niño) circulations but much weaker under large-scale ascent (El Niño) circulations. The combined effect of larger vertical extent and greater growth rate in the middle layer further shifted latent heating upward as compared with the impact of horizontal changes in the rain type fractions (convective versus stratiform). Such additional latent heating shift would certainly further elevate circulation centers and strengthen the upper-layer circulation.

scholarly journals ENSO-driven fluctuations in oxygen supply and vertical extent of oxygen-poor waters in the oxygen minimum zone of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonss Saranga José ◽  
Lothar Stramma ◽  
Sunke Schmidtko ◽  
Andreas Oschlies
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Oxygen Supply ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Vertical Extent ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Minimum Zone ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
Oxygen Minimum

Abstract. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phase has strong impacts on marine ecosystems off Peru. This influence extends from changes in nutrient availability to productivity and oxygen levels. While several studies have demonstrated the influence of ENSO events on biological productivity, less is known about their impact on oxygen concentrations. In situ observations along the Peruvian and Chilean coast have shown a strong water column oxygenation during the 1997/1998 strong El Niño event. These observations suggest a deepening of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) along the continental shelf. However, due to reduced spatial coverage of the existing in situ observations, no studies have yet demonstrated the OMZ response to El Niño events in the whole Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP). Furthermore, most studies have focused on El Niño events. Much less attention was given to the oxygen dynamics under La Niña influence. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the ENSO influence on OMZ dynamics. Interannual variability of the OMZ during the period 1990–2010 is derived from a regional coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with realistic atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions. Our results show a reduction of the vertical extent and a deepening of suboxic waters (SW) during the El Niño phase. During the La Niña phase, there is a vertical expansion of SW. These fluctuations in OMZ extent are due to changes in oxygen supply into its core depth mainly from lateral margins. During the El Niño phase, the enhanced lateral oxygen supply from the subtropics is the main reason for the reduction of SW in both coastal and offshore regions. During the La Niña phase, the oxygenated subtropical waters are blocked by the poleward transport along the southern margin of the OMZ. Consequently, oxygen concentrations within the OMZ are reduced and suboxic conditions expand during La Niña. The detailed analysis of transport pathways presented here provides new insights into how ENSO variability affects the oxygen-sensitive marine biogeochemistry of the ETSP.

scholarly journals The Northeast Winter Monsoon over the Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia: Evolution, Interannual Variability, and Model Simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agniv Sengupta ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Peninsular India ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The northeast monsoon (NEM) brings the bulk of annual rainfall to southeastern peninsular India, Sri Lanka, and the neighboring Southeast Asian countries. This October–December monsoon is referred to as the winter monsoon in this region. In contrast, the southwest summer monsoon brings bountiful rainfall to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The winter monsoon region is objectively demarcated from analysis of the timing of peak monthly rainfall. Because of the region’s complex terrain, in situ precipitation datasets are assessed using high-spatiotemporal-resolution Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates, prior to their use in monsoon evolution, variability, and trend analyses. The Global Precipitation Climatology Center’s in situ analysis showed the least bias from TRMM. El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO) impact on NEM rainfall is shown to be significant, leading to stronger NEM rainfall over southeastern peninsular India and Sri Lanka but diminished rainfall over Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The impact varies subseasonally, being weak in October and strong in November. The positive anomalies over peninsular India are generated by anomalous anticyclonic flow centered over the Bay of Bengal, which is forced by an El Niño–related reduction in deep convection over the Maritime Continent. The historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment (IPCC-AR5) show varied deficiencies in the NEM rainfall distribution and a markedly weaker (and often unrealistic) ENSO–NEM rainfall relationship.

scholarly journals The Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Temperature: A Case Study in Kuching, Sarawak

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-297
Author(s):  
Ricky Anak Kemarau ◽  
Oliver Valentine Eboy
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is a climate event that has an impact on the world climate. The effects of ENSO are often associated with prolonged droughts and floods since 1980 following global climate change. In addition to causing flooding and drought. Indirectly, the occurrence of ENSO causes health problems, environmental destruction, affecting economic activities such as agriculture and fisheries. Many studies on ENSO have been conducted. However, there is still a lack of research on the effect of ENSO on temperature in local knowledge areas, especially urban areas because the urban environment especially building materials that can absorb and release heat. In addition, previous studies have focused on large-scale areas. Beside that there still gap to understand and increase knowledge about the effect of ENSO on local temperatures, especially in urban areas. This study uses meteorological data and Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) from 1988 to 2019. This study found that the occurrence of ENSO has an effect on the value of daily temperature but differs based on the value of the ONI index. In addition, this study uses linear regression in predicting the effect of ENSO on temperature. The results of this study are useful to those responsible for understanding the impact of ENSO on temperature in urban areas to provide infrastructure in reducing the impact of ENSO as well as adjustment measures during the occurrence of ENSO.

Climatic and atmospheric indices teleconnection impact on the characteristics of frost season in western Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-401
Author(s):  
Zohreh Maryanaji ◽  
Leili Tapak ◽  
Omid Hamidi
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Western Iran ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The large-scale variability of atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns cause seasonal climate changes in the Earth. In other words, climate elements are affected by phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño (NINO), and Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study the characteristics of the frost season over a 20-year period (1996–2015) from seven synoptic stations in western Iran were evaluated using support vector machine and random forest regression. Comparing determination coefficients obtained by these models between atmospheric and ocean circulation indices and the characteristics of the frost season showed a positive effect. Thus, the onset and the end of the frost season in this region were highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and NAO, respectively. In regions with lower correlations (central areas and some regions of Alvand Mountain), the role of the geographical factors, altitude and topography becomes more pronounced and the impact of the global indices is reduced. Cluster analysis was also conducted to detect patterns and to identify regions according to the effect of the atmospheric and oceanic indices on frost season, and three regions were identified. The largest correlations with global indices (in both models) belonged to the first and third classes, respectively. The results of this study could be applied for planning environmental and agricultural activities.

scholarly journals The Antarctic Circumpolar Wave: Its Presence and Interdecadal Changes during the Last 142 Years

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6371-6389 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cerrone ◽  
G. Fusco ◽  
Y. Cotroneo ◽  
I. Simmonds ◽  
G. Budillon
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Antarctic Circumpolar Wave ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Interdecadal Changes

The Southern Ocean (SO) is the region of the World Ocean bordering on Antarctica over which significant exchanges between the atmosphere, the ocean, and the sea ice take place. Here, the strong and nearly unhindered eastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current plays an important role in mean global climate as it transmits climate anomalies around the hemisphere. Features of interannual variability have been observed to propagate eastward around the SO with the circumpolar flow in the form of a system of coupled anomalies, known as the Antarctic circumpolar wave (ACW). In the present study, the 142-yr series of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2, dataset (850-hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, surface meridional wind, and surface air temperature) spanning from 1871 to 2012 is used to investigate the presence and variability of ACWs. This examination shows, for the first time, the presence of the ACW before the mid-1950s and interdecadal changes in its characteristics. Modifications in the strength and speed of the circumpolar wave are shown to be linked with large-scale climate changes. Complex empirical orthogonal function analyses confirm that the ACW becomes apparent when the tropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal gives rise to the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern and is a consequence of the constructive combination of the PSA and the subantarctic zonal wavenumber 3. Correlation analyses are also performed to quantify the role played by ENSO teleconnections for the appearance of the ACW, and the impact on the presence of ACWs of three super–El Niño events is investigated.

Net Energy Dissipation Rates in the Tropical Ocean and ENSO Dynamics

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1108-1117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey V. Fedorov
Keyword(s):  
Energy Dissipation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Enso Dynamics ◽  
Damping Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract How unstable is the tropical ocean–atmosphere system? Are two successive El Niño events independent, or are they part of a continual (perhaps weakly damped) cycle sustained by random atmospheric disturbances? How important is energy dissipation for ENSO dynamics? These closely related questions are frequently raised in connection with several climate problems ranging from El Niño predictability to the impact of atmospheric “noise” on ENSO. One of the factors influencing the system’s stability and other relevant properties is the damping (decay) time scale for the thermocline anomalies associated with the large-scale oceanic motion. Here this time scale is estimated by considering energy balance and net energy dissipation in the tropical ocean and it is shown that there are two distinct dissipative regimes: in the interannual frequency band the damping rate is approximately (2.3 yr)−1; however, in a near-annual frequency range the damping appears to be much stronger, roughly (8 months)−1.

scholarly journals How essential are Argo observations to constrain a global ocean data assimilation system?

Ocean Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Turpin ◽  
E. Remy ◽  
P. Y. Le Traon
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Argo Data ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. Observing system experiments (OSEs) are carried out over a 1-year period to quantify the impact of Argo observations on the Mercator Ocean 0.25° global ocean analysis and forecasting system. The reference simulation assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), SSALTO/DUACS (Segment Sol multi-missions dALTimetrie, d'orbitographie et de localisation précise/Data unification and Altimeter combination system) altimeter data and Argo and other in situ observations from the Coriolis data center. Two other simulations are carried out where all Argo and half of the Argo data are withheld. Assimilating Argo observations has a significant impact on analyzed and forecast temperature and salinity fields at different depths. Without Argo data assimilation, large errors occur in analyzed fields as estimated from the differences when compared with in situ observations. For example, in the 0–300 m layer RMS (root mean square) differences between analyzed fields and observations reach 0.25 psu and 1.25 °C in the western boundary currents and 0.1 psu and 0.75 °C in the open ocean. The impact of the Argo data in reducing observation–model forecast differences is also significant from the surface down to a depth of 2000 m. Differences between in situ observations and forecast fields are thus reduced by 20 % in the upper layers and by up to 40 % at a depth of 2000 m when Argo data are assimilated. At depth, the most impacted regions in the global ocean are the Mediterranean outflow, the Gulf Stream region and the Labrador Sea. A significant degradation can be observed when only half of the data are assimilated. Therefore, Argo observations matter to constrain the model solution, even for an eddy-permitting model configuration. The impact of the Argo floats' data assimilation on other model variables is briefly assessed: the improvement of the fit to Argo profiles do not lead globally to unphysical corrections on the sea surface temperature and sea surface height. The main conclusion is that the performance of the Mercator Ocean 0.25° global data assimilation system is heavily dependent on the availability of Argo data.

scholarly journals History of El Niño impacts on the global carbon cycle 1957–2017: a quantification from atmospheric CO 2 data

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170303 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rödenbeck ◽  
S. Zaehle ◽  
R. Keeling ◽  
M. Heimann
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Net Ecosystem Exchange ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The Impact

Interannual variations in the large-scale net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere were estimated for 1957–2017 from sustained measurements of atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratios. As the observations are sparse in the early decades, available records were combined into a ‘quasi-homogeneous’ dataset based on similarity in their signals, to minimize spurious variations from beginning or ending data records. During El Niño events, CO 2 is anomalously released from the tropical band, and a few months later also in the northern extratropical band. This behaviour can approximately be represented by a linear relationship of the NEE anomalies and local air temperature anomalies, with sensitivity coefficients depending on geographical location and season. The apparent climate sensitivity of global total NEE against variations in pan-tropically averaged annual air temperature slowly changed over time during the 1957–2017 period, first increasing (though less strongly than in previous studies) but then decreasing again. However, only part of this change can be attributed to actual changes in local physiological or ecosystem processes, the rest probably arising from shifts in the geographical area of dominating temperature variations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

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