O30 NON-RADICAL ESOPHAGECTOMY FOR ESOPHAGEAL CANCER; A NATIONWIDE STUDY ON INCIDENCE, RISK FACTORS AND OUTCOMES IN SWEDEN

Abstract Aim To identify potential risk factors for a microscopically non-radical esophageal cancer resection (R1) and investigate how such a resection affects long-term survival. Background & Methods Esophageal cancer resections that are considered R1 have been associated with worse survival. The Swedish National Register for Esophageal and Gastric Cancer includes information on all esophageal cancer resections in Sweden. All patients having undergone esophageal resection with curative intent 2006-2017 were included. Risk factors for R1 resection were assessed through logistic regression. Factors predicting five-year survival were assessed through Cox-regression, adjusted for T-stage, N-stage, age and R-status. Results The study included 1,504 patients. The margins were microscopically involved in 146 patients (10%). Of these the circumferential margin was involved in 115 (8%). The proximal margin was involved in 55 patients (4%) and the distal in 30 (2%). In 54 (4%) specimens two margins were involved. Independent risk factors for R1-resection were absence of neoadjuvant treatment and clinical T3 stage or higher. The 5-year survival for the entire cohort was 41%, but only 19% for those with an R1 resection. Independent risk factors for death within 5-year from resection were regional lymph node metastasis (Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.6 (95% CI 2.2-3.1), histopathological stage T3 or higher (HR 1.2 95% CI 1.1-1.5), age above 60 years and R1-resection (HR 1.6 95% CI 1.4-2.0) Conclusion Involved margin in the resected specimen is an independent risk factor predicting worse 5-year survival. Besides striving for adequate surgical margins, the rate of R1-resections could be decreased through neoadjuvant treatment in fit patients.

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Cox Regression Analysis of 1739 Emergency Trauma Patients

10.21203/rs.3.rs-29650/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jun Shen ◽

Feng Xu ◽

Du Chen

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Oxygen Saturation ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Trauma Patients ◽

Term Survival ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Revised Trauma Score ◽

Independent Risk Factors ◽

Trauma Score

Abstract BACKGROUND: Trauma is a damage caused by physical harm from external source. It has been one of the major causes of mortality. The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors related to mortality among emergency trauma patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective study in trauma center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. The data were obtained from trauma database with patients registered from November 1, 2016 to November 30, 2019.Shapiro–Wilk test, Mann-Whitney test and Likelihood-ratio Chi squared test were used to assess the survival pattern. Cox regressions were performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) of variables for death. RESULTS: The total 1739 emergency trauma patients, 44 (2.53%) died during the study period and 1695 (97.47%) were survival. Through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis, three independent risk factors for emergency death were screened out: pulse (Crude HR: 0.97, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.96-0.98; Adjuste HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06), pulse oxygen saturation (Crude HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.97; Adjuste HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and Revised Trauma Score (Crude HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.65-0.74; Adjuste HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.64-0.97).CONCLUSION: The survival outcome of emergency trauma patients was influenced by many factors. Pulse, pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2 ) and Revised Trauma Score (RTS) were the independent risk factors for mortality. Accurate analysis and judgment of the risk factors can improve cure efficiency and long-term survival rate.

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Coagulopathy on the first postoperative day predicting the long-term survival of traumatic brain injury patients

10.21203/rs.2.23641/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Wenxing Cui ◽

Shunnan Ge ◽

Yingwu Shi ◽

Xun Wu ◽

Jianing Luo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Term Survival ◽

Long Term Survival ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Independent Risk Factors ◽

The Relationship ◽

Underlying Risk

Abstract Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between coagulopathy during the perioperative period (before the operation and on the first day after the operation) and the long-term survival of TBI patients undergoing surgery, as well as to explore the predisposing risk factors that may cause perioperative coagulopathy.Methods: This retrospective study included 447 TBI patients who underwent surgery from January 1, 2015 to April 25, 2019. Clinical parameters, including patient demographic characteristics, biochemical tests, perioperative coagulation function tests (before the operation and on the first day after the operation) and intraoperative factors were collected. Log-rank univariate analysis and Cox regression models were conducted to assess the relationship between perioperative coagulopathy and the long-term survival of TBI patients. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the underlying risk factors for perioperative coagulopathy.Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified age, AIS(head) = 5, GCS ≤ 8, systolic pressure at admission < 90 mmHg and postoperative coagulopathy (all P < 0.05) as independent risk factors for survival following TBI; we were the first to identify postoperative coagulopathy as an independent risk factor. According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, for the first time, abnormal ALT and RBC at admission, preoperative coagulopathy, infusion of colloidal solution > 1100 mL and intraoperative bleeding > 950 mL (all P < 0.005) were identified as independent risk factors for postoperative coagulation following surgery after TBI.Conclusions: Those who suffered from postoperative coagulopathy due to TBI had a higher hazard for poor prognosis than those who did not. Closer attention should be paid to postoperative coagulopathy and more emphasis should be placed on managing the underlying risk factors.

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O45 THE ASSOCIATION OF PERIOPERATIVE QUALITY-OF-CARE PARAMETERS (TEXTBOOK OUTCOME) WITH LONG TERM OUTCOME AFTER ESOPHAGECTOMY FOR ESOPHAGEAL CANCER

Diseases of the Esophagus ◽

10.1093/dote/doz092.45 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (Supplement_2) ◽

Author(s):

M C Kalff ◽

I Vesseur ◽

W Eshuis ◽

D Heineman ◽

F Daams ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Overall Survival ◽

Esophageal Cancer ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Neoadjuvant Treatment ◽

Recurrence Rates ◽

Term Survival ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Asa Score

Abstract Aim The objectives of this study were to confirm the association of textbook outcome (TO) and overall long-term survival after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer, to investigate the relationship of TO and recurrence rates and to identify clinicopathological predictors for not achieving TO. Background & Methods Despite current improvements in the multimodal treatment of esophageal cancer, surgery remains the key component. Therefore, it is essential to optimize the surgical procedure and to pursue the highest surgical quality. TO is a composite measure of ten perioperative parameters reflecting the quality of surgical care concerning esophagectomy. All patients with esophageal cancer who underwent a transthoracic or transhiatal esophagectomy with curative intent in two tertiary referral centers in The Netherlands between 2007-2016 were included. Patients with a carcinoma in situ, patients undergoing salvage or emergency procedure and patients that applied for opt-out were excluded. Clinicopathological predictors for not achieving TO were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier life-table estimates and cox regression. Results In total, 1057 patients were included. Over time, the percentage of patients who achieved TO increased from 28.9% in 2007 to 37.5% in 2016. BMI under 18.5, ASA score above one and age above 65 years were associated with a worse TO rate (OR 2.72 [1.02-7.24], ASA 2 OR 1.57 [1.13-2.17] and ASA 3+4 OR 2.33 [1.56-3.48], OR 1.387 [1.06-1.81], respectively), whereas neoadjuvant treatment predicted a better TO rate (OR 0.58 [0.41-0.81]). The median overall survival was 53 months (95% CI 42 – 63) for patients with TO and 35 months (95% CI 29 – 41) for patients without TO; resulting in an overall survival benefit of 18 months (HR 0.759, 95% CI 0.636 – 0.906, P = 0.002). The recurrence rates between TO and no-TO differed, but was not statistically significant (47.1% vs 42.8%, P = 0.177). Conclusion BMI less than 18.5, ASA-score higher than one and age older than 65 were characteristics associated with not achieving TO. Neoadjuvant therapy was associated with a better TO rate. Achieved TO resulted in a better overall five-year survival indicating the importance of pursuing TO.

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Long‐Term Fate of the Truncal Valve

Journal of the American Heart Association ◽

10.1161/jaha.120.019104 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (22) ◽

Author(s):

Laura Gellis ◽

Geoffrey Binney ◽

Laith Alshawabkeh ◽

Minmin Lu ◽

Michael J. Landzberg ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Truncus Arteriosus ◽

Valve Regurgitation ◽

Term Survival ◽

Factors Associated ◽

Patients At Risk ◽

Independent Risk Factors

Background Long‐term survival in patients with truncus arteriosus is favorable, but there remains significant morbidity associated with ongoing reinterventions. We aimed to study the long‐term outcomes of the truncal valve and identify risk factors associated with truncal valve intervention. Methods and Results We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent initial truncus arteriosus repair at our institution from 1985 to 2016. Analysis was performed on the 148 patients who were discharged from the hospital and survived ≥30 days postoperatively using multivariable competing risks Cox regression modeling. Median follow‐up time was 12.6 years (interquartile range, 5.0–22.1 years) after discharge from full repair. Thirty patients (20%) underwent at least one intervention on the truncal valve during follow‐up. Survival at 1, 10, and 20 years was 93.1%, 87.0%, and 80.9%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of any truncal valve intervention by 20 years was 25.6%. Independent risk factors for truncal valve intervention included moderate or greater truncal valve regurgitation (hazard ratio [HR], 4.77; P <0.001) or stenosis (HR, 4.12; P <0.001) before full truncus arteriosus repair and moderate or greater truncal valve regurgitation at discharge after full repair (HR, 8.60; P <0.001). During follow‐up, 33 of 134 patients (25%) progressed to moderate or greater truncal valve regurgitation. A larger truncal valve root z ‐score before truncus arteriosus full repair and during follow‐up was associated with worsening truncal valve regurgitation. Conclusions Long‐term rates of truncal valve intervention are significant. At least moderate initial truncal valve stenosis and initial or residual regurgitation are independent risk factors associated with truncal valve intervention. Larger truncal valve root z ‐score is associated with significant truncal valve regurgitation and may identify a subset of patients at risk for truncal valve dysfunction over time.

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O6: EARLY ANASTOMOTIC BILIARY COMPLICATIONS AFTER LIVER TRANSPLANTATION

British Journal of Surgery ◽

10.1093/bjs/znab117.006 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 108 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

SJ Tingle ◽

ER Thompson ◽

SS Ali ◽

IK Ibrahim ◽

E Irwin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Liver Transplantation ◽

Hospital Stay ◽

Graft Survival ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Biliary Complications ◽

Anastomotic Strictures ◽

Selection Of Variables ◽

Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Introduction Biliary leaks and anastomotic strictures are common early biliary complications (EBC) following liver transplantation. However, their impact on outcomes remains controversial and poorly described. Method The NHS registry on adult liver transplantation between 2006 and 2017 was retrospectively reviewed (n=8304). Multiple imputations were performed to account for missing data. Adjusted regression models were used to assess predictors of EBC, and their impact on outcomes. 35 potential variables were included, and backwards stepwise selection enabled unbiased selection of variables for inclusion in final models. Result EBC occurred in 9.6% of patients. Adjusted cox regression revealed that EBCs have a significant and independent impact on graft survival (Leak HR=1.325; P=0.021, Stricture HR=1.514; P=0.002, Leak plus stricture HR=1.533; P=0.034) and patient survival (Leak HR=1.218; P=0.131, Stricture HR=1.578; P<0.001, Leak plus stricture HR=1.507; P=0.044). Patients with EBC had longer median hospital stay (23 versus 15 days; P<0.001) and increased chance for readmission within the first year (56% versus 32%; P<0.001). On adjusted logistic regression the following were identified as independent risk factors for development of EBC: donation following circulatory death (OR=1.280; P=0.009), accessory hepatic artery (OR=1.324; P=0.005), vascular anastomosis time in minutes (OR=1.005; P=0.032) and ethnicity ‘other’ (OR=1.838; P=0.011). Conclusion EBCs prolong hospital stay, increase readmission rates and are independent risk factors for diminished graft survival and increased mortality in liver transplantation. We have identified factors that increase the likelihood of EBC occurrence; further research into interventions to prevent EBCs in these at-risk groups is vital to improve liver transplantation outcomes. Take-home message Using a large registry database we have shown that early anastomotic biliary complications are independent risk factors for decreased graft survival and increased mortality after liver transplantation. Research into interventions to prevent biliary complications in high risk groups are essential to improve liver transplant outcomes.

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A Prognostic Model for Patients With Gastric Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma

Technology in Cancer Research & Treatment ◽

10.1177/15330338211027912 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 ◽

pp. 153303382110279

Author(s):

Qinping Guo ◽

Yinquan Wang ◽

Jie An ◽

Siben Wang ◽

Xiushan Dong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma ◽

Signet Ring Cell ◽

Training Set ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Signet Ring ◽

Ring Cell ◽

Independent Risk Factors

Background: The aim of our study was to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC). Methods: GSRC patients from 2004 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. Multivariate Cox regression analyses screened for OS and CSS independent risk factors and nomograms were constructed. Results: A total of 7,149 eligible GSRC patients were identified, including 4,766 in the training set and 2,383 in the validation set. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that gender, marital status, race, AJCC stage, TNM stage, surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for both OS and CSS. Based on the results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis, prognostic nomograms were constructed for OS and CSS. In the training set, the C-index was 0.754 (95% CI = 0.746-0.762) for the OS nomogram and 0.762 (95% CI: 0.753-0.771) for the CSS nomogram. In the internal validation, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.758 (95% CI: 0.746-0.770), while the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.762 (95% CI: 0.749-0.775). Compared with TNM stage and SEER stage, the nomogram had better predictive ability. In addition, the calibration curves also showed good consistency between the predicted and actual 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS. Conclusion: The nomogram can effectively predict OS and CSS in patients with GSRC, which may help clinicians to personalize prognostic assessments and clinical decisions.

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Impact of the Bag Exchange Procedure on Risk of Peritonitis

Peritoneal Dialysis International ◽

10.3747/pdi.2009.00117 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 440-447 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Jie Dong ◽

Yuan Chen

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Peritoneal Dialysis ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Face Mask ◽

First Episode ◽

Independent Risk Factors ◽

Randomized Control ◽

The Relationship ◽

Control Study

ObjectiveWe studied whether improper bag exchange predicts the first peritonitis episode in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients.Patients and MethodsOur single-center prospective observational study of 130 incident urban CAPD patients who started peritoneal dialysis (PD) between March 2005 and August 2008 aimed to determine the relationship between bag exchange procedures examined at the 6th month of PD and risk for a first peritonitis episode. All patients were followed until a first peritonitis episode, censoring, or the end of the study.ResultsThese 130 patients experienced 22 first peritonitis episodes during the 14-month follow-up. During bag exchange evaluation, 51.5% of patients washed their hands improperly, 46.2% failed to check expiration date or bag leakage, and 11.5% forgot to wear a face mask and cap. Patients experiencing peritonitis were more likely to forget to wear a face mask and cap. In multivariate Cox regression model, not wearing a face mask and cap [hazard ratio (HR): 7.26; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.6 to 20.1; p < 0.001] and having anemia (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94 to 0.99; p = 0.005) were independent risk factors for a first episode of peritonitis.ConclusionsNot wearing a face mask and cap and having anemia were independent risk factors for peritonitis. A further randomized control study needs to verify the correlation between improper bag exchange technique and peritonitis in PD patients.

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Nomogram for Predicting COVID-19 Disease Progression Based on Single-Center Data: Observational Study and Model Development (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.19588 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Tao Fan ◽

Bo Hao ◽

Shuo Yang ◽

Bo Shen ◽

Zhixin Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Clinical Characteristics ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Disease Onset ◽

Lasso Regression ◽

Prediction Ability ◽

Calibration Curves ◽

Independent Risk Factors ◽

Critical Patients

BACKGROUND In late December 2019, a pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan and spread worldwide rapidly. Currently, no specific medicine is available to treat infection with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to summarize the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 175 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were hospitalized in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1 to January 31, 2020, and to establish a tool to identify potential critical patients with COVID-19 and help clinical physicians prevent progression of this disease. METHODS In this retrospective study, clinical characteristics of 175 confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected and analyzed. Univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to select variables. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify independent risk factors in COVID-19 progression. We established a nomogram to evaluate the probability of progression of the condition of a patient with COVID-19 to severe within three weeks of disease onset. The nomogram was verified using calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS A total of 18 variables were considered to be risk factors after the univariate regression analysis of the laboratory parameters (P<.05), and LASSO regression analysis screened out 10 risk factors for further study. The six independent risk factors revealed by multivariate Cox regression were age (OR 1.035, 95% CI 1.017-1.054; P<.001), CK level (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.0003-1.0039; P=.02), CD4 count (OR 0.995, 95% CI 0.992-0.998; P=.002), CD8 % (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.004-1.012, P<.001), CD8 count (OR 0.881, 95% CI 0.835-0.931; P<.001), and C3 count (OR 6.93, 95% CI 1.945-24.691; P=.003). The areas under the curve of the prediction model for 0.5-week, 1-week, 2-week and 3-week nonsevere probability were 0.721, 0.742, 0.87, and 0.832, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model had good prediction ability within three weeks of disease onset. CONCLUSIONS This study presents a predictive nomogram of critical patients with COVID-19 based on LASSO and Cox regression analysis. Clinical use of the nomogram may enable timely detection of potential critical patients with COVID-19 and instruct clinicians to administer early intervention to these patients to prevent the disease from worsening.

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The impact of the recurrent laryngeal nerve injury on prognosis after McKeown esophagectomy for ESCC

10.21203/rs.3.rs-88872/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Rirong Qu ◽

Dehao Tu ◽

Wei Ping ◽

Qi Wang ◽

Ni Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve ◽

Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Injury ◽

Laryngeal Nerve ◽

Term Survival ◽

Laryngeal Nerve Injury ◽

Independent Risk Factors ◽

Mckeown Esophagectomy ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the recurrent laryngeal nerve injury (RLNI) after esophagectomy on prognosis.Methods: Retrospectively collected data from 297 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent McKeown esophagectomy at our department from April 2014 to May 2018, were analyzed.Results: RLNI occurred in 31.9% of the patients. Left-side RLNI occurred 2.8 times more often than right-side RLNI. Among the cases in which assessment of the vocal cords was continued, 8.4% involved permanent injury. There were no significant differences among clinicopathological data between patients with RLNI and without. Compared with patients without RLNI,patients with RNLI have longer operation time,more number of bronchoscopy suctions, longer postoperation hospital stay, and higher incidence of postoperative complications. T stage, N stage, RLN LN metastasis were independent risk factors for the prognosis, but RLNI is not independent risk factors for long-term survival. Conclusion: RLNI is a serious complication that will affect the short-term prognosis of patients and reduce the quality of life of patients. It should be avoided as much as possible during surgery, but it may not have negative impact on the long-term survival.

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705 SIGNIFICANCE OF CLEAR CIRCUMFERENTIAL RESECTION MARGIN IN ESOPHAGEAL CANCER

Diseases of the Esophagus ◽

10.1093/dote/doab052.705 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Catherine Cheang ◽

Pradeep Patil

Keyword(s):

Esophageal Cancer ◽

Multimodal Therapy ◽

Resection Margin ◽

Locally Advanced ◽

Radical Resection ◽

Resection Margins ◽

R0 Resection ◽

Term Survival ◽

R1 Resection

Abstract Circumferential resection margins (CRM) of an esophagectomy specimen for oesophageal cancer is a key prognostic factor of overall survival (OS). This retrospective study aims to compare OS of post-esophagectomy patients with CRM of >1 mm (R0) and < 1 mm (R1) with further subgroup analysis of locally advanced T3R0 vs T3R1 resection. Methods A total of 110 esophagectomies conducted between 2010 and 2020 were analysed. We recorded R stage based on pathological CRM >1 mm (R0) or < 1 mm (R1). OS was calculated from the day of surgery to day of death or otherwise censored. All patients underwent multimodal therapy including chemotherapy and similar pre-surgical and post-surgical management. 58 of these patients with pT3 stage esophageal cancer (EC) were selected and compared. Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS. Results Of 110 patients, 78 (71.5%) patients had a R0 resection. Mean OS in R0 resections was 73 months (6 years) compared to 25.2 months (2 years) in R1 resection (p = 0.001). 58 of the 110 patients were pathological stage T3(pT3) despite downstaging with chemotherapy showing the burden of advanced disease. In patients with stage pT3 (n = 58), 32 patients were R0 resections, and 26 patients had R1 resections. Mean OS in T3R0 resections was 51.5 months compared to 28.5 months in T3R1 resection. OS comparison is significant (p = 0.011). Conclusion This study emphasizes the importance of clear CRM in all patients and especially in locally advanced pT3/T4a esophageal cancer in achieving long term survival. Techniques used to ensure a clear CRM such multimodality therapy combined with surgical radical resection concepts such as mesoesophagectomy should be employed.

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